10:00 US Oct ISM Manufacturing, Sept Construction Spending
11:30 US Treasury's 4-week bill auction
16:30 API Crude Oil/Gasoline/Distillate Inventories
Todays Headlines
8:00:38 AM
*(EU) ECB DRAINS €173.5B VS. €173.5B TARGETED IN 8-DAY TERM DEPOSIT TENDER
- Says 71 banks bid in the operation for total €197.9B vs. prior week of 87 bids totaling €231.4B
- Weighted Avg 0.83 v 0.85% prior
8:26:09 AM
(PO) Portugal PM Coelho: To propose IMF/EU/ECB Troika make "adjustments" to Portugal's financial assistance program - FT
- PM to propose some adjustments to our financial and economic assistance program to take into account economic realities and the evolution of Portugal's economic situation.
- To propose the adjustments to officials from the troika in November when they review Portugal's progress with the rescue agreement.
8:30:02 AM
*(CA) CANADA AUG GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT M/M: 0.3% V 0.2%E; Y/Y: 2.4% V 2.2%E
- Prior MoM revised higher from 0.3% to 0.4%
- Prior YoY revised higher from 2.3% to 2.4%
1:00:38 PM
(CA) IMF comments on Canada economy; medium term is favorable with risks to the downside; CAD is on the strong side
- Highlights that high household debts could increase negative impact of shocks from overseas
- Notes that Canada could need more measures to lower household debt and that fiscal stimulus may be necessary if major downside arises
Please read our disclaimer:
Trading has large potential rewards, but also large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the markets. The videos are neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures or options. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Rule 4.41 - Hypothetical or simulated performance results have certain limitations. Unlike an actual performance record, simulated results do not represent actual trading. Also, since the trades have not been executed, the results may have under-or-over compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profit or losses similar to those shown. Learn to trade futures forex stocks.
“The young have aspirations that never come to pass, the old have reminiscences of what never happened.”
Market Week Wrap-Up
- European and US equity indices snapped back sharply this week from weakness early on as European officials began hashing out concrete plans to backstop their banking system ahead of a potential Greece meltdown. Risk aversion drove trading coming into the week as leaked Greek budget figures indicated the country may miss 2011 and 2012 targets, forcing the EU to delay the payout of aid to Greece and postpone a key summit meeting. Adding to the dread, there was news that officials were discussing how to save French/Belgian bank Dexia, which was rapidly deteriorating after its big write down of Greek debt back in August. Both events seem to have overcome lingering skepticism in various European capitals - especially Berlin - that coping with Greece will require bank recapitalization. By mid week German Finance Minister Schaeuble was talking about reactivating the SoFFin stabilization fund, used to stabilize German banks in 2008, and the European Commission's Barroso indicated the EFSF could be used for backing the banks. France and Germany were disagreeing over the fine details, but were essentially on board with the plan (details are to be hashed out at the Oct 17th special EU summit, and Merkel and Sarkozy will have a conclave this weekend). The bank rescue talk reignited risk appetite and drove money out of USTs, Bunds and the dollar. Gold had dipped back below $1,600 and the dollar was at nine-month highs against the euro before sentiment reversed on Tuesday. On Thursday the BoE and ECB held rates steady, although the focus has been on various special measures launched by both institutions to hold down rates and boost liquidity. The US September non-farm payrolls report beat expectations with a +103K headline number and a +137K private payrolls figure, however the re-addition of 45K striking Verizon workers skewed these figures higher. The specter of recession was raised again in Europe by lower-than-expected final UK Q2 GDP data and the German September PMI falling below 50 for the first time since July 2009. A better than expected China manufacturing PMI reading, released over the weekend, eased some worries about an economic hard landing in the global growth engine. For the week the DJIA gained 1.7%, the S&P500 added 2.1% and the Nasdaq rose 2.7%.
- The euro zone leaders' summit on Wednesday dictated global market sentiment this week. Ahead of the meeting European officials worked very hard to dispel any ideas that a potential agreement would be the decisive end to the European debt crisis. France and Germany negotiated down to the wire, only coming to final agreement with Europe's major banks in the small hours of Thursday morning. In the end, Chancellor Merkel and President Sarkozy convinced the banks to take 50% haircuts on their Greek bonds and accept plans to boost their tier one capital ratio to 9% by next June. However everyone realizes that the deal raises as many questions as it answers; it also means that markets will face another wave of negotiations to settle a raft of outstanding issues in the months ahead. Fitch said the debt haircut plan would amount to a Greek default if it were carried out, even after the International Swaps and Derivatives Association (ISDA) said they believed the "voluntary" nature of the exchange would not trigger CDS. The equity rally that followed the deal was dampened on Friday after Italy was forced to accept a yield over 6% in an auction of 10-year debt, driving home the tenuous state of the Italian economy. Corporate earnings among industrial and energy names were relatively strong, while the initial +2.5% reading US Q3 GDP data helped dampen fears of an imminent return to recession in the United States. The HSBC flash PMI report for China also calmed some nerves about a Chinese hard landing. In the negative column, the US October Consumer Confidence index was much weaker than expected, putting the index back at levels seen during the 2008-09 recession. Commodity prices surged along with equities: WTI crude remained firmly above the $90 handle, while spot gold gained approx $100 to trade just shy of $1,750. Copper prices moved up to the highest level in more than a month testing $3.75. For the week the DJIA gained 3.6%, the Nasdaq rose 3.8% and the S&P500 increased 3.7%, putting it positive territory for the year.
- The world's largest oil companies reported robust profits, capitalizing on higher prices and improved refining margins in the third quarter. Shell doubled its profits y/y, Chevron nearly doubled its earnings, Exxon's profit was up 41% y/y. Gains at ConocoPhillips, Total and BP were not quite as huge, but still impressive. Nevertheless, there was very little evidence that any of the supermajors are managing to grow production levels, limiting share gains this week.
- Despite the economic deceleration seen over the summer, manufacturing names performed extremely well during the third quarter. Caterpillar ground consensus estimates into dust, on profits that were up 44% y/y. Ford beat Q3 expectations, although profits slipped a bit on a y/y basis thanks to higher commodity costs. Boeing, General Dynamics, Northrop Gumman and Lockheed Martin beat, although executives cautioned that cuts to the FY12 US defense budget could be a big headwind next year. There were signs of trouble, however. Goodyear's results were strong, but it warned that tire sales volumes in North America declined 8% y/y. Whirlpool's results were not strong at all, and the firm announced that it would cut 10% of its workforce. Continuing trouble among tech-sector clients hurt 3M, which also cut its full-year outlook.
- Tech icons Netflix and Amazon saw big slides in their share values this week. Shares of Netflix were down as much as 36% after the company admitted that 800K customers had fled the service in the quarter following its failed attempt to split its streaming and DVD business. Shares of Amazon fell by double digits after margins collapsed and it missed top- and bottom-line, due in large part to the launch of the Fire tablet. Sprint's quarterly loss was a bit smaller than expected, and the firm outlined its strategy for betting the farm on the iPhone 4S. Radioshack got slammed after the firm's profits tanked on a big decline in margins and awful sales comps. In other news, Hewlett-Packard announced that it had decided not to spin off its PC unit.
- Visa's profit and revenue growth rates slowed on a sequential basis although payment volumes and total transactions showed healthy growth. Leading health insurance names reported quarterly results that were widely boosted by lower utilization rates, thanks to the weak economy and high unemployment. Metlife modestly exceeded expectations in its Q3 report, thanks in part to double-digit growth in international premiums and a big gain in investment income.
- Consumer staples names Colgate and Procter & Gamble met expectations in quarterly reports, although guidance was lackluster. Colgate said FY11 margins would fall further than expected due to "significantly higher" costs, while Procter's Q2 guidance was very soft. At UPS, volumes and revenues showed little growth, and the only bright spot in the firm's outlook was Asia.
- Trading in fixed income markets remained highly dependent on traders' overall affinity towards risk this week. The positive momentum that built up heading into the eurozone's master-plan announcement sent Treasury yields to their highest levels since early August. Corporate bond markets awakened with notable deals by some of the largest European financial companies, and even demand for high yield debt picked up. By Friday though, the Euro euphoria gave way, highlighted by another surge wider in sovereign debt spreads. The Italian 10-year yield reached 6% while Spain's 10-year rate climbed 18 basis points to 5.47%. Bund and Treasury prices bounced getting back a modest portion of the post summit losses. For the week the US 10-year yield backed up about 10 basis to points to finish above 3.3%.
- The euro traded in a tight range against other major currencies ahead of the successful leaders' summit on Thursday morning, with EUR/USD pivoting around 1.3900. Stabs downward followed on rumors that the summit would be cancelled or put off - the pair tested the 1.3850 level on confusion over the timing of various meetings on Wednesday - and continued ECB purchases of peripheral European sovereign debt helped hold up the single currency. Note that data out on Monday indicated that the ECB had boosted the amount it settled in the bond buying program last week to €4.5B from the prior week's €2.2B. Early on dealers were saying that the market was still maintaining net euro short positions, although they were mostly flushed out as the week progressed on optimism about possibilities for a successful summit outcome, and in the end the shorts were crushed. After the deal was announced, EUR/USD tested its former one-year uptrend line that was broken back in early September at the 1.4200 level. Note that 1.3970 is critical hourly support to maintain the recent upward momentum. USD/CHF tested five-week lows below the 0.88 level. The Swiss Franc did not react to comments from SNB Chief Hildebrand, who reiterated that the SNB will defend its floor with full determination.
- USD/JPY hit consecutive all-time lows several times this the week. Verbal intervention by numerous officials warned about the yen and even increases to Japan's asset purchases failed to weaken the JPY. Tough talk between the US and China on trade issues is punishing the yen: the US Treasury this week warned that China's access to US markets depended on fixing discriminatory trade practices. BoJ intervention risk has increased as this sort of rhetoric has heated up of late. Japan Finance Minister Azumi stated that Japan sees USD/JPY between ¥76-77 as inappropriate.
Week of 10/31/2011 thru 11/4/2011
Monday, October 31, 2011
Economic
08:30 Canada Aug GDP
09:45 US Oct Chicago Purchasing Manager
10:00 US Oct NAPM Milwaukee
10:30 US Oct Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity
11:30 US Treasury's 3- and 6-month bill auction
Tuesday, November 01, 2011
Economic
10:00 US Oct ISM Manufacturing, Sept Construction Spending
11:30 US Treasury's 4-week bill auction
16:30 API Crude Oil/Gasoline/Distillate Inventories
Wednesday, November 02, 2011
Economic
07:30 US Oct Challenger Job Cuts
08:15 US Oct ADP Employment Change
10:30 DoE Crude Oil/Gasoline/Distillate Inventories
12:30 Fed rate decision
14:15 Fed Chairman Bernanke press conference
Thursday, November 03, 2011
Economic
08:30 US Q3 prelim Non-Farm Productivity, Q3 prelim Unit Labor Costs, Initial Jobless Claims, Continuing Claims
10:00 US Oct ISM Non-Manufacturing, Sept Factory Orders
10:30 DoE Natural Gas Inventories
Friday, November 04, 2011
Economic
07:00 Canada Oct Unemployment Rate
08:30 US Oct Non-Farm Payrolls, Manufacturing Payrolls, Private Payrolls, Unemployment Rate, Canada Sept Building Permits
10:00 Canada Oct Ivey PMI
Please read our disclaimer:
Trading has large potential rewards, but also large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the markets. The videos are neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures or options. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Rule 4.41 - Hypothetical or simulated performance results have certain limitations. Unlike an actual performance record, simulated results do not represent actual trading. Also, since the trades have not been executed, the results may have under-or-over compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profit or losses similar to those shown. Learn to trade futures forex stocks.
08:30 US Q3 Employment Cost Index, Sept Personal Income, Personal Spending, PCE Deflator, PCE Core
09:55 US Oct final University of Michigan Confidence
Todays Headlines
8:30:03 AM
*(US) INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS: 402K V 401KE; CONTINUING CLAIMS: 3.645M V 3.70ME
- Prior Initial Claims revised higher from 403K to 404K
- Prior Continuing Claims higher from 3.719M to 3.741M
10:02:25 AM
(GR) Greece Fin Min Venizelos: Greece govt debt is now absolutely sustainable
- Affirms Greece to receive sixth aid tranche by mid November.
- Greek 2020 debt ratio without the new haircut deal would have been 173% (vs. expectation of 120% with the haircut at 50%).
- Greece banks will be required to hold 10% capital ratios as opposed to the 9% for other European banks
- Notes Greece may seek preference shares for banks that need state aid;
11:57:12 AM
(US) House Speaker Boehner: Tax reform measures should be handled at later date, was never intended for the 'super commitee' to handle
- Says Democratic proposal is not reasonable; most of deficit reduction should come from spending cuts
- Follow up 12:15ET: Republicans propose $2.2T in deficit reduction over 10 year period
Please read our disclaimer:
Trading has large potential rewards, but also large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the markets. The videos are neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures or options. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Rule 4.41 - Hypothetical or simulated performance results have certain limitations. Unlike an actual performance record, simulated results do not represent actual trading. Also, since the trades have not been executed, the results may have under-or-over compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profit or losses similar to those shown. Learn to trade futures forex stocks.
08:30 US Q3 advance GDP, Initial Jobless Claims, Continuing Claims
10:00 US Sept Pending Home Sales
10:30 DoE Natural Gas Inventories
11:00 US Oct Kansas City Fed Manufacturing, Treasury's TIPS announcement
13:00 US Treasury's 7-year note auction
Todays Headlines
8:30:03 AM
*(CA) CANADA AUG RETAIL SALES M/M: 0.5% V 0.3%E; RETAIL SALES LESS AUTOS M/M: 0.4% V 0.3%E
- Prior Retail Sales MoM revised higher from -0.6% to -0.5%
- Prior Retail Sales Less Autos MoM revised higher from 0.0% to 0.1%
9:10:31 AM
(GE) German Bundestag (Lower House) approves measures on EFSF leveraging (as expected)
- As expected, the parameters of the German approval include provisions that demand the ECB no longer purchase bonds on the secondary market once the EFSF is in place, and that the EFSF will not be financed through the ECB.
8:30:03 AM
*(US) SEPT DURABLE GOODS ORDERS: -0.8% V -1.0%E; DURABLES EX TRANSPORTATION: 1.7% V 0.4%E
- Durable Goods Orders, Ex-Defense: -1.1% v -0.3% prior (revised from -0.1%)
- Capital Goods Orders Non-defense Ex-aircraft: 2.4% v +0.5%e
- Capital Goods Shipments Non-defense Ex-aircraft: -0.9% v +3.1% prior
10:59:31 AM
(EU) ECB's Mersch: Will not make comments on ECB purchases of post EFSF bonds; Governing council will make the decisions
- Notes that the vacuum on institutional fiscal policy should be filled
- Euro area needs an organization to monitor policies of the nations
- Highlights the EMU finances are in better shape than the US
Please read our disclaimer:
Trading has large potential rewards, but also large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the markets. The videos are neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures or options. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Rule 4.41 - Hypothetical or simulated performance results have certain limitations. Unlike an actual performance record, simulated results do not represent actual trading. Also, since the trades have not been executed, the results may have under-or-over compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profit or losses similar to those shown. Learn to trade futures forex stocks.
08:30 Canada Aug Retail Sales
09:00 BoC rate decision, US Aug S&P/CS Home Price Index, Aug S&P/CS Composite-20
10:00 US Oct Consumer Confidence, Oct Richmond Fed Manufacturing, Aug House Price Index
11:30 US Treasury's 4-week bill auction
13:00 US Treasury's 2-year note auction
16:30 API Crude Oil/Gasoline/Distillate Inventories
Todays Headlines
5:05:38 AM
(GE) German Public Banks Association (VOEB) President Brand: Expresses confidence that Europe will solve the debt crisis
- German banks need less capital than number publically named, hears German banks need about €5.5B (not sure if Landesbanks are part of that figure)
- Silent participations should count towards core capital at least until June.
6:09:24 AM
(EU) EU Juncker: Greek private sector involvment (PSI) discussions are considering a haircut of 50-60% (v the July agreement of 21%)
- Banks must have quite substantial role in Greek package.
- Rules out forcing banks to accept Greek debt losses (haircuts must be voluntary).
7:00:34 AM
(EU) ECB's Mersch: A sovereign default should be avoided, although restructuring debt as a last resort cannot be excluded
- Must avoid any restructuring that is not purely voluntary.
- Default carries elevated risk of contagion, default would harm credibility of EMU and set up a negative feedback loop into the economy.
7:31:59 AM
(IN) India Central Bank: Growth in 2011-12 likely to drop below trend, remain weak in second half of 2012
- The challenge is to bring inflation down to an acceptable levle on a sustainable basis.
- Inflation pressures are strong thanks to structural rigidities, may drop later in 2012. Weak INR is addding to inflation.
9:23:55 AM
(US) Fed's Dudley: Fed still retains many measures it could undertake and remains a lender of last resort - Q&A
- Affirms possibility that the Fed could expand its purchases of mortgage backed securities (MBS)
- Fed is on target in regards to inflation.
11:04:52 AM
(US) Fed's Fisher: Have successfully warded off deflation; MBS purchases effect uncertain; there was a temporary rise in inflation
- Notes Fed has done enough on employment and the fiscal authorities must act.
- calls for certainty for businesses and consumers on on fiscal and tax issues.
Please read our disclaimer:
Trading has large potential rewards, but also large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the markets. The videos are neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures or options. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Rule 4.41 - Hypothetical or simulated performance results have certain limitations. Unlike an actual performance record, simulated results do not represent actual trading. Also, since the trades have not been executed, the results may have under-or-over compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profit or losses similar to those shown. Learn to trade futures forex stocks.
“It has been said that man is a rational animal. All my life I have been searching for evidence which could support this.”
Market Week Wrap-Up
- European and US equity indices snapped back sharply this week from weakness early on as European officials began hashing out concrete plans to backstop their banking system ahead of a potential Greece meltdown. Risk aversion drove trading coming into the week as leaked Greek budget figures indicated the country may miss 2011 and 2012 targets, forcing the EU to delay the payout of aid to Greece and postpone a key summit meeting. Adding to the dread, there was news that officials were discussing how to save French/Belgian bank Dexia, which was rapidly deteriorating after its big write down of Greek debt back in August. Both events seem to have overcome lingering skepticism in various European capitals - especially Berlin - that coping with Greece will require bank recapitalization. By mid week German Finance Minister Schaeuble was talking about reactivating the SoFFin stabilization fund, used to stabilize German banks in 2008, and the European Commission's Barroso indicated the EFSF could be used for backing the banks. France and Germany were disagreeing over the fine details, but were essentially on board with the plan (details are to be hashed out at the Oct 17th special EU summit, and Merkel and Sarkozy will have a conclave this weekend). The bank rescue talk reignited risk appetite and drove money out of USTs, Bunds and the dollar. Gold had dipped back below $1,600 and the dollar was at nine-month highs against the euro before sentiment reversed on Tuesday. On Thursday the BoE and ECB held rates steady, although the focus has been on various special measures launched by both institutions to hold down rates and boost liquidity. The US September non-farm payrolls report beat expectations with a +103K headline number and a +137K private payrolls figure, however the re-addition of 45K striking Verizon workers skewed these figures higher. The specter of recession was raised again in Europe by lower-than-expected final UK Q2 GDP data and the German September PMI falling below 50 for the first time since July 2009. A better than expected China manufacturing PMI reading, released over the weekend, eased some worries about an economic hard landing in the global growth engine. For the week the DJIA gained 1.7%, the S&P500 added 2.1% and the Nasdaq rose 2.7%.
- Volumes in US equity markets remained low this week as major indices reacted to a mixed batch of corporate earnings and a ceaseless stream of headlines about how the Europeans plan to structure their big financial backstop. France and Germany have struggled behind the scenes over the most appropriate way of levering up the pot of authorized funding for the EFSF, how to restructure Greece's debt, how to recapitalize the banks, and how to firewall Europe, and especially Italy, against the crisis. Few concrete final details have emerged, although it appears that despite the terrible state of Greece's austerity plans, there is no question that Athens will get its next tranche of aid in November. The big US banks reported dismal earnings for the third quarter, and Goldman Sachs actually took a loss. There were other high-profile misses, including Apple, but overall the tone out of corporate America has been relatively positive. On the data front, China's Q3 GDP data declined on a sequential basis for the third consecutive quarter, registering its lowest reading in two years, although the very gradual declines suggest that the Chinese government is so far managing an economic soft landing. In Europe, the German October ZEW index of economic sentiment fell for the eighth consecutive month. However some improved data in the US provided reasons to doubt the inevitability of a return to recession. The October Philly Fed survey registered its first positive reading since May, with a return to positive new orders as well. Data on the US housing market were also surprisingly positive. The October NAHB Housing Market Index hit its highest level since May 2010, thanks to modest improvements in buyer interest in select markets. More importantly, September housing starts increased at their highest annualized rate in eighteen months thanks to a 51.3% y/y increase in construction of multi-family units. For the week the DJIA gained 1.3%, while the S&P500 and Nasdaq each rose 1.1%. Chartists noted that on Friday that the S&P 500 had its best close in over two months, just 20 points shy of break even for the year.
- On Tuesday Goldman Sachs reported its second quarterly loss since going public back in the 1990s, citing troubles in its investment portfolio and declines in trading revenue. Investment banking revenues were down sharply on both a q/q and y/y basis, and there was a big net negative revenue figure in its investing and lending segment. Like JPMorgan last week, debit valuation adjustments (DVA) were a major factor in earnings out of Citigroup, Morgan Stanley, and Bank of America this week. Morgan Stanley reported headline earnings of $1.15/share, but after backing out the DVA gain, it only earned $0.02/share. With its shares down 50% YTD due to fears about the bank's exposure to peripheral European debt, Morgan Stanley reiterated that its net funded exposure was approximately $2B, or $5.7B before hedges. Bank of America's headline profit amounted to $0.56/share, but big asset sales and a DVA helped it cover up some fairly substantial losses, including a $2.2B pretax loss on private-equity assets and around $1.9B in charges related to mortgage litigation, disposing of the international cards business and other items. Net interest income fell to $10.7B from $12.7B a year earlier. Citigroup's earnings were only slightly higher than expected, after subtracting a $0.39 gain from the bank's debt value adjustment. Top-line revenue was in line, although the investment banking business saw revenue decline 12% y/y, hurt by declining underwriting and merger advisory fees.
- In other earnings, DJIA components AT&T, Coca Cola, GE, IBM, Johnson & Johnson, McDonalds, and Verizon all reported quarterly results that met or slightly exceeded expectations. GE saw solid double-digit profit growth, although investors were concerned that margins fell on a y/y basis, driven by a calm patch in the wind business. Coca Cola saw decent growth in volumes, although it warned that cost of goods sold was up 67% in the quarter, thanks to higher commodity costs. Shares of American Express fell despite the firm's good profit growth and excellent credit metrics, as expenses grew faster than revenue. J&J's decline in domestic sales was more than made up for by double-digit y/y growth overseas. AT&T did not impress investors with its soft postpaid subscriber additions and iPhone activations. Apple's shocking miss weighed down the tech-heavy NASDAQ index on Wednesday, with the miss attributed to potential new customers holding off on buying an iPhone in anticipation of the new model launch in October. Note that Apple's own forecast for Q1 lacked its typical conservatism, as executives reiterated their high hopes for the iPhone 4S. Microsoft reported decent results, although analysts were concerned that its Windows 7 franchise made very minor gains after three quarters of declining sales, in line with limp PC sales.
- Trading in US bond markets was fairly subdued this week as much of the focus remained on Europe. Early on hopes remained high and government borrowing costs in Europe continued to come down. Signs that European corporate bond markets were beginning to thaw further aided sentiment. But European sovereign spreads widened out as the week wore on and it became clear there would not be an overriding solution agreed upon by this weekend. The Italian 10-year touched 6% again and even French 10-year debt saw its yield blow out relative to the Bund. On Friday traders pushed money back towards riskier assets which sent Bund and Treasury yields higher. The US 10-year yield finished the week at 2.2% while the Bund closed at 2.10%.
- Finding themselves still far apart on a master plan for solving the euro zone crisis, European officials began the week with attempts to temper expectations for the summit scheduled for October 23rd, warning that hopes they would deliver a final solution to the crisis were overblown. By midweek the intensive talks between Germany and France over the best use the expanded EFSF were still at an impasse. To give themselves more breathing room, officials scheduled a second summit meeting for Wednesday, October 26th and said the Sunday summit would be used for further talks. Conflict over the best route to leverage the backstop breaks down as follows: France would like the EFSF to be given a banking license while Germany would like it to become an insurer that would back government bonds. There are problems with each approach, especially given that the ECB strenuously apposes giving the fund a banking license. In addition to the EFSF, conflict rages over how great a haircut private holders of Greek debt should ultimately take, with some saying participation in taking haircuts should be made mandatory (current proposals call for them to be voluntary). But ultimately, it's worth keeping in mind that the battle over the EFSF comes down to one fundamental question: is there enough money in Europe to prevent a run on the €1.9T Italian bond market?
- The threat of contagion was renewed by a Moody's report warning it might put France's ratings on negative watch in the next three months if the cost of bailing out banks or other euro zone members adversely impacts its budget. The spread between 10-year French and German government debt hit an all-time euro-era high of 120 bps this week, reflecting nervousness about France's ratings. This in turn pushed out spreads on EFSF debt, further exacerbating the situation and driving France to negotiate harder for an EFSF structure that is suited to protecting its ratings. EUR/USD has peaked above the 1.3900 level coming into the week, however the pair bounced around between this level and 1.3650 on conflicting headlines about the state of the European negotiations. By the end of the week the greenback was under pressure again on an uptick in overall risk appetite.
- USD/JPY remained basically locked within its 200 pip range for the 55th consecutive session but dealers noted the current environment was ripe for a stop hunt as they eye some massive dollar sell stops building below the 76 and 75 levels. The pair hit fresh life-time lows below the 75.95 level after markets were disappointed by Japan's formal plan to spend ¥2T on steps to ease the impact of the strong yen. With USD/JPY at its lower end of the recent range, the price action could bring the BoJ back into focus, and nerves will be on edge as intervention becomes more of a possibility.
- China released the balance of its monthly economic data that was largely in the same vein as its somewhat disappointing GDP figures. Q3 growth slowed to a 2-year low 9.1%, below 9.3% forecasted, while industrial production rose 13.8% y/y to break a string of two consecutive monthly declines. Debate over a "hard" versus "soft" landing scenarios in China attracted renewed focus in the commodity markets this week, as copper fell sharply mid-week before a modest recovery on Friday. A number of press outlets also saw a heightened concern over a brewing Chinese credit bubble, and a couple of analysts also noted an inflation discrepancy as measured by monthly CPI and quarterly deflator GDP figures indicating a lower probability of PBoC easing.
- In Australia, the RBA released its policy meeting minutes reiterating that inflation pressures appear to be more subdued over the medium term, deferring to the next set of quarterly inflation metrics for setting policy bias. Australia PPI and CPI will be announced on Sunday and Tuesday evening respectively, with estimates suggesting an easing in early November would be justified. New Zealand, on tap for a central bank rate decision on Wednesday, is widely expected to leave rates unchanged for the fifth time, even though RBNZ governor Bollard reiterated this week that it is not appropriate to keep easy monetary policy at a time of earthquake rebuild.
Week of 10/24/2011 thru 10/28/2011
Monday, October 24, 2011
Economic
08:30 US Sept Chicago Fed NAI
11:30 US Treasury's 3- and 6-month bill auction
Tuesday, October 25, 2011
Economic
08:30 Canada Aug Retail Sales
09:00 BoC rate decision, US Aug S&P/CS Home Price Index, Aug S&P/CS Composite-20
10:00 US Oct Consumer Confidence, Oct Richmond Fed Manufacturing, Aug House Price Index
11:30 US Treasury's 4-week bill auction
13:00 US Treasury's 2-year note auction
16:30 API Crude Oil/Gasoline/Distillate Inventories
Wednesday, October 26, 2011
Economic
08:30 US Sept Durable Goods
10:00 US Sept New Home Sales
10:30 Canada Monetary Policy Report, DoE Crude Oil/Gasoline/Distillate Inventories
13:00 US Treasury's 5-year note auction
Thursday, October 27, 2011
Economic
08:30 US Q3 advance GDP, Initial Jobless Claims, Continuing Claims
10:00 US Sept Pending Home Sales
10:30 DoE Natural Gas Inventories
11:00 US Oct Kansas City Fed Manufacturing, Treasury's TIPS announcement
13:00 US Treasury's 7-year note auction
Friday, October 28, 2011
Economic
08:30 US Q3 Employment Cost Index, Sept Personal Income, Personal Spending, PCE Deflator, PCE Core
09:55 US Oct final University of Michigan Confidence
Please read our disclaimer:
Trading has large potential rewards, but also large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the markets. The videos are neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures or options. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Rule 4.41 - Hypothetical or simulated performance results have certain limitations. Unlike an actual performance record, simulated results do not represent actual trading. Also, since the trades have not been executed, the results may have under-or-over compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profit or losses similar to those shown. Learn to trade futures forex stocks.
*(US) INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS: 403K V 400KE; CONTINUING CLAIMS: 3.719M V 3.69ME
- Prior Initial Claims revised higher from 404K to 409K
- Prior Continuing Claims higher from 3.67M to 3.69M
9:00:52 AM
(IR) Official Ireland Troika Report: Ireland is on track on meeting its bailout targets; sees both 2011 and 2012 GDP +1.0%
- Ireland is committed to achiving a 2012 govt deficit of 8.6% of GDP.
- H1 economic growth stronger than expected
9:05:29 AM
(EU) German govt said to consider delaying the Oct 23 EU summit if necessary to give more time to negotiate on euro zone rescue plan - German press
- Yesterday reports said intensive talks were still ongoing, particularly between the French and German leaders with some sticking points still impeding a deal. French Pres Sarkozy flew to Frankfort yesterday afternoon for an unscheduled meeting with Merkel and other senior EU officials.
9:30:09 AM
(EU) Senior EU sources are said to be "unaware" of any plans to postpone Sept 23rd EU summit - financial press
- Separately, the Austria Finance Ministy is said to have asserted that the Sept 23rd summit is fixed, unaware of any postponement.
10:31:06 AM
(GR) IMF Spokesperson: There are no divergences between IMF, the EU and the ECB over the sustainability of Greece's debt
- Decision on next tranche of Greek aid is on track for early November.
- Negotiations between Greece and private sector investors are ongoing.
Please read our disclaimer:
Trading has large potential rewards, but also large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the markets. The videos are neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures or options. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Rule 4.41 - Hypothetical or simulated performance results have certain limitations. Unlike an actual performance record, simulated results do not represent actual trading. Also, since the trades have not been executed, the results may have under-or-over compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profit or losses similar to those shown. Learn to trade futures forex stocks.
08:30 US Sept CPI, Sept Housing Starts, Sept Building Permits, Canada Sept Leading Indicators
10:30 DoE Crude Oil/Gasoline/Distillate Inventories
14:00 Fed Beige Book
Todays Headlines
9:00:06 AM
*(US) AUG NET LONG-TERM TIC FLOWS: +$57.9 V -$20.0BE; TOTAL NET TIC FLOWS: $89.6B V -$52.4B PRIOR
- Prior Net Long Term TIC Flows revised lower from $9.5B to $9.1B
- Prior Total Net TIC Flows revised lower from -$51.8B to -$52.4B
9:31:27 AM
CFTC begins meeting to evaluate plans to implement position limits; limits to apply to spot month and non spot month on 4 energy contracts and 5 metal contracts
- Notes position limits are aimed to curbing excessive speculation while maintaining market liquidity
- Considering a 1 year delay on swaps rules
9:50:09 AM
(GR) Germany coalition said to be considering a permanent Troika program for Greece if the current Troika has concerns about debt levels - financial press
- Reiterates that leverage of the EFSF through the ECB has been effectively ruled out
- Countries found to have borken deficit rules may be then subject to European court proceedings
10:47:51 AM
(NZ) Fonterra Global Dairy Trade auction: Dairy Trade price index +1.7% from prior auction on Oct 4th (-1.6% prior)
- Average winning auction price: $3,540/metric tonv $3,449/metric ton prior (lowest since $3,080 in Aug 2010)
- Whole milk powder: +5.7% v -0.7% prior
11:16:50 AM
NY Fed: Purchased $2.5B in outright coupon purchase; dealers submitted $6.32B for consideration (bid to cover 2.53)
- Heaviest purchase was $567M in the 02/15/40 maturity
Please read our disclaimer:
Trading has large potential rewards, but also large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the markets. The videos are neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures or options. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Rule 4.41 - Hypothetical or simulated performance results have certain limitations. Unlike an actual performance record, simulated results do not represent actual trading. Also, since the trades have not been executed, the results may have under-or-over compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profit or losses similar to those shown. Learn to trade futures forex stocks.
08:30 US Oct Empire Manufacturing
09:15 US Sept Industrial Production, Sept Capacity Utilization
10:30 Canada Q3 Business Outlook, BoC Senior Loan Officer Survey
11:30 US Treasury's 3- and 6-month bill auction
Todays Headlines
5:33:23 AM
(GE) Germany Gov't Spokesman Siebert: "Dreams" that everything in the EU crisis will be solved next Monday "cannot be met"; search for solution to debt crisis to last into 2012
- Merkel expected to make EU policy speech in parliament on Friday, Oct 21st
- No meeting planned between Merkel and top bankers before Oct 23rd EU summit.
5:23:55 AM
(GE) German Fin Min Schaeuble: Upcoming EU summit will not reveal final solution to the debt crisis
**Note: Schaeuble is referring to the Oct 23rd EU summit, which is expected to cover bank recapitalizations. The G20 has asked the EMU to develop an overarching plan to deal with the debt crisis by the Nov 3-4 G20 meeting in Cannes.
9:15:02 AM
*(US) SEPT INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION: 0.2% V 0.2%E; CAPACITY UTILIZATION: 77.4% V 77.5%E
- Prior Industrial Production revised lower from 0.2% to 0.0%
- Prior Capacity Utilization revised lower from 77.4% to 77.3%
9:34:39 AM
(EU) Germany Fin Min Schaeuble: A new balance between markets and the state is needed; short-sightedness is preventing the adoption of a financial transaction tax (Tobin Tax)
- Rating agency models need to be more transparent.
- Must eliminate irrational exuberance and irrational gloom from markets.
- Need to support sustainable growth not based on highly leveraged markets.
11:33:24 AM
(EU) ECB's Stark: Strongly supports semi-automatic, binding fiscal rules for euro zone member states
- Govt package gives scope for discretion on surveillance.
- Reiterates that many countries have not met conditions set forth by the monetary union; there is a need for a real economic union in Europe
Please read our disclaimer:
Trading has large potential rewards, but also large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the markets. The videos are neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures or options. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Rule 4.41 - Hypothetical or simulated performance results have certain limitations. Unlike an actual performance record, simulated results do not represent actual trading. Also, since the trades have not been executed, the results may have under-or-over compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profit or losses similar to those shown. Learn to trade futures forex stocks.
“People might not get all they work for in this world, but they must certainly work for all they get.”
Market Week Wrap-Up
- European and US equity indices snapped back sharply this week from weakness early on as European officials began hashing out concrete plans to backstop their banking system ahead of a potential Greece meltdown. Risk aversion drove trading coming into the week as leaked Greek budget figures indicated the country may miss 2011 and 2012 targets, forcing the EU to delay the payout of aid to Greece and postpone a key summit meeting. Adding to the dread, there was news that officials were discussing how to save French/Belgian bank Dexia, which was rapidly deteriorating after its big write down of Greek debt back in August. Both events seem to have overcome lingering skepticism in various European capitals - especially Berlin - that coping with Greece will require bank recapitalization. By mid week German Finance Minister Schaeuble was talking about reactivating the SoFFin stabilization fund, used to stabilize German banks in 2008, and the European Commission's Barroso indicated the EFSF could be used for backing the banks. France and Germany were disagreeing over the fine details, but were essentially on board with the plan (details are to be hashed out at the Oct 17th special EU summit, and Merkel and Sarkozy will have a conclave this weekend). The bank rescue talk reignited risk appetite and drove money out of USTs, Bunds and the dollar. Gold had dipped back below $1,600 and the dollar was at nine-month highs against the euro before sentiment reversed on Tuesday. On Thursday the BoE and ECB held rates steady, although the focus has been on various special measures launched by both institutions to hold down rates and boost liquidity. The US September non-farm payrolls report beat expectations with a +103K headline number and a +137K private payrolls figure, however the re-addition of 45K striking Verizon workers skewed these figures higher. The specter of recession was raised again in Europe by lower-than-expected final UK Q2 GDP data and the German September PMI falling below 50 for the first time since July 2009. A better than expected China manufacturing PMI reading, released over the weekend, eased some worries about an economic hard landing in the global growth engine. For the week the DJIA gained 1.7%, the S&P500 added 2.1% and the Nasdaq rose 2.7%.
- The rose colored glasses stayed on this week as Europe's efforts to contain the crisis and a handful of not terrible economic reports kept equity markets afloat. Volume remained notably light all week despite the kick-off of the fall earnings season, featuring an excellent quarter for Google and disappointing results from JPMorgan and Alcoa. In Europe, officials dribbled out more details of how they intend to contain the spiraling debt crisis. On Wednesday, the EU Commission rolled out initial bank recapitalization proposals, settling on saying capital ratios should be raised temporarily, and not settling on a specific figure though chatter suggested they will demand 9% capital ratios at banks. Meanwhile France and Germany continued to refine a range of proposals for utilizing the newly approved EFSF expansion and discuss how much of a haircut on Greek debt holdings their banks could withstand. All will be revealed at a special EU summit next weekend, and investors will be looking forward to the Troika report on Greece's reform efforts due in the middle of next week. On the data front, overall euro zone industrial production expanded at a decent rate in August, contrary to expectations. Trade data out of both the US and China was somewhat concerning: China Sept trade balance hit a four-month low, including a seven-month low in overall exports, while the US August trade report indicated the trade deficit declined in August, versus expectations in a slight increase. US Sept retail sales were not bad. In Asia, September CPI data was slightly softer than expected in both South Korea and China. US Treasury yields moved up this week as traders appeared more willing to add to risk positions. Treasury supply was also a factor, in particular a disappointing 10-year note reopening weighed on prices midweek. The US 10-year yield touched 2.25% for the first time since August. Equity indices saw their first two-week stretch of gains since the summer and closed at one month highs; for the week the DJIA gained 4.9%, the S&P500 surged 6%, and the Nasdaq rocketed 7.6%.
- Poor earnings out of JPMorgan limited the upside among the major US investment banks this week. The firm's headline earnings came in at $1.02, beating estimates, although the bank admitted itself that this figure was sweetened by a $1.9B debt valuation adjustment. Excluding this gain, JP Morgan's earnings dropped around 25% on a y/y basis. Revenue at JPMorgan's investment banking unit was down substantially on a y/y basis. On the conference call, executives said Q4 performance at the investment banking arm would be similar to Q3 results. The bank's private equity unit also racked up a $500M loss. Banks may also have been weighed on by the Federal Reserve and the FDIC releasing draft proposals for implementing the ban on proprietary trading by banks (the so-called Volcker rule) for public comment.
- Google comfortably beat expectations in its Q3 report on Thursday, based on strong growth in paid clicks and nearly 40% y/y growth in ad revenue. Executives also highlighted robust demand from emerging markets and strength in mobile and display advertising. Google also disclosed that it is planning to launch an MP3 music retailing store.
- PepsiCo met expectations in its Q3 report and reaffirmed its FY11 outlook. Executives warned that it was too early to offer an FY12 forecast, and also threw cold water on calls to separate the firm's snack and beverage businesses. The CEO emphasized that PepsiCo's success was tied to drinks and snacks units remaining integrated.
- Alcoa widely missed profit expectations in its Q3 results, citing the global economic slowdown for impacting demand and significantly eroding margins. Profit still showed y/y growth, but was lower than the firm's Q2 earnings. Executives still see Asia demand compensating for developed market weakness in 2011.
- Shares of Netflix see-sawed on news that the company has dialed back plans to split the DVD and streaming video businesses, following howls of protest from both users and tech analysts. Hulu's owners discontinued plans to sell the video platform following months of negotiations with potential bidders. Apple officially launched the iPhone 4S on Friday; earlier in the week announcing it had racked up one million pre-orders for the new model in the first 24 hours, leading some analysts to predict Apple could sell as many as 25M iPhones in Q4 (v 20M q/q).
- In deal news, Superior Energy Services agreed to buy smaller rival Complete Production in a cash-and-stock deal for about $2.6 billion, as the oil-field services company looks to expand its hydraulic fracking business. Discount chain 99 Cents Only agreed to be acquired by private equity firm Ares Capital for $22/share in cash, for a total deal worth $1.6B. And Dollar Thrifty said that it had completed its review of strategic alternatives without identifying any acceptable offers and plans to remain an independent company.
- The euro gained traction early on this week as participants were looking forward to positive developments in the euro zone crisis. France and Germany pledged last weekend to present a new plan for coping with the crisis that would include bank recapitalizations, a move which would likely underpin a Greek debt restructuring and larger private investor participation. The rhetoric boosted euro and other riskier currencies while softening the greenback. However on Tuesday, the Slovakian parliament's initial inability to pass legislation authorizing the enhanced EFSF dampened risk appetite, sending EUR/USD below the 1.36 level. After settling its internal political issues, Slovakia ratified the EFSF mid-week in a second vote, avoiding the necessity for an embarrassing work around by the other 16 EMU members who had already approved the EFSF expansion. European officials released their most detailed proposals yet for containing the crisis through the back half of the week, propelling EUR/USD above 1.3850 by the close of trade on Friday.
- The euro seems to be stuck between two different policy approaches: on the one hand there is the ECB, which is adamant against greater investor participation - the bank and outgoing chief Trichet made alarming comments to the effect that the crisis had reached systemic dimensions and forcing banks to pay more for Greece would hurt an already vulnerable financial sector. On the other hand, politicians, chiefly German officials, are advocating more private sector involvement that would mean higher haircuts. Negotiations on the details of how the EFSF and associated measures would be instituted continued all week in conference rooms and through media leaks. On Friday, as the G20 finance ministers met in Paris, there were reports the private haircuts on Greek debt could be anywhere from 30% to as much as 50%, though bankers were said to still be fighting for the original 21% haircut established in the July 21st accord. EU Commission Chief Barroso laid out a five-year recapitalization plan for European banks which left vague the provisions for 'perfect pure capital' and capital ratios. The euro's resilience was remarkable given that the banking sector continues to be very fragile, especially after Fitch downgraded UK banks and UBS while putting many others' ratings on credit watch negative, and S&P revised France's Banking Industry Country Risk Assessment (BICRA) rating to Group 2 from Group 1. Even S&P's downgrade of Spain on Thursday afternoon did not keep the overall risk-on atmosphere from helping the euro sustain its gains on Friday as Europe began loading the bazooka at the G20 meeting. Now traders are looking forward to the October 23 special EU summit, when the EU will officially reckon with the Troika report on Greece, which could be a reality check for the current euphoria with bearish implications for EUR/USD.
- Cable has traded steadily throughout the week since the restart of the QE2 in Britain. However, the cross seems to be helped more by the euro rally than UK fundamentals which continue to be weak. Fitch downgraded the UK banks but that did little to change the sterling's trajectory as Fitch cited the same reason as Moody's - the downgrade was not because of banks' fundamentals but because the government unwillingness to support the banks if it is needed. A welcome improvement was the narrowing of the country's trade balance which may help Q3 GDP. In other news, the EUR/CHF continued to hover in the upper 1.23 neighborhood on continuing speculation that the SNB could increase its floor in the cross from the 1.2000 level.
- After pivoting around 76.60 for most of last week, USD/JPY climbed above 77 to test 77.40 on Wednesday on widespread chatter that the BoJ would introduce a ceiling for the yen. The cross trailed back below 77 as no announcement was forthcoming, but a statement in the Japanese press by a government official on Friday morning sent USD/JPY right back to the 77.40 level. The official stated that the government would likely introduce measures to combat the strong yen as soon as next week in time to be included for the third extra budget.
- China returned to the spotlight after a week-long holiday with key developments in FX reform, trade, and inflation. After the US Senate voted to ramp up its pressure to punish China for keeping the yuan too low for too long, Beijing retaliated by weakening its currency setting for three consecutive sessions, sending USD/CNY midpoint above CNY6.37 from CNY6.34 record low. Amid these tensions, the US Treasury Department confirmed it would once again delay its semi-annual currency report as various congressmen continue to call for the report to name China a currency manipulator. On Thursday, September trade figures for China saw some moderate slowing in both imports and exports, as the overall surplus fell to a 4-month low $14.5B. Late in the week, China September inflation data was also somewhat soft, allowing PBoC additional scope for easing. CPI was in line with estimates at 6.1% but marked its 2nd consecutive decline, while PPI saw a 9-month low 6.5%. The remaining monthly metrics for September, along with Q3 GDP, are expected to be posted early next week.
Week of 10/17/2011 thru 10/21/2011
Monday, October 17, 2011
Economic
08:30 US Oct Empire Manufacturing
09:15 US Sept Industrial Production, Sept Capacity Utilization
10:30 Canada Q3 Business Outlook, BoC Senior Loan Officer Survey
11:30 US Treasury's 3- and 6-month bill auction
Tuesday, October 18, 2011
Economic
08:30 US Sept Producer Price Index
09:00 US Aug TIC Flows
13:00 US Treasury's 1-month and 1-year note auction
14:00 FOMC discount rate minutes
16:30 API Crude Oil/Gasoline/Distillate Inventories
Wednesday, October 19, 2011
Economic
08:30 US Sept CPI, Sept Housing Starts, Sept Building Permits, Canada Sept Leading Indicators
10:30 DoE Crude Oil/Gasoline/Distillate Inventories
14:00 Fed Beige Book
Thursday, October 20, 2011
Economic
08:30 Canada Aug Wholesale Sales, Initial Jobless Claims, Continuing Claims
10:00 US Oct Philadelphia Fed, Sept Existing Home Sales, Sept Leading Indicators
10:30 DoE Natural Gas Inventories
11:00 US Treasury's note announcement
13:00 US Treasury's 30-year TIPS auction
Please read our disclaimer:
Trading has large potential rewards, but also large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the markets. The videos are neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures or options. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Rule 4.41 - Hypothetical or simulated performance results have certain limitations. Unlike an actual performance record, simulated results do not represent actual trading. Also, since the trades have not been executed, the results may have under-or-over compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profit or losses similar to those shown. Learn to trade futures forex stocks.
08:30 US Sept Import Price Index, Sept Advance Retail Sales, Canada Aug Manufacturing Shipments
09:55 US Oct prelim University of Michigan Confidence
10:00 US Aug Business Inventories
(UK) Fitch revises support rating floors on certain UK banks, downgrades IDRs of Barclays and RBS one notch, to A from AA-
- Fitch has lowered its Support Rating Floors (SRF) for systemically important UK banks to 'A' from 'AA-' and 'A+'. As a result, Lloyds Banking Group plc's (LBG) and Royal Bank of Scotland Group plc's (RBSG) Long-term Issuer Default Ratings (IDR) have been downgraded to 'A' from 'AA-'. Separately, Fitch has also placed Barclays plc's IDR and Viability Rating (VR) on Rating Watch Negative (RWN). A full list of rating actions is at the end of this comment.
8:30:03 AM
*(US) INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS: 404K V 405KE; CONTINUING CLAIMS: 3.67M V 3.71ME
- Prior Initial Claims revised higher from 401K to 405K
- Prior Continuing Claims higher from 3.70M to 3.73M
9:14:58 AM
(EU) Plans now under consideration are said to include idea of Greece debt haircuts taking place in two phases (termed "PSI-plus") - financial press
- EU and banking leaders meeting in Paris today said to be considering various options for Greece, have still not settled on any single idea.
- Ideas include a role for the EIB, and creating an intermediate fund for to be used for bank recapitalizations. Expectation is that Greece will have to do additional privatizations to help pay off debts.
- Leaders expect the 6th Greek aid tranche will be released to Greece soon; Greece will have to give up some autonomy in exchange for the new loan package.
10:13:00 AM
(EU) No deal said to be expected on Greece debt haircuts before the EU summit on Oct 23 - financial press
- Banks said to be resisting additional Greece debt writedowns beyond the original agreement on July 21
- REMINDER: Euro zone finance ministers have scheduled a meeting for Oct 21, two days before official EU summit.
1:01:50 PM
*(US) TREASURY'S $13B 30-YEAR BOND REOPENING DRAWS 3.12%; BID-TO-COVER RATIO 2.94 V 2.85 PRIOR AND 2.78 AVG OVER THE LAST 6 REOPENINGS
- 84.23% allotted at high
- Indirect bidders take 28.7% of competitive bids, 29.5% go to Direct bidders, Primary Dealers take 41.8%
- Median 3.095%, Low 3.00%
Please read our disclaimer:
Trading has large potential rewards, but also large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the markets. The videos are neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures or options. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Rule 4.41 - Hypothetical or simulated performance results have certain limitations. Unlike an actual performance record, simulated results do not represent actual trading. Also, since the trades have not been executed, the results may have under-or-over compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profit or losses similar to those shown. Learn to trade futures forex stocks.
08:30 US Aug Trade Balance, Initial Jobless Claims, Continuing Claims
10:30 DoE Natural Gas Inventories
11:00 DoE Crude Oil/Gasoline/Distillate Inventories
13:00 US Treasury's 30-year bond auction
14:00 US Sept budget statement
(EU) EU's Barosso releases statement on bank recapitalization plans before EU parliament
- Fully coordinated approach to European bank recapitalization should be based on reassessment by supervisors of capital needs.
- Supervisors should temporarily require significantly higher capital ratios at banks, featuring high-quality capital.
- Banks should first seek private capial and only then pursue government support, if necessary. If government support is then unavailable, firms may seek capital from the EFSF.
9:39:53 AM
(SL) Slovakia opposition notes that an agreement has been reached to approve the EFSF expansion (as expected)
- Expected to approve the EFSF by Friday at the latest.
- Agreement to approve EFSF will include an early national Slovak election, as expected.
11:00:28 AM
(EU) ECB's Draghi: Italy must fix its finances and increase growth, too much time has already been wasted
- Calls on Italy to cut debt, notes that if the bond yields continue to rise it could pose a dangerous spiral and nullify budget cuts
- Remarks that the previous agreements on cuts in budget was not enough
11:03:53 AM
NY Fed: Sold $8.87B in outright coupon sale; dealers submitted $69.62B for consideration (bid to cover 7.85)
- Heaviest sale was $1.089B in the 09/30/13 maturity
- Sold maturities dated 03/31/2013 - 10/15/2013
Please read our disclaimer:
Trading has large potential rewards, but also large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the markets. The videos are neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures or options. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Rule 4.41 - Hypothetical or simulated performance results have certain limitations. Unlike an actual performance record, simulated results do not represent actual trading. Also, since the trades have not been executed, the results may have under-or-over compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profit or losses similar to those shown. Learn to trade futures forex stocks.
07:00 Canada Sept Unemployment
08:30 Canada Aug New House Price Index
13:00 US Treasury's 10-year note auction
14:00 FOMC Minutes
16:30 API Crude Oil/Gasoline/Distillate Inventories
Todays Headlines
7:45:56 AM
(EU) EU/IMF/ECB (Troika) Inspectors issue formal statement: Decisive implementation of austerity package should be enough to meet 2012 deficit target of €14.9B; confirms Greece to miss 2011 deficit target
- Says 2011 revenues significantly below expectations
8:51:47 AM
(SL) Slovakia parliament begins debate on EFSF measures; opposition Smer lawmakers said to have left the chamber in symbolic protest - financial press
**REMINDER: The Smer opposition party is in favor of EFSF ratification but wants it linked to a confidence vote that will cause a govt reshuffle. This sets up a scenario for today in which the first vote will fail in the Slovak parliament bringing down the current govt, followed by a second vote later this week in which the opposition (Smer) would help ratify the EFSF.
9:33:05 AM
(GR) Greece Fin MIn: Will meet 2012 fiscal targets and catch up on reform delays; next step is activation of the July 21 agreeement
- Notes Greece must take necessary measures before the EU summit on Oct 23rd and payment of next loan tranche.
- Welcomes Troika statement as balanced and positive.
10:00:26 AM
(US) Federal Reserve and FDIC release draft proposals to ban prop trading by banks (the so-called Volcker rule)
- The Federal Reserve Board is requesting public comment on a proposed regulation implementing the so-called "Volcker Rule" requirements of section 619 of the Dodd
11:41:14 AM
(UK) BOE's Posen: Environment for investment will continue to be challenged; pleased with the BOE's decision on additional easing
- Sees lower correlation between assets going forward.
- Expects increasing pressure on large banks to become smaller.
Please read our disclaimer:
Trading has large potential rewards, but also large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the markets. The videos are neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures or options. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Rule 4.41 - Hypothetical or simulated performance results have certain limitations. Unlike an actual performance record, simulated results do not represent actual trading. Also, since the trades have not been executed, the results may have under-or-over compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profit or losses similar to those shown. Learn to trade futures forex stocks.
“The fact that a believer is happier than a skeptic is no more to the point than the fact that a drunken man is happier than a sober one.”
Market Week Wrap-Up
- European and US equity indices snapped back sharply this week from weakness early on as European officials began hashing out concrete plans to backstop their banking system ahead of a potential Greece meltdown. Risk aversion drove trading coming into the week as leaked Greek budget figures indicated the country may miss 2011 and 2012 targets, forcing the EU to delay the payout of aid to Greece and postpone a key summit meeting. Adding to the dread, there was news that officials were discussing how to save French/Belgian bank Dexia, which was rapidly deteriorating after its big write down of Greek debt back in August. Both events seem to have overcome lingering skepticism in various European capitals - especially Berlin - that coping with Greece will require bank recapitalization. By mid week German Finance Minister Schaeuble was talking about reactivating the SoFFin stabilization fund, used to stabilize German banks in 2008, and the European Commission's Barroso indicated the EFSF could be used for backing the banks. France and Germany were disagreeing over the fine details, but were essentially on board with the plan (details are to be hashed out at the Oct 17th special EU summit, and Merkel and Sarkozy will have a conclave this weekend). The bank rescue talk reignited risk appetite and drove money out of USTs, Bunds and the dollar. Gold had dipped back below $1,600 and the dollar was at nine-month highs against the euro before sentiment reversed on Tuesday. On Thursday the BoE and ECB held rates steady, although the focus has been on various special measures launched by both institutions to hold down rates and boost liquidity. The US September non-farm payrolls report beat expectations with a +103K headline number and a +137K private payrolls figure, however the re-addition of 45K striking Verizon workers skewed these figures higher. The specter of recession was raised again in Europe by lower-than-expected final UK Q2 GDP data and the German September PMI falling below 50 for the first time since July 2009. A better than expected China manufacturing PMI reading, released over the weekend, eased some worries about an economic hard landing in the global growth engine. For the week the DJIA gained 1.7%, the S&P500 added 2.1% and the Nasdaq rose 2.7%.
- Pressure built on the big US banks this week after French-Belgian bank Dexia all but collapsed and European officials stepped up planning efforts to backstop their banks against disaster in Greece. Other factors were in play as well. Ratings agency Egan-Jones downgraded Morgan Stanley's rating to A from A+, citing uncertainty about Morgan's exposure to French banks and derivatives. There was talk that some of the firm's counterparties had lowered their exposures as credit default swap (CDS) prices on Morgan Stanley soared. A study commissioned by Congress estimates direct exposure of US banks to the European debt crisis at nearly $650B - although this week both Fed Chairman Bernanke and Treasury Sec Geithner said US bank exposure was minimal. There were unconfirmed reports that Goldman Sachs would cut bonuses to zero on expectations of a net loss in Q3, with the bank's revenue at half the amount seen in Q2. Shares of Bank of America led its competitors to the downside on Tuesday, prompting Warren Buffett to comment that he is not concerned about declines in the bank's shares.
- With markets unsettled and funding tight, M&A action has nearly dried up entirely. The only major deal news this week concerned Yahoo, shares of which gained 14% this week. On Monday, Alibaba Chairman Jack Ma said his company is very interested in acquiring Yahoo. Ma said he has had discussions with Yahoo, as well as other potential bidders. Later reports indicated that hedge fund Silver Lake was looking to join a bid for Yahoo. Rumors went around that Microsoft was rebooting its bid for the company, although Redmond moved quickly to squash this talk. In other deal news, Pharmaceutical Product Development agreed to be taken private by The Carlyle Group and Hellman & Friedman for $3.8B in cash.
- The relatively strong September same-store sales data showed that retailers benefitted from a decent back-to-school season despite the tepid economic outlook. Big-box and department stores generally topped expectations and saw better growth than in August. Target, Kohl's, Macy's, and Dillard's all roundly beat consensus estimates, while high-end names Nordstrom's and Saks both crushed expectations. JCPenny comps were negative for a second consecutive month and the company also cut its guidance for Q3 citing higher-than expected restructuring charges. Discount apparel name TJX returned to strong comps after a disappointing blip in August. The Limited repeated its double-digit comp gains as seen in August, while the Gap is still reporting comp losses, although slightly less of a loss than expected.
- EUR/USD began the week on a softer note, approaching nine-month lows below 1.3150 as technical damage to the euro and other European currencies handed momentum to the greenback. The technical picture for the euro was bearish when the "death cross" appeared on Monday's daily chart, which is when the 50-day moving average crosses below the 200-day moving average. Dealers said that the last time a death cross was seen was back in February 2010, when the euro descended from 1.3500 to 1.2000. The euro short trade got a bit crowded, however, and later on in the week some short-covering was seen ahead of the ECB rate decision. Bearish sentiment slowly drained away following comments from EU Commissioner Barroso that Europe would work to recapitalize the banking sector. EUR/USD was probing the 1.3500 neighborhood by Friday morning, aided by the sharper risk appetite that followed the US payroll data.
- Both the ECB and the Bank of England held rates steady in policy meetings this week and also announced fresh liquidity measures for markets. The ECB said it would continue to offer LTROs at fixed rates and renewed the 12-month operation. The ECB also reactivated its covered bond buying program. In his final post rate decision press conference as ECB chief, Trichet said that governors discussed the pros and cons of a possible rate cut, but the consensus was to stay on hold. Meanwhile the BoE increased its QE measures, raising the Asset Purchase Target by £75B to a total of £275B. GBP/USD fell 200 pips following the additional QE measures but found momentum to recover the losses by Friday. GBP/USD probed back towards 1.56 by Friday after testing 1.5266 earlier in the week.
- EUR/CHF saw several spurts above the 1.24 handle on hopes that the SNB might raise its floor for the cross from the 1.2000 level. The SNB made no such move and offered no comments on the subject throughout the week; the mood was also tempered after the Swiss September CPI came in above expectations. The recurring speculation about a revision in the EUR/CHF floor appeared to stem from continued Swiss government officials saying that the CHF currency remains overvalued at current levels.
- In Asia/Pacific news, interest rate decisions in Australia and Japan saw the former acknowledge a slowdown on the cooling China-driven commodity boom and the latter cheer more incremental progress in post-earthquake recovery. The RBA left interest rates unchanged but foreshadowed "heightened scope for policy to support demand" if the inflation outlook becomes more manageable. Australia's central bank expects the path for inflation to become more consistent with its 2-3% target over the next 2 years, a notably more dovish bias from the recent warnings about continued price pressure into the medium term. Late October quarterly inflation data should determine expectations for next month's meeting, with a sub-3% y/y print likely leading to a rate cut. In Tokyo, the BoJ upgraded its economic assessment, pointing to continued pick-up in production, exports, business investment, and private demand. Early in the week, the quarterly Tankan survey justified the more upbeat BoJ tone, as Q3 manufacturing and non-manufacturing components returned to growth following the sharp post-quake declines during Q2.
- China manufacturing PMI released over the weekend further alleviated worries over an economic nosedive, supporting the "soft landing" scenario advocated by policymakers in Beijing. The 51.2 print was within a decimal point of consensus and marked a four-month high and a second consecutive monthly increase. China has been on vacation for the week but returns to business with monthly inflation data on tap for Thursday. Further decline below the 6.2% CPI in August should bolster the case for a projected PBoC easing in reserve requirements.
Week of 10/10/2011 thru 10/14/2011
Monday, October 10, 2011
Economic
None Seen
Tuesday, October 11, 2011
Economic
07:30 US Sept NFIB Survey
08:15 Canada Sept Housing Starts
10:00 US Oct IBD/TIPP Survey
11:30 US Treasury's 3- and 6-month bill auction
13:00 US Treasury's 3-year note auction
14:00 FOMC Minutes
Wednesday, October 12, 2011
Economic
08:30 Canada Aug New House Price Index
13:00 US Treasury's 10-year note auction
16:30 API Crude Oil/Gasoline/Distillate Inventories
Thursday, October 13, 2011
Economic
08:30 US Aug Trade Balance, Initial Jobless Claims, Continuing Claims
10:30 DoE Natural Gas Inventories
11:00 DoE Crude Oil/Gasoline/Distillate Inventories
13:00 US Treasury's 30-year bond auction
14:00 US Sept budget statement
Friday, October 14, 2011
Economic
08:30 US Sept Import Price Index, Sept Advance Retail Sales, Canada Aug Manufacturing
Please read our disclaimer:
Trading has large potential rewards, but also large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the markets. The videos are neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures or options. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Rule 4.41 - Hypothetical or simulated performance results have certain limitations. Unlike an actual performance record, simulated results do not represent actual trading. Also, since the trades have not been executed, the results may have under-or-over compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profit or losses similar to those shown. Learn to trade futures forex stocks.
07:00 Canada Sept Unemployment
08:30 US Sept Non-Farm Payrolls, Manufacturing Payrolls, Private Payrolls, Unemployment Rate
10:00 US Aug Wholesale Inventories
15:00 US Aug Consumer Credit
Todays Headlines
8:00:41 AM
(PO) Bank of Portugal publishes Autumn Economic Bulletin: lowers 2012 GDP view to -2.2% from -1.8% prior; More measures needed to meet bailout targets
- Revises 2011 GDP to -1.9% from -2.0% prior.
- Additional measures required to meet bailout goals, in particular the budget for 2012.
- Immediate need for additional structural reforms.
8:30:03 AM
*(US) INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS: 401K V 410KE; CONTINUING CLAIMS: 3.70M V 3.725ME
- Prior Initial Claims revised higher from 391K to 395K
- Prior Continuing Claims revised higher from 3.729M to 3.752M
9:01:05 AM
(EU) ECB Trichet: Non-standard measures decided upon today look to restart the transmission of monetary policy; we found "consensus" at today's meeting - Q&A
- Governments must leverage the EFSF as much as is possible. Does not believe it would be appropriate for the ECB to leverage the EFSF.
- Considers it appropriate to leave interest rates where they are, ECB is credible in delivering price stability.
10:56:19 AM
(US) Treasury Sec Geithner: corporate balance sheets are very strong - Congressional hearing
- Hopes the Congressional supercommittee will lay the foundation for tax reform.
- Calls for global standards on banking capital and liquidity
12:00:49 PM
(UK) UK BoE Gov King: Inflation may have peaked in September; inflation could decline sharply in 2012; would not rule out further QE
- Calls the UK in the middle of a crisis.
- Expect QE to slowly seep into the economy helping to increase demand.
Please read our disclaimer:
Trading has large potential rewards, but also large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the markets. The videos are neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures or options. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Rule 4.41 - Hypothetical or simulated performance results have certain limitations. Unlike an actual performance record, simulated results do not represent actual trading. Also, since the trades have not been executed, the results may have under-or-over compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profit or losses similar to those shown. Learn to trade futures forex stocks.
08:30 Initial Jobless Claims, Continuing Claims
10:00 Canada Sept Ivey PMI
10:30 DoE Natural Gas Inventories
11:00 US Treasury announcement
Todays Headlines
7:16:03 AM
(GR) Troika is said to have made good but slow progress on Greece 2012 budget talks, however sixth tranche payment is not guaranteed - financial press
- Troika is said to have not completed review of Greece 2011 deficit, which depends on impact of latest tax increases.
- Said to have not discussed 2013 or 2014 budgets.
8:01:29 AM
(HU) Hungary Central Bank's Minutes: Voted 6 to 1 to hold rates steady in Sept
- Member Kiraly voted for 25bps rise
- Says worsening economic conditions limits fiscal maneuvering room and could allow a rate cut according to some MPC members
- No interest rate change on commitment to stability and befoe FX selling program
9:40:42 AM
(GE) German Chancellor Merkel: Prepared to recapitalize banks if required; Criteria would be needed to assess whether recapitalization is needed
- Notes private sector involvment may need to be adjusted
- Urges all euro zone nations to back changes to the EFSF
10:12:20 AM
(EU) IMF Europe Chief Borges: Not considering market involvment with the EFSF: European banks need €100-200B in fresh capital; private sector role in Greece bailout may need to be 'adjusted'
- Follow up 10:57ET: Highlights IMF's mission restricts its ability to solely lend to nations and not for intervention in bond markets. Have not had any new requests for aid from Europe.
11:01:49 AM
NY Fed: Purchased $1.37B in TIPS securities; dealers submitted $4.89B for consideration (bid to cover 3.57)
- Heaviest purchase $420M in the 02/15/40 maturity
- Purchased maturities dated 01/15/2018 - 02/15/2041
Please read our disclaimer:
Trading has large potential rewards, but also large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the markets. The videos are neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures or options. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Rule 4.41 - Hypothetical or simulated performance results have certain limitations. Unlike an actual performance record, simulated results do not represent actual trading. Also, since the trades have not been executed, the results may have under-or-over compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profit or losses similar to those shown. Learn to trade futures forex stocks.
07:30 US Sept Challenger Job Cuts
08:30 US Sept ADP Employment
10:00 US ISM Non-Manufacturing
10:30 DoE Crude Oil/Gasoline/Distillate Inventories
Todays Headlines
10:00:15 AM
(US) Fed Chairman Bernanke: Fed is ready to take more steps to aid the US economy; urges lawmakers to take action, calls fostering a healthy economy a "shared responsibility" - testimony Before JEC
- Govt sector weakness will be a drag on the US economy. Fiscal policy is of critical importance.
- Recovery has been much less robust than expected, European crisis remains an ongoing risk.
10:25:18 AM
(SZ) Hearing renewed chatter that the SNB could be contemplating raising the EUR/CHF floor from the initial level
**Reminder: On Sept 20th the Swiss Econ Min Schneider-Ammann reiterated the view that the CHF was overvalued and that the Gov't supported SNB policy
- There had been recent chatter that the SNB might raise the floor in cross to 1.25
10:58:33 AM
(NZ) Fonterra Global Dairy Trade auction: Dairy Trade price index -1.6% from prior auction on Sept 20th (-2.1% prior)
- Average winning auction price: $3,449/metric ton v $3,499/metric ton prior (lowest since Dec 2010)
- Whole milk powder: -0.7% v +1.1% prior
- Anhydrous milk fat: -3.5% v -11.2% prior
11:06:25 AM
(US) Fed's Bernanke: Fed to put out a proposal on Volcker Rule implementation within a couple weeks
for public comment - Q&A
- Reforming the tax code would be very useful, reducing healthcare costs would also help.
11:37:06 AM
(GR) German Fin Min Schaeuble: Greece needs next aid payment in the first half of November; confident that Slovakia will choose to ratify the EFSF
- EU is progreassing with moves to strengthen the stability pact; did not discuss a leveraging of the EFSF program
- WIll wait for the Troika report's conclusion before decision will be made on Greece aid tranche
Please read our disclaimer:
Trading has large potential rewards, but also large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the markets. The videos are neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures or options. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Rule 4.41 - Hypothetical or simulated performance results have certain limitations. Unlike an actual performance record, simulated results do not represent actual trading. Also, since the trades have not been executed, the results may have under-or-over compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profit or losses similar to those shown. Learn to trade futures forex stocks.
10:00 US Aug Factory Orders
11:30 US Treasury's 4-week bill auction
16:30 API Crude Oil/Gasoline/Distillate Inventories
Todays Headlines
7:24:02 AM
(BR) Brazil Central Bank Weekly Economists Survey
- Trims 12-month inflation to 5.7% from 5.8% prior
- Maintains 2011 inflation at 6.5%
- Mainatins 2012 inflation view at 5.5%
- Maintains 2011 GDP growth at 3.5%
10:41:27 AM
(GR) EU's Juncker notes that a decision from the Euro ministers on the next aid tranche for Greece will not be made today
- Reminder: Some EU members expect Greece to run out of funds by mid October if no aid tranche is approved
11:01:22 AM
(FH) Finland Min: It is too early to determine if a solution related to the collateral issue will be decided today; leveraging of the EFSF will be a topic, reiterates opposition increasing capacity of the EFSF
11:02:21 AM
NY Fed: Purchased $2.5B in outright coupon purchase; dealers submitted $7.47B for consideration (bid to cover 2.99)
- Heaviest purchase was $494M in the 08/15/39 maturity
- Purchased maturities dated 02/15/2036 - 08/15/2041
11:22:45 AM
(US) President Obama: To make an announcement about foreign trade deals within one or two days
- Wants Congress to vote on his job proposals in October.
Please read our disclaimer:
Trading has large potential rewards, but also large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the markets. The videos are neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures or options. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Rule 4.41 - Hypothetical or simulated performance results have certain limitations. Unlike an actual performance record, simulated results do not represent actual trading. Also, since the trades have not been executed, the results may have under-or-over compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profit or losses similar to those shown. Learn to trade futures forex stocks.
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