08:30 Oct Personal Income (last 0.0%), Oct Personal Spending (last -0.5%), Oct PCE Deflator y/y (last -0.5%), Oct PCE Core (last m/m 0.1%, y/y 1.3%), Oct Durable Goods Orders (last 1.4%, ex-transport 1.2%), Initial Jobless Claims (last 505K), Continuing Claims (last 5.611M)
10:00 Nov Final University of Michigan Confidence (last 66), Oct New Home Sales (last 402K, m/m -3.6%)
10:30 DoE Crude Oil/Gasoline/Distillate Inventories
12:00 Natural Gas Inventories
13:00 Treasury's 7-year note auction
Todays Headlines
10:00:02 AM
*(US) NOV CONSUMER CONFIDENCE: 49.5 V 47.3E
- prior revised from 47.7 to 48.7
- Conference Board:
- Jobs hard-to-get index in Nov at 49.8 v 49.6 m/m (Oct revised to 49.4)
- Present situation index 21 (unch m/m)
1:01:50 PM
*TREASURY'S $42B 5-YEAR NOTE AUCTION DRAWS 2.175%; BID-TO-COVER RATIO: 2.81 V 2.63 PRIOR AND 2.28 AVG OVER THE LAST 10 AUCTIONS
- indirect bidders take 60.9% of competitive bids with 67.3% allotted at the high.
- median 2.10%, low 1.94%.
- bid/cover is highest since Sept 2007.
2:00:15 PM
*MINUTES OF THE NOV 4 FOMC MEETING: SAW DECLINE IN USD AS ORDERLY; LOW RATES MAY CAUSE EXCESSIVE RISK TAKING
- Wary of falling USD and impact on inflation; risks to inflation outlook 'roughly' balanced
- certain members saw asset sales as a way to cut the size of the balance sheet
2:32:55 PM
(US) House Democrats are drafting a 0.25% tax on All financial transactions, aiming to raise $150B/year - thehill.com
- Under a bill being drafted by Democratic Reps. Peter DeFazio (Ore.) and Ed Perlmutter (Colo.), the sale and purchase of financial instruments such as stocks, options, derivatives and futures would face a 0.25% tax.
3:21:39 PM
(BR) Brazil reportedly extends tax cut on new flex-fuel vehicle sales - unconfirmed report
- Since 2007, Brazil has mandated all vehicle fuel sold in the country to comprise at least 25% ethanol and 75% gasoline. Nearly all of the vehicles sold in the country are considered flex-fuel vehicles.
Please read our disclaimer:
Trading has large potential rewards, but also large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the markets. The videos are neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures or options. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Rule 4.41 - Hypothetical or simulated performance results have certain limitations. Unlike an actual performance record, simulated results do not represent actual trading. Also, since the trades have not been executed, the results may have under-or-over compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profit or losses similar to those shown. Learn to trade futures forex stocks.
08:30 Preliminary Q3 GDP q/q (last 3.5%), Q3 GDP Price Index (last 0.8%), Q3 Personal Consumption (last 3.4%), Q3 Core PCE q/q (last 1.4%)
09:00 Sept S&P/CS Home Price Index (last 146), Sept S&P/CS Composite-20 (last -11.32%)
10:00 Oct Consumer Confidence (last 47.7), Oct Richmond Fed Manufacturing (last 7), Q3 House Price Index q/q (last -0.7%), Sept House Price Index m/m (last -0.3%)
13:00 Treasury's 5-year note auction
14:00 FOMC minutes
16:30 API Crude Oil/Gasoline/Distillate Inventories
Todays Headlines
8:19:00 AM
(EU) ECB's Trichet: Reiterates that exceptional public support for the financial sector has to be withdrawn at some point , withdrawal will be gradual
- Some ECB measures will expire naturally and not all operations would be needed in the future
- Liquidity will be absorbed to avoid inflation; ECB will continue to deliver price stability
- Covered bond purchases have been effective
- Pro-cyclicality of banking needs to be mitigated
12:37:44 PM
(BR) Brazil Treasury official: Cannot rule out additional measures to contain appreciation in REAL; unlikely will use Sovereign wealth fund to purchase USD
- aiming to maintain capital inflows tax on IPO at the moment.
- says Brazil's inflow tax did not dampen debt purchases in October.
12:18:19 PM
(MX) Fitch cuts foreign currency rating one notch to BBB from BBB+; outlook Stable
- Fitch downgraded Mexico's foreign currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR) to ''BBB'' from ''BBB+'' and local currency IDR to ''BBB+'' from ''A-''. In addition, the country ceiling was downgraded to ''A-'' from ''A''.
1:01:41 PM
*TREASURY'S $44B 2-YEAR NOTE AUCTION DRAWS 0.802%; BID-TO-COVER RATIO 3.16 V 3.63 PRIOR AND 2.92 AVE OVER LAST 10 AUCTIONS
- indirect bidders take 44.5% of competitive bids with 95.8% alotted at the high
- median bid 0.77%, low bid 0.655%
Please read our disclaimer:
Trading has large potential rewards, but also large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the markets. The videos are neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures or options. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Rule 4.41 - Hypothetical or simulated performance results have certain limitations. Unlike an actual performance record, simulated results do not represent actual trading. Also, since the trades have not been executed, the results may have under-or-over compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profit or losses similar to those shown. Learn to trade futures forex stocks.
"Don't let what you cannot do interfere with what you can do."
Market Week Wrap-up
- Trading began on a positive note this week, as indices pushed out to a fresh 13-month highs despite the slide in the November Empire Manufacturing data on Monday. Equity indices were flat mid week as October housing starts declined to their lowest level since April, and building permits came in to the downside and corporate news remained fairly light. On Wednesday the Baltic Dry Index rose to its highest levels since last September, another milestone of the Asian recovery. But things fell apart on Thursday as equity weakness in Asia on concerns of a growing asset bubble carried through into European and US trading, firmly knocking US equities off their highs. Light volume and the weekly jobless claims data were a contributing factor, as the data came in very modestly higher. Bleak earnings from Dell and USD strength kept equities weak into the close on Friday. For the week, the Nasdaq composite led the way down, weighed on by a note from Merrill downgrading the tech sector, including such heavyweights as Intel and Microsoft: the Nasdaq dropped 1.0%, the S&P 500 declined 0.2%, while the DJIA eked out a 0.4% gain,
- The week commenced with markets squarely focused on the first official remarks from Fed Chairman Bernanke since the FOMC meeting two weeks ago. The advanced text of his speech to the NY economics club appeared heavy on strong US dollar rhetoric, providing some hope for the weary greenback. This rhetoric was quickly dismissed as it became clear that a continued low inflation outlook coupled with a dismal employment picture will force the Fed to keep rates low for an extended period of time. In the Q&A session, the Chairman acknowledged that the Fed needs to deal with the possibility of developing asset bubbles, but noted he has yet to see any "large misalignments" in US valuations. The weaker-than-expected US Producer Price Index and Industrial Production data only confirmed Bernanke's comment that significant challenges still face the US economy and prompted many to speculate that the FOMC's long period of low borrowing costs might get even longer. As PIMCO's Bill Gross wrote in his monthly outlook this week, the US needs another 12 months of 4-5% nominal GDP growth before the Fed dares exiting the "0% foxhole, mini-bubbles or not."
- Many participants took Bernanke's comments to mean the door will remain open to the notion of the US Dollar as a funding currency and the accompanying expansion of risk appetite. The Fed's Yellen only added strength to this argument (and raised some eyebrows) when she said on Wednesday that the US stock market is not overvalued and credit spreads do not reflect a bubble. In addition, the Fed's Bullard gave markets a history lesson, warning that the FOMC did not begin rate increases until two to three years after the end of each of the past two recessions. The comment was misinterpreted and immediately sparked rumors that Bullard had said the Fed would be "on hold" until 2012, providing bearish dollar momentum and boosting spot gold to yet another all-time high.
- Financial names helped push overall equity markets lower this week, especially after another serving of doom and gloom from Meredith Whitney. On Monday she said "I have not been this bearish on financials in a year" and reiterated that banks will need to raise more capital. The press speculated that the administration would extend TARP through 2010 (last week it was reported that TARP has $239B in unspent funding). On the positive side, October credit card master trust data showed that on the whole net charge offs declined sequentially for a second month in a row, offering more evidence that the business is stabilizing. The October advanced retail sales data jumped dramatically, to a 1.5% gain versus a 1.5% decline in September, although many commentators pointed out that the data owes most of its big gain to auto sales. Continuing discussions of a Tobin Tax on financial transactions lurked in the background in both the US and Europe.
- Commodities, not surprisingly, benefited from the strengthening belief that rates won't change any time soon. Gold prices continue to garner the lion's share of headlines: the metal hit all time highs above $1,150 late in the week and closed not far below this level. Despite the run up, hedge fund guru John Paulson announced plans to launch a new gold fund on January 1st, backed by his own money. Following in gold's wake, silver and copper are trading near their best levels of 2009. Oil gave some ground late in the week while distillates underperformed on Friday on concerns that building inventories will outstrip demand. January WTI is now the most actively traded contract and closed below its 20-day EMA for the second straight week.
- Treasury prices surged on Monday helped by the fallout from Bernanke's comments. The 10-year yield has spent the duration of the week under its 200 day EMA for the first time since early October. The move at the short end of the curve has been even more dramatic. Some T-bill rates went negative on Thursday while the 6-month bill hit its lowest rate on record. The 2-year yield made fresh 14-month lows below 0.7% while the curve experienced some steepening midweek. CPI data came in a little hotter than expected buoying long end yields. The benchmark spread has widened out towards its highest level in months at 265 basis points.
- In currency trading, the greenback has only benefitted from lower equities and generally supportive comments from a variety of sources, with the exception of some non-conciliatory rhetoric out of the Sino-American summit. Traders were fixated all week on an alleged defense of a binary option with a range of 1.48 to 1.51 by a Far East central bank. The lower portion was tested several times ahead of its expiration at the Friday NY cut, with plenty of central bank speak, data and rumors helping EUR/USD probe both ends of the option. Just ahead of the Friday cut, a particularly creative rumor made the rounds that Ukraine had defaulted on its sovereign debt. In Europe, more factual sovereign ratings worries impacted the euro briefly, as Greece attempted to plug revenue holes in its 2010 budget via a worrisome combination of tax increases and spending cuts. Now that 2009 is winding down liquidity conditions should be impacted in the final weeks of the year by some long-term participants moving to the sidelines to focus on their game-plans for next year.
- During his visit to Beijing, President's Obama voiced his approval of China's recent comments about moving toward a more market-oriented exchange rate. Chinese President Hu had no comment on the subject. The Chinese vice minister of foreign affairs followed up on the subject later, insisting that China's stance on exchange rate was very clear, that there had been a misunderstanding about currency reform and that exchange rates were a secondary component in resolving global imbalances. In the wake of the US visit, IMF Chief Strauss-Kahn reiterated that a stronger yuan would benefit China by increasing domestic demand. Note that in his monthly outlook, PIMCO's Bill Gross forecasted that China may abandon its dollar peg within six months' time and with it, its own easy monetary policy. On the positive side, ECB Chief Trichet slightly altered his strong dollar statement, noting that a strong dollar was "in the international interest" rather than the usual comment that the US wants a strong dollar. OPEC President Vasconcelos said OPEC needs to "reflect" on pricing oil in dollars. But despite all the talk, the dollar's current course seems likely to remain intact until the Fed turns up the rhetoric on its exit strategy.
- Throughout the week, Central bank officials around the world discussed measures designed to fend off currency appreciation. Officials in India, South Korea and Indonesia expressed concern about capital inflows over inflating stock and real estate prices. Indonesia's central bank said it is studying limits on inflows to short-term bills. Note that last week Taiwan banned international investors from placing funds in time deposits. Brazil also presented details on its plans to tax capital inflows in an attempt to discourage speculation and excessive strength in the Brazilian Real. The Russian Central Bank mentioned that a Tobin Tax could be needed to curb speculative cross-border currency flows. Some commentators called all this talk by its true name: protectionism.
- The week in Asia saw the Bank of Japan leave interest rates unchanged at 0.1% while also upgrading its assessment on the economy in spite of the recent disappointments from consumer confidence, manufacturing activity and tertiary industrial data. In a unanimous decision, BOJ said the decline in consumer prices as well as CAPEX are likely to keep narrowing as exports and production continue to improve. JGB yields rose in the wake of the central bank decision, as the market cheered the positive assessment at a time when many have questioned the timing of the BOJ decision to pull out from its asset buying program. With the latest move, Japan's central bank is also likely to have widened the rift with the new administration, whose vocal outlook has been significantly more cautious. Ahead of the central bank decision, Finance Minister Fujii said that rising yields could defeat the purpose of government action to ease funding for small companies and urged policymakers to keep price trends in mind when managing the economy. A more vocal critic, Deputy Prime Minister Kan said he planned to take additional steps to communicate to the Bank of Japan that the nation is in deflation. Subsequently, the Japanese November Cabinet Monthly Report officially declared the economy in deflation, the first time it did so since 2006.
- Early in the week, the Japanese economy posted its second consecutive quarter of growth in Q3 with better than expected preliminary GDP data, coming in at 1.2% quarter over quarter, showing the best growth rate since early 2007. Despite the strong headline data, analysts remained cautious, pointing to further uncertainty as fiscal stimulus effects wane. Japanese government officials were also hardly impressed, reaffirming commitment to a secondary extra budget totaling as much as Y2.7T, warning about deflationary trends in prices, and pointing to ongoing softness in the labor market.
- The Australian dollar was one of the more heavily sold majors for much of the week, falling to a two-week low around 0.9140. On Tuesday, the meeting minutes of the RBA's policy meeting left the pace of tightening open ended, stressing the short-term significance of supporting business and consumer confidence as economic stimulus fades. Policymakers did reiterate that underlying inflation is consistent with 2010 targets and not as low as initially thought, even with Aussie dollar strength countering those price pressures. Then on Wednesday, the Australian dollar extended its correction from the recent multi-month highs against the greenback and other majors on slowing Q3 wage growth data. Year over year wage growth came in at 3.6%, nearly a 5-year low.
Week of 11/23/2009 thru 11/27/2009
The weekly calendar for Nov 23rd -27th can be accessed at the following address
Please read our disclaimer:
Trading has large potential rewards, but also large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the markets. The videos are neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures or options. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Rule 4.41 - Hypothetical or simulated performance results have certain limitations. Unlike an actual performance record, simulated results do not represent actual trading. Also, since the trades have not been executed, the results may have under-or-over compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profit or losses similar to those shown. Learn to trade futures forex stocks.
8:30 Initial Jobless Claims (last 502K), Continuing Claims (last 5.631M)
10:00 Sept Leading Indicators (last 1.0%), Nov Philadelphia Fed (last 11.5)
10:30 Natural Gas Inventories
11:00 Treasury note announcement
Todays Headlines
9:15:25 AM
(US) Fed's Bullard: It is possible that the Fed will not raise rates to 2012 assuming Fed behaves same way as it has in the past; too big to fail must be addressed
- Bullard notes that the Fed is aware of the criticism relating to its maintaining of interest rates at low levels contributing to the housing market bubble; and that assuming the FOMC acts in the same way as it has previously; the FOMC may not start raising rates until the beginning of 2012
- FOMC did not begin policy rate increases until 2.5 to 3years after the end of each of the past two recessions
10:30:04 AM
*DOE CRUDE: -880K V +1.1ME; GASOLINE: -1.75M V +850KE; DISTILLATE: -330K V -800KE; CAPACITY UTILIZATION: 79.4% V 80.0%E
- Distillate demand +60K bpd to 3.6M bpd
- Gasoline demand +170K bpd to 9.01M bpd
- Strategic Petroleum Reserve unchanged at 725.1M bbl
12:06:29 PM
(RU) Nordstream Chairman Schroeder: Russia to remain a "secure" energy supplier, sees no Russia/Ukraine gas conflict this winter
- Note that earlier in the session, the Ukraine PM said Ukraine plans to double transit fees for Russian gas, effective Jan 1, 2010.
12:30:34 PM
(SZ) SNB's Hildebrand: Questions remain about the sustainability of the recovery, "too big to fail" issue has not been resolved
- Too big to fail is a particular issue for Switzerland, tougher regulations may be imposed in Switz than elsewhere.
- Ideally banking reform to be coordinated on a global basis.
3:30:38 PM
Market Internals update at 3:30pmET
- NYSE volume 780M shares, about 15% below its three-month average; decliners lead advancers by 1.9:1.
- NASDAQ volume 1.69B shares, about 10% below its three-month average; decliners lead advancers by 1.9:1.
- VIX index -1.35% to just over 22.00
Please read our disclaimer:
Trading has large potential rewards, but also large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the markets. The videos are neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures or options. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Rule 4.41 - Hypothetical or simulated performance results have certain limitations. Unlike an actual performance record, simulated results do not represent actual trading. Also, since the trades have not been executed, the results may have under-or-over compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profit or losses similar to those shown. Learn to trade futures forex stocks.
4:30 BoE minutes
8:30 Oct CPI (last m/m 0.2%, y/y -1.3%; ex food & energy last m/m 0.2%, y/y 1.5%), Oct CPI Core Index SA (last 220.053), Oct Housing Starts (last 590K), Oct Building Permits (last 573K)
10:30 DoE Crude Oil/Gasoline/Distillate Inventories
Todays Headlines
9:00:02 AM
*SEPT NET LONG TERM TIC FLOWS: $40.7B V 30.0BE; TOTAL NET TIC FLOWS: $133.5B V $10.2B PRIOR
- Prior Net Long Term TIC flowa revised from $28.6B to $34.2B
- Prior Total Net TIC flows revised from $10.2B to $25.3B
- No revisions
10:15:22 AM
Fed's Lacker: Sees lengthy period of sustained growth; major banks can now support new lending
- notes the economy has hit bottom; expects reasonable pace of growth in GDP for 2010
- should exit measures when growth is established, not necessarily when growth is vigorous
- 1.5% inflation rate is 'ideal'
10:30:30 AM
ECB's Stark: Economic freefall has come to an end; while confidence is increasing, economy to remain volatile
- Should not add new incentives for moral hazard
- Have seen positive improvements on institutional side
- Now closer to phasing out extra liquidity steps
- Output and employment to remain volatile
12:38:27 PM
(EU) ECB's Trichet: Listened to remarks by Fed Chairman Bernanke yesterday "with great interest," agrees fully with Bernanke's analysis
- Improved market conditions imply that not all liquidity is needed to the same extent; sees recovery arriving at a gradual pace next year.
- Reiterates current monetary policy and rates are appropriate, mid term inflation pressures are low.
- Reiterates that he appreciates US comments on a strong USD.
- Reiterates that inflation expectations are firmly anchored.
12:52:04 PM
(EU) EU's Juncker: Euro has not reached a "problematic level" as of yet, recent euro volatility is not welcome
- Agrees with the position of ECB's Trichet on Fed Chairman Bernanke's comments on the USD.
- Warns against premature economic euphoria, will take a long time to return to pre-crisis levels.
- Calls for budget consolidation as soon as possible.
1:00:03 PM
*NOV NAHB HOUSING MARKET INDEX: 17 V 19E
- prior revised from 18 to 17
- NAHB Chmn: "When the HMI survey was conducted at the beginning of this month, home builders were facing the imminent expiration of the $8,000 first-time home buyer tax credit at the end of November, with no guarantee that this valuable buyer incentive would be extended, We are very hopeful that this will have the intended stimulative effect on sales activity going forward, builders are facing challenges in obtaining credit for new housing production and appropriate appraisal values for their homes"
Please read our disclaimer:
Trading has large potential rewards, but also large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the markets. The videos are neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures or options. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Rule 4.41 - Hypothetical or simulated performance results have certain limitations. Unlike an actual performance record, simulated results do not represent actual trading. Also, since the trades have not been executed, the results may have under-or-over compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profit or losses similar to those shown. Learn to trade futures forex stocks.
"In any moment of decision the best thing you can do is the right thing, the next best thing is the wrong thing, and the worst thing you can do is nothing."
8:30am Oct PPI (last m/m -0.6%, y/y -4.8%, ex food & energy last m/m -0.1%, y/y 1.8%)
9:00am Sept Net Long-Term TIC Flows (last $28.6B), Sept Total Net TIC Flows (last $10.2B)
9:15am Oct Industrial Production (last 0.7%), Oct Capacity Utilization (last 70.5%)
10:00am TAF results
1:00pm NAHB Housing Market Index (last 18)
4:30pm API Crude Oil/Gasoline/Distillate Inventories
Todays Headlines
8:30:03 AM
*(US) NOV EMPIRE MANUFACTURING: 23.5 V 30.0E
- No revisions
Component
- Prices Paid: 10.53 v 19.5 prior
- New Orders: 16.61 v 35.1 prior
- Employment: 1.32 v 10.4 prior**
8:34:31 AM
IMF Strauss Kahn: It is in the interests of the Chinese people for Yuan to rise; desires having Special Drawiing Rights (SDRs) used for trade in 10 years
- Developing use o fSDRs is credible and realistic
- Idea of building up the role of the SDRover the next 10-15 years was a good one.
- liked the idea of eventually using a basket of currencies to denominate trade and backed a bigger role for the Special Drawing Right
12:15:32 PM
(US) Fed Chairman Bernanke: Fed's mandate also includes keeping USD strong; sees moderate economic growth continuing through 2010; monitoring developments in USD closely
- Notes that it is part of the Fed mandate to help keep USD strong
- Jobs to remain scarce for some time, hurting spending; credit demand has declined 'significantly'
- Inflation to remain subdued for some time, pledges to monitor inflation closely
1:00:22 PM
(UK) BoE's Sentance: Risk of keeping policy too loose for too long; unemployment appears to be leveling off at 2.5M
- will evaluate if easing is appropriate in February; fiscal tightening is crucial long term; must be a 'significant' tightening
- there are risks to additional upside in oil prices
3:17:44 PM
Meredith Whitney: "I have not been this bearish in a year," reiterates that banks will raise capital again; believes there will be a double dip recession in 2010 - CNBC
- believes banks will go back to tangible book value
- feels that Bernanke did not say enough in speech today; including how to exit programs even though they are almost finished
- comments that does not feel that banks are well capitalized; feels there is another leg to go in commercial real estate
Please read our disclaimer:
Trading has large potential rewards, but also large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the markets. The videos are neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures or options. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Rule 4.41 - Hypothetical or simulated performance results have certain limitations. Unlike an actual performance record, simulated results do not represent actual trading. Also, since the trades have not been executed, the results may have under-or-over compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profit or losses similar to those shown. Learn to trade futures forex stocks.
"I've missed more than 9000 shots in my career. I've lost almost 300 games. 26 times, I've been trusted to take the game winning shot and missed. I've failed over and over and over again in my life. And that is why I succeed."
Market Week Wrap-up
-US indices hit fresh 13-month highs this week and the DJIA managed to close above 10,250 as risk appetite flared up worldwide.
Equities, gold and oil rose in tandem through the first half of the week, with crude testing $80 and gold making all-time highs above $1,120.
With little US economic data on tap, markets were propelled by strength from Asia and Europe, especially reports of improving GDP performance in both regions.
In China, PBoC vice governor Ma reiterated that China would be able to achieve 8% GDP growth this year, while continental Europe's biggest economies officially emerged from recession.
An unexpected build in US crude and gasoline inventories data on Thursday took the wind out of crude in the latter part of the week, helped along by some firming in the US dollar. Potentially troubling results from two high-profile US data reports weren't able to stop equities on Friday.
The September US trade deficit grew 18% sequentially, for the fastest rise in the series since early 1999. Traders preferred to concentrate on imports, which surged at the quickest monthly rate in nearly 15 years, although Goldman Sachs warned the data suggests a likely downward revision to Q3 GDP.
Meanwhile the preliminary University of Michigan consumer sentiment index for November came in at 66.0, down from 70.6 in October and below expectations.
For the week, the DJIA gained 2.5%, the S&P 500 climbed 2.3%, and the Nasdaq rose 2.6%.
Week of 11/9/2009 thru 11/13/2009
The weekly calendar for Nov 16-20 can be accessed at the following address
Please read our disclaimer:
Trading has large potential rewards, but also large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the markets. The videos are neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures or options. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Rule 4.41 - Hypothetical or simulated performance results have certain limitations. Unlike an actual performance record, simulated results do not represent actual trading. Also, since the trades have not been executed, the results may have under-or-over compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profit or losses similar to those shown. Learn to trade futures forex stocks.
8:30am Sept Trade Balance (last -$30.7B), Oct Import Price Index (last m/m 0.1%, y/y -12%)
9:55am Nov prelim Univ of Michigan confidence (last 70.6)
10:30am Natural Gas Inventories
Todays Headlines
8:30:02 AM
*(US) INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS: 502K V 510KE; CONTINUING CLAIMS: 5.631M V 5.700ME (lowest initial claims since Jan 2nd)
- Prior Initial Claims revised from 512K to 514K - Prior Continuing Claims revised from 5.749M to 5.770M - Four-week mvg avg initial claims at 519.8K, lowest since Nov 29th, 2008 ***Note Continuing claims lowest level since Mar 14th, 2009
10:11:18 AM
(GE) Dealer chatter circulating that German bank WestLB could receive futher €3.0B cash from government
***Note: Dealers point out that move by SOFFIN would be to help WestLB with its plan to split itself in two, offloading around €85B worth of risky assets to a "bad bank" and creating a healthy core bank that will focus on corporate customers
11:00:06 AM
*DOE CRUDE: +1.8M V +900KE; GASOLINE: +2.6M V -300KE; DISTILLATE: +350K V -600KE; CAPACITY UTILIZATION: 79.9% V 80.6%E
- Distillate demand -27K bpd to 3.54M bpd - Gasoline demand -171K bpd to 8.84M bpd - Strategic Petroleum Reserve unchanged at 725.1M bbl
1:01:39 PM
TREASURY'S $16B 30-YEAR BOND auction draws 4.469%; BID-TO-COVER RATIO 2.26 V 2.54 PRIOR AND 2.28 AVG OVER THE LAST 4
- indirect bidders take 44% of competitive bids with 18% allotted at the high - median 4.388%, low 4.284%
2:00:06 PM
*OCT MONTHLY BUDGET STATEMENT: -$176.4B V -$165BE
- 13th straight month of budget deficits; longest in recorded history - Total receipts: $135.3B v $164.8 y/y (-17.9%) - Total spending: $311.7B v $320.4B y/y (-2.7%)
Please read our disclaimer:
Trading has large potential rewards, but also large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the markets. The videos are neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures or options. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Rule 4.41 - Hypothetical or simulated performance results have certain limitations. Unlike an actual performance record, simulated results do not represent actual trading. Also, since the trades have not been executed, the results may have under-or-over compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profit or losses similar to those shown. Learn to trade futures forex stocks.
8:30am Initial Jobless Claims (last 512K), Continuing Claims (last 5.749M)
11:00am DoE Crude Oil/Gasoline/Distillate Inventories
1:00pm Treasury's 30-year bond auction
2:00pm Oct Monthly Budget Statement (last -$155B)
Todays Headlines
5:30:49 AM
*(UK) BOE QUARTERLY INFLATION REPORT: RAISES FORECAST FOR UK INFLATION AND GROWTH; DECLINES IN GBP TO HELP UK TRADE POSITION
- The BOE sees CPI below target around 1.6% in two years assuming market rate path and £200B QE measures.
- CPI to rise sharply above 2% target in short term but spare capacity to push CPI Back Below 2% from mid-2010 period.
- Forecasts CPI exceeding 2% in 2012
- Expects upward revision to Q3 GDP
7:05:26 AM
OPEC Nov Report: Raises 2010 global demand to 750K bpd (+50K bpd m/m; +7%); sees quota compliance down m/m (62% prior)
- Sees 2009 world oil demand 84.31M bpd (v 84.24M bpd prior). Although certain signs are indicating stronger oil demand, weak consumption in the US along with a declining dollar is likely to suppress positive performance in oil demand in Q4.
- Sees 2010 world oil demand 85.1M bpd (v 84.93M bpd prior). The low base in world oil demand in 2009 is suggesting a stronger increase in oil demand growth for 2010.
10:17:25 AM
(HU) Hungary Fin State Sec Katona: Economy might have bottomed in Q2
- Believes that Q3 GDP will be better with Q4 'significantly' better
10:28:39 AM
(US) Fitch: Credit Card Profitability to Remain Challenged
- Rising unemployment and credit card loss rates did moderate during third-quarter 2009 (3Q''09) and early stage delinquencies came down from 2Q''09 peak levels, but Fitch expects higher loss rates into 2010 as delinquency roll rates remain high, bankruptcies increase, portfolio contraction continues, and elevated unemployment rates persist.
10:31:39 AM
European Market Internals update at 10:30am ET
- FTSE100 volume 701.9M shares, about 6% lower than its 30 trading day moving average
- DAX30 volume 69.4M shares, about 26% lower than its 30 trading day moving average
- CAC40 volume 94.2M shares, about 13% lower than its 30 trading day moving average
12:00:31 PM
(EU) ECB's Weber: expecting more insolvencies and unemployment in Germany; too early to reverse stimulus
- Worst is over for most countries; crisis will hurt growth through 2013
Please read our disclaimer:
Trading has large potential rewards, but also large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the markets. The videos are neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures or options. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Rule 4.41 - Hypothetical or simulated performance results have certain limitations. Unlike an actual performance record, simulated results do not represent actual trading. Also, since the trades have not been executed, the results may have under-or-over compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profit or losses similar to those shown. Learn to trade futures forex stocks.
Recommend bond market close for Veterans Day holiday
Todays Headlines
8:30:24 AM
(US) USDA November Crop Report: Soybean crop seen up 2.1% from Oct forecasts (largest on record)
* Corn Production Down 1% from October Forecast
* Soybean Production Up 2% from October Forecast
* Cotton Production Down 4% from October Forecast
8:40:31 AM
(US) Treasury Official: Important for China to increase domestic consumption; Welcomes China's commitment to move towards a more flexible fx regime over time
- Treasury Secretary Geithner will hold talks tomorrow and meet with PM Hatoyama and BoJ Governor Shirakawa
- Geithner had told Japan it should move away from exports towards domestic demand
8:54:54 AM
(US) Senator Baucus: urges Obama to resolve concerns blocking Korea, Colombia, Panama trade deals; back proposal for Trans-Pacific trade pact
- US Senate will not finish work this year on Climate Change legislation
- Bill needs to have strong border measures to protect US manufacturers from other countries that do not address climate change
9:08:53 AM
(US) Fed's Lockhart: Overall economic picture is "quite mixed," commercial real estate problems could weaken the recovery
- Commercial real estate does not represent a "broad risk" to the financial system, represents an economic headwind.
- Believes economic recovery is underway, began in summer. Financial system has clearly stabilized.
- There are signs that conditions are improving and housing has bottomed out.
11:01:31 AM
ECB's Gonzalez-Paramo: Exit measures are not a signal for near term interest rate adjustments; May decide to hold covered bonds until maturity; could sell bonds gradually
- notes that the ECB measures should be not considering a signal of interest rate changes; ECB will absorb the liquidity in efforts to restrain threats to price stability
- notes that the financial crisis is not over
Please read our disclaimer:
Trading has large potential rewards, but also large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the markets. The videos are neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures or options. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Rule 4.41 - Hypothetical or simulated performance results have certain limitations. Unlike an actual performance record, simulated results do not represent actual trading. Also, since the trades have not been executed, the results may have under-or-over compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profit or losses similar to those shown. Learn to trade futures forex stocks.
10:00pm Nov IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism (last 48.7)
4:30pm API Crude Oil/Gasoline/Distillate Inventories
1:00pm Treasury's 10-year note auction
Todays Headlines
9:04:10 AM
EU Draft statement: Reportedly to tighten terms for government banking-industry guarantees in mid-2010 period
- EU governments should begin making national plans less attractive by bringing the pricing of support closer to market conditions
9:21:01 AM
(UR) Ukraine Deputy Premier: IMF will cooperate on loan; Ukraine must meet certain IMF requirements
- EU to give Ukraine €610 in 2009 but loan depends on country's cooperation with IMF
9:44:35 AM
National Hurricane Center (NHC): Ida weakens to Tropical storm, still expected to slice to the right of oil interests
Location: 26.5°N 88.3°W
Max sustained: 70 mph from 90 mph prior
Moving: NNW at 17 mph
Min pressure: 996 mb v 988 mb prior
9:55:08 AM
(US) Connecticut Attorney General to reportedly announce an investigation into an as of yet unnamed insurer later today
- Reports indicate the announcement will come at approx 11am
1:01:42 PM
*TREASURY'S $40B 3-YEAR NOTES DRAW 1.404%; BID-TO-COVER RATIO: 3.33 V 2.76 PRIOR AND 2.63 AVG OVER THE LAST 10 AUCTIONS
- indirect bidders take 68.5% of competitive bids
- 38.42% allotted at high
- Median 1.37%; Low 1.25%
Please read our disclaimer:
Trading has large potential rewards, but also large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the markets. The videos are neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures or options. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Rule 4.41 - Hypothetical or simulated performance results have certain limitations. Unlike an actual performance record, simulated results do not represent actual trading. Also, since the trades have not been executed, the results may have under-or-over compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profit or losses similar to those shown. Learn to trade futures forex stocks.
"Courage doesn't always roar. Sometimes courage is the quiet voice at the end of the day, saying,"I will try again tomorrow."
Market Week Wrap-up
- Economic data and a lack of surprises from the Fed helped US equity markets break two weeks of downward momentum this week.
Anticipation ran high ahead of Wednesday's FOMC decision as market participants speculated whether the Fed would change its commitment to keeping rates low for an "extended period" of time.
The comment remained untouched and another key line was changed to read household spending is "expanding" (rather than the "seeing signs of stabilization" verbiage in the prior statement).
In the latter half of the week, investors obsessed over three days of US employment data. Wednesday's October ADP employment report showed slightly more job losses than expected, although the numbers declined by the smallest month-over-month loss since July 2008. On Thursday the weekly jobless claims numbers hit their lowest levels since the very beginning of 2009.
On Friday, the annualized October unemployment rate popped over 10% and the decline in Oct nonfarm payrolls was bigger than expected. But traders took some comfort from the August and September nonfarm payroll revisions which were bumped up by a total of about 90 thousand jobs, contributing to an improving three-month moving average.
After all the data was out on Friday, PIMCO's Paul McCulley said he expects job creation to be a "very slow slog." Front month crude ended the week just above where it began, at $77.50, while gold pushed out to another record high of $1,100 on Friday. For the week, the DJIA, Nasdaq Composite and S&P 500 Index each gained about 3.2%.
- Warren Buffet's big play for Burlington Northern dominated headlines mid-week. Berkshire Hathaway said it would acquire the 77% of the railroad firm it did not already own for $100/share in cash and stock, in a deal valued at $44B. Buffet noted that the stock component was a sweetener to BNI holders "for tax purposes" and called the deal a "bet on America." In the aftermath of the announcement, Berkshire's board approved a 50-1 split of its class B stock in order to accommodate smaller holders of BNI and S&P placed the company's AAA ratings on watch negative. In other M&A news, investment firms TPG Capital and CPP Investment Board announced a deal to acquire IMS Health for more than $5B in cash.
- Health insurance stocks have made impressive gains thanks to a strong Republican showing in Tuesday's elections and solid quarterly earnings out of sector-leading firms. Many commentators called the Republican gubernatorial wins in Virginia and New Jersey a referendum against the healthcare plans of President Obama and the Congressional Democrats. Aetna, Cardinal Health and Cigna exceeded expectations in quarterly earnings reports. Note that Aetna trimmed its full-year guidance range, and warned that the uncertain employment situation in 2010 may constrain the business. Casualty insurer Allstate missed top- and bottom-line estimates.
- In other earnings, Cisco Systems lead the broader tech sector higher after beating estimates and adding even more funding to the company's giant stock buyback program. CVS remains down significantly after the company said its pharmacy benefits management business may decline as much as 12% in 2010. Kraft beat bottom-line expectations and missed revenue targets. The company said it remains interested in Cadbury but also said it is "well positioned with or without Cadbury." Ford reported its first profitable quarter since early 2008 and said the firm would be "breakeven or better" by 2011. Toyota reported a loss for the first half of FY09. GM's Finance arm GMAC disclosed that its quarterly loss doubled on a sequential basis in Q3, with credit losses more than doubling.
- The New York Times took a pot shot at Citigroup on Sunday, asking in a headline whether the bank will be able to "carry its own weight." The article discussed looming problems in Citi's huge credit card portfolio and called the bank's financial architecture "rickety." Rochdale's Dick Bove commented on the piece, saying "Citigroup is dead, a smaller Citicorp will arise." The drumbeat of negative commentary on commercial real estate intensified this week. "Two years into a substantial economic downturn, loan quality is poor across many asset classes and … continues to deteriorate," said Jon Greenlee, the Fed's associate director of banking supervision. Greenlee said commercial real estate problems would put pressure on bank earnings. Meredith Whitney reaffirmed her long-term cautious view on the sector, warning that profits will pressured by more deleveraging, restructuring, regulatory uncertainty and further withdrawal of credit from the system.
- Financial basket cases AIG and Fannie Mae reported third quarter results. AIG managed to rack up its second straight quarterly profit, although it was a fraction of the $1.8 billion gain in Q2 (and much better than last fall's $24B loss). The latest results included $1.95B in special gains, including improvement in the value of securities held by the infamous AIG Financial Products. Fannie Mae lost nearly $19B and asked the US Treasury for another $15B in funding. Fannie said it expects home prices to decline another 6% in 2009, with weakness in real estate to continue into 2010.
- Short dated yields came under some pressure on Wednesday after the FOMC maintained its commitment to keeping rates exceptionally low for an extended period. The statement threw cold water on the notion the Fed needs to raise rates soon, a move that several major financial publications had called for over the weeks leading up to the November decision. The 2-year note yield fell some 5bps in the immediate aftermath of the announcement, with 2s and 10s steepening though 260bps for the first time since the middle of the summer. Friday's mixed employment reports saw buying return to the belly and long end, with the yield on the benchmark 10y Note briefly dipping back below 3.50%. Fed Fund futures are not pricing in any chance of a rate hike until likely the summer of 2010, but in contrast 10y TIPS breakeven spreads are sitting right at their highest levels of the year, and near levels last seen in August 2008. Next week, things remain interesting as the market faces $81B in refunding, with a significant drop in duration, as almost half of the supply is in longer parts of the curve.
- In FX, the greenback tried its best to break key levels during the early part of the trading week and ditch the carry-trade funding reputation it has acquired since spring, but EUR/USD managed to hold the key 1.4630 March uptrend line. The dollar's price action sustained its inverse relationship to the equity and commodity markets, while the media continued focus on the fact that US Treasury officials are not expressing any concerns about dollar weakness and seem to believe current trading is not a major concern for the country. Dealing desks note chatter circulating about good selling pressure in USD/CNY long-dated forwards ahead of President Obama's visit to China later this month. Dealers are again speculating that these sorts of developments could prompt a weaker dollar again other Asian pairs in coming months.
- Early in the week the dollar benefited from a spat of risk aversion stemming from the financial sector after the British government said it would provide more aid to Lloyds and RBS and CIT filed for bankruptcy protection. An EU Commission report complemented risk fears, warning of more banking sector losses in region. The Commission said losses in the sector could run as high as between €200-400B in 2009-10. Meanwhile, an EU growth forecast highlighted some of the fiscal constraints on member state budgets over the next several years. Greece announced a one-off charge on its 300 biggest companies to raise just under €900M in funds. Fallout from the recession caused Fitch this week to cut Ireland's sovereign rating one notch, to AA+ from AAA.
- US economic data whetted risk appetite in the latter half of the week, throwing the greenback on the defensive. Across the pond, the ECB and BoE both left key interest rates unchanged, as expected. The BoE added another £25B to its quantitative easing program, after recently completing its £175B program. Sterling firmed up in the aftermath of the announcement, given many analysts were seeking a £50B increase. GBP/USD tested 1.6640 before consolidating in its post-decision range. In Frankfurt, ECB Chief Trichet said the bank would begin mopping up extra liquidity soon, and largely reiterated the usual barrage of rhetoric about rates being appropriate, signs of economic recovery emerging in 2009 and slow recovery arriving in 2010. The dollar managed to recover from session lows after Trichet's comment that a strong USD was in US's interest and reiterated the G7 position that excessive volatility was unwanted. Trichet did note that an orderly appreciation of emerging market currencies is a good way to correct global imbalances.
- The Reserve Bank of Australia continued to lead the charge toward the exit from easy money policy with its second consecutive 25 basis point rate hike. After the decision, the RBA raised its 2009 GDP forecast to 1.75% from 0.5% and 2010 GDP view to 3.25% from 2.25%. The Aussie trade balance data for the month of September was better than expected, but still registered an 18-month high deficit, cooling some of the expectations for additional rate hikes in coming months. More concerning, exports to China fell for the second consecutive month, while iron ore exports saw a three-month low.
- On Monday, the Chinese government reported the highest PMI figure since April 2008. Separately the World Bank lifted its outlook for China GDP for the current year by over 1%, forecasting 8.4% growth versus the prior estimate of 7.2%. That level is above the official Chinese target of 8.0% and more in line with recent target views out of Chinese economic research and planning bodies. In 2010, World Bank forecasts a slightly higher rate of growth at 8.7%, but noted that it was premature to implement a major policy tightening in China.
Week of 11/9/2009 thru 11/13/2009
The weekly calendar for Nov 9-13 can be accessed at the following address
Please read our disclaimer:
Trading has large potential rewards, but also large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the markets. The videos are neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures or options. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Rule 4.41 - Hypothetical or simulated performance results have certain limitations. Unlike an actual performance record, simulated results do not represent actual trading. Also, since the trades have not been executed, the results may have under-or-over compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profit or losses similar to those shown. Learn to trade futures forex stocks.
8:30am Oct Nonfarm Payrolls (last -263K), Oct Unemployment Rate (last 9.8%), Oct Manufacturing Payrolls (last -51K), Oct Average Hourly Earnings (last m/m 0.1%, y/y 2.5%)
10:00am Sept Wholesale Inventories (last -1.3%)
3:00pm Sept Consumer Credit (last -$12.0B)
Todays Headlines
10:32:27 AM
European Market Internals update at 10:30am ET
- FTSE100 volume 646.4M shares, about 11% lower than its 30 trading day moving average
- DAX30 volume 107.9M shares, about 20% higher than its 30 trading day moving average
- CAC40 volume 97M shares, about 10% lower than its 30 trading day moving average
10:39:49 AM
(MX) Mexico Fin Min Carstens: 2010 tax increase to exceed 1% of GDP; will increase revenues by MXN136B
***Reminder: Mexican Congress passed VAT increase back on Nov 1st
11:35:58 AM
(MX) Mexico Fin Min Carstens: Have not yet decided on oil hedges; hedges will be near price determined in the budget
- Fiscal changes should help protect Mexico's rating.
- The tax bill is taking a great deal of effort, given the slump.
1:22:46 PM
(RU) Russia Fin Min Kudrin: Not considering adding CNY to Russia's currency reserves; USD level is "acceptable"
- notes that if the USD declines; it will not affect the overall composition of reserves
4:30:38 PM
(US) Fed balance sheet assets $2.2T v $2.2T prior; M2 $35.8B v $26.4B prior, M1 -$10.7B v $12B prior
- M2 52 week change 6.7% v 6.9% prior, M1 15.7% v 16.1% prior
Please read our disclaimer:
Trading has large potential rewards, but also large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the markets. The videos are neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures or options. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Rule 4.41 - Hypothetical or simulated performance results have certain limitations. Unlike an actual performance record, simulated results do not represent actual trading. Also, since the trades have not been executed, the results may have under-or-over compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profit or losses similar to those shown. Learn to trade futures forex stocks.
European Market Internals update at 10:30am ET
- FTSE100 volume 683.3M shares, about 12% lower than its 30 trading day moving average
- DAX30 volume 102.6M shares, about 14% higher than its 30 trading day moving average
- CAC40 volume 114.0M shares, about 6% higher than its 30 trading day moving average
2:19:03 PM
*FOMC HOLDS RATES AT 0.25%; Cuts agency debt program to 'about' $175B from $200B; REITERATES RATES TO STAY EXCEPTIONALLY LOW FOR "EXTENDED PERIOD"
- Economic activity "has continued to pick up"
- Businesses still cutting back on fixed investment and staffing, yet at lower pace
3:21:10 PM
(US) House approves bill that moves up the effective date of new credit card rules
- note: House credit card bill still needs Senate approval.
3:31:43 PM
Market Internals update at 3:30pmET
- NYSE volume 980M shares, about 11% above its three-month average; advancers lead decliners by 1.9:1.
- NASDAQ volume 1.79B shares, about 4% below its three-month average; decliners lead advancers by 1.1:1.
- VIX index -6.25% to just over 27.00
3:21:10 PM
(US) House approves bill that moves up the effective date of new credit card rules
- note: House credit card bill still needs Senate approval.
Please read our disclaimer:
Trading has large potential rewards, but also large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the markets. The videos are neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures or options. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Rule 4.41 - Hypothetical or simulated performance results have certain limitations. Unlike an actual performance record, simulated results do not represent actual trading. Also, since the trades have not been executed, the results may have under-or-over compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profit or losses similar to those shown. Learn to trade futures forex stocks.
7:30am Oct Challenger Job Cuts y/y (last -30.2%)
8:15am Oct ADP Employment Change (last -254K)
10:00am Oct ISM Non-Manufacturing (last 50.9)
10:30am DoE Crude Oil/Gasoline/Distillate Inventories
2:15pm FOMC rate decision
Todays Headlines
10:31:10 AM
IMF: Spain, UK, Ireland, and Japan need the largest fiscal adjustments; it is too soon to tighten fiscal policy
- sees g-20 Govt debts to approach approx 118% of GDP by 2014; trends in fiscal situations are weaker than previously forecasted; sees debt interest doubling for advanced economies by 2014
- sees potential for Govt debt ratio leading to increased interest rates
11:15:38 AM
White House Budget Director Orszag (OMB): Sees little change in budget for 2010; current deficits are 'serious', unsustainable
- notes currently working on a variety of options for 2011 budget; high deficits can lead to higher interest rates and less investment
1:30:22 PM
ECB's Weber: Freefall in the economy has stopped; crisis "not yet over"
- notes that the 'friendly' liquidity measures will run their course unless they are extended
2:00:52 PM
US Treasury Official: Primary focus wil remain on growth and discussion of exit strategies; US understands fiscal house must be put in order
- G20 may discuss currencies; Finance ministers will continue work on sustainable recovery
2:02:54 PM
Market Internals update at 2:00pmET
- NYSE volume 770M shares, about 12% above its three-month average; advancers lead decliners by 1.4:1.
- NASDAQ volume 1.35B shares, about 7% below its three-month average; decliners lead advancers by 1.1:1.
- VIX index -2% to just over just above 29.00
Please read our disclaimer:
Trading has large potential rewards, but also large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the markets. The videos are neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures or options. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Rule 4.41 - Hypothetical or simulated performance results have certain limitations. Unlike an actual performance record, simulated results do not represent actual trading. Also, since the trades have not been executed, the results may have under-or-over compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profit or losses similar to those shown. Learn to trade futures forex stocks.
(US) Fed's Greenlee: Sees continued pressure on bank earnings, seeing CMBS defaults "heading higher"
- observing a 'sharp' deterioration in loan performance in portfolios; commercial real estate will lead to higher pressure on banking earnings
11:36:14 AM
Nomura Global Strategy discusses earnings season thus far (timing uncertain)
- In the US, based on the approximately 60% of companies that have reported so far, the positive-to-negative surprise ratio is 6.5x, almost double the surprise ratio in the last quarter.
- Though the beat has not been as strong on the top line at 1.1x, five out of 10 sectors have top-line growth higher than expectations, and three sectors have recorded positive growth y/y in revenues.
12:00:54 PM
Market Internals update at 12:00pmET
- NYSE volume 560M shares, about 15% above its three-month average; advancers lead decliners by 3.1:1.
- NASDAQ volume 995M shares, about 2% below its three-month average; advancers lead decliners by 1.4:1.
- VIX index -6.75% to just over just above 28.50
3:00:11 PM
US Treasury quarterly borrowing needs: To borrow $278B in Oct-Dec quarter v $486B prior estimate
- To borrow $478B v $425Be in Jan-March quarter
- Treasury borrowed $393B in July-Sept quarter v $406B prior estimate
- Cites the Supplementary Financing Program (SFP) for the reduced expectation in borrowing needs (The SFP is used to helps to fund the Federal Reserve's liquidity programs).
3:00:40 PM
(US) Fed's Tarullo: Extensive review of pay at large banks to begin shortly, banks will be asked present their current pay plans to the Fed
- Plans may invite enforcement action; either through non submission of plans or inadequate implementation
- Note that earlier today the Fed met with banking execs to discuss pay packages. Discussion included "the process for the reviews of incentive compensation arrangements at the large, complex banking organizations."
Please read our disclaimer:
Trading has large potential rewards, but also large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the markets. The videos are neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures or options. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Rule 4.41 - Hypothetical or simulated performance results have certain limitations. Unlike an actual performance record, simulated results do not represent actual trading. Also, since the trades have not been executed, the results may have under-or-over compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profit or losses similar to those shown. Learn to trade futures forex stocks.
SchoolOfTrade.com and United Business Servicing, Inc. are not registered investment or trading advisers. The services and content provided by SchoolOfTrade.com and United Business Servicing, Inc. are for educational purposes only, and should not be considered investment advice in any way. U.S. Government Required Disclaimer - Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Futures and Options trading have large potential rewards, but also large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the futures and options markets. Don't trade with money you can't afford to lose. This is neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures or options. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed on this web site. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results. cftc rule 4.41. These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or-over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown. Testimonials may not be representative of the experience of other clients. Testimonials are not a guarantee of future performance or success. No compensation is ever paid in exchange for any testimonials. Testimonials have not been independently verified.
