08:30 US November Initial Jobless Claims, Continuing Claims
10:00 US October Construction Spending
10:00 US November ISM Manufacturing 10:00 US November ISM Prices Paid
17:00 US November Total Vehicle Sales, Domestic Vehicle Sales
Todays Headlines
- US equities made some modest gains this morning after the open of trade, helped by some positive economic data. The November Consumer Confidence reading was much better than expected, with the expectations component looking especially strong. This comes after a very strong opening to the US holiday shopping season. In Europe, finance ministers are meeting under the auspices of the Eurogroup, following the reports that the EFSF leverage may be much lower than expected. Initial commentary has made it clear yet again nothing new has been agreed upon yet, with the German/Dutch camp still opposing much of what periphery members are trying to pull the negotiations toward. WTI crude futures are near yesterday's highs, briefly trading just shy of the $100 mark. US Treasury prices are modestly lower which has brought the 10-year yield back above 2%.
Please read our disclaimer:
Trading has large potential rewards, but also large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the markets. The videos are neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures or options. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Rule 4.41 - Hypothetical or simulated performance results have certain limitations. Unlike an actual performance record, simulated results do not represent actual trading. Also, since the trades have not been executed, the results may have under-or-over compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profit or losses similar to those shown. Learn to trade futures forex stocks.
“In answer to the question of why it happened, I offer the modest proposal that our Universe is simply one of those things which happen from time to time.”
07:00 US November MBA Mortgage Applications
07:30 US November Challenger Job Cuts
08:15 US November ADP Employment Change
08:30 Q3 Final US Nonfarm Productivity
08:30 Q3 Final US Unit Labor Costs
09:45 US November Chicago Purchasing Manager
10:00 US October Pending Home Sales
10:00 US November NAPM-Milwaukee
10:30 DoE Crude Oil/Gasoline/Distillate Inventories
14:00 US Fed's Beige Book
Todays Headlines
- US equities made some modest gains this morning after the open of trade, helped by some positive economic data. The November Consumer Confidence reading was much better than expected, with the expectations component looking especially strong. This comes after a very strong opening to the US holiday shopping season. In Europe, finance ministers are meeting under the auspices of the Eurogroup, following the reports that the EFSF leverage may be much lower than expected. Initial commentary has made it clear yet again nothing new has been agreed upon yet, with the German/Dutch camp still opposing much of what periphery members are trying to pull the negotiations toward. WTI crude futures are near yesterday's highs, briefly trading just shy of the $100 mark. US Treasury prices are modestly lower which has brought the 10-year yield back above 2%.
- In the equity story of the morning, American Airline parent AMR filed for Chapter 11 this morning in New York, making it the last major US carrier to undertake restructuring under the protection of bankruptcy in the last ten years. Recall that UAL did it in 2002, and Delta and Northwest both undertook this process back in 2005. AMR indicated that it has around $4.1B in cash and short-term investments, which will be more than sufficient to pay for operations and forestall the need for DIP financing. New CEO Thomas Horton said that the move was needed so that AMR could address its cost structure and labor costs. "Our very substantial cost disadvantage compared to our larger competitors, all of which restructured their costs and debt through Chapter 11, has become increasingly untenable," he said.- In deal news, shares of Yahoo are up about 3% after the New York Times reported that a Silver Lake and Microsoft consortium was looking to acquire a minority stake in the company. There has been repeated press speculation about both of these names acquiring stakes in Yahoo in recent weeks. In addition, AOL's CEO said the company is not currently interested in acquiring Yahoo assets. In its quest to gain approval for its acquisition of T-Mobile, AT&T was reported to be in talks with Leap Wireless to sell a large part of T-Mobile's customer accounts. In other news, shares of Corning are down more than 10% after lowering its Q4 Gorilla Glass sales forecast and warning that its Samsung Corning venture is not expected to reach its volume targets in Korea.
- The euro spiked higher and then came off its best levels against the major pairs in the aftermath of the European auction results earlier today. The spike in euro followed passable Italian results and talk that Greece's next bailout tranche would be released shortly, plus some chatter that progress was being made on EFSF facility. But news that the ECB was unable to fully drain bond purchases swatted down the rally. The central bank drained only €194.2B of the €203.5B in bond purchases. Dealers guessed that the inability to sterilize results meant that the ECB has reached the limit of the bond purchases it can sterilize and might have to halt the program for the time being. Some dealers suspected that the central bank was now prepared to move toward quantitative easing. EUR/USD was hovering around 1.3320 by the mid-New York morning, off more than 100 pips from its best levels.
Please read our disclaimer:
Trading has large potential rewards, but also large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the markets. The videos are neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures or options. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Rule 4.41 - Hypothetical or simulated performance results have certain limitations. Unlike an actual performance record, simulated results do not represent actual trading. Also, since the trades have not been executed, the results may have under-or-over compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profit or losses similar to those shown. Learn to trade futures forex stocks.
09:00 US September S&P/CS 20 City
09:00 US September S&P/CS Composite-20
09:00 US S&P/CaseShiller Home Price Ind 09:00 US Q3 S&P/Case-Shiller US HPI
10:00 US November Consumer Confidence
11:30 US Treasury's 4-week bill auction
16:30 API Crude Oil/Gasoline/Distillate Inventories
Todays Headlines
- Reports that France and Germany are working on yet another plan to bolster the euro zone is driving European and US equity markets higher off what many are viewing as at least temporarily oversold levels. After losing 4.7% last week, the S&P500 is up 3% in the early going. The new plans are anchored in plans for deeper economic integration and more central authority over national budgets, with official proposals to be released ahead of the key December 9th leaders' summit. Note that unconfirmed reports that the plan included a plan for AAA-rated euro zone members to launch common bonds were later denied. Also aiding sentiment is comments by leading German government advisor Bofinger, one of the so-called wisemen, who admitted in a weekend interview that the ECB needs to act as the euro zone's lender of last resort.
In addition, the long-running political stalemate in Belgium may have begun to be resolved, following S&P's sovereign downgrade of the nation. Shares of the largest US banks are leading the rally, with Morgan Stanley up 8%, Citi up 7% and Goldman, JPMorgan and BoA up 5%. Shares of French banks are popping more than 10% in some cases. In the US, there has been much positive press about the record black Friday sales, although some analysts have pointed out that retailers drove volume thanks to steep, and expensive, discounting. Spot gold has popped back above the $1,700 level, up around $30 on the session, while WTI crude is at its highest level in a week, trading above $98. Treasury prices are under pressure and the curve has steepened. The 10-year yield in the US is back above 2% while in Germany it remains near 2.3%.
The greenback took losses this morning on the rising tide of risk appetite, aided by the start of the holiday shopping season and optimism about Europe's latest plan of salvation. Month-end related USD-selling was noted as well. USD/JPY continued its drift towards the 78 handle as markets suspect the BoJ might take advantage of thin liqueidity conditions and perform anoth round of solo FX intervention. Sterling was off its best levels in the session as BoE's King commented in his annual report on inflation to the UK Parliament that the euro zone crisis was now threatening the UK economic recovery. King and other members of the MPC stated that UK would likely see flat growth over next six months. The BOE reiterated that inflation would dropped markedly in early 2012
Please read our disclaimer:
Trading has large potential rewards, but also large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the markets. The videos are neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures or options. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Rule 4.41 - Hypothetical or simulated performance results have certain limitations. Unlike an actual performance record, simulated results do not represent actual trading. Also, since the trades have not been executed, the results may have under-or-over compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profit or losses similar to those shown. Learn to trade futures forex stocks.
(GE) German Chancellor Merkel: Crisis solutions have not done the job yet, market confidence will not be regained overnight, extraordinary situations require extraordinary measures.
Markets are exaggerating differences and problems in the euro zone - There is not only one solution to the debt crisis
9:48:21 AM
Mining tax passes Australia parliament's lower house; upper house to vote on the measure in 2012
The final vote was 73-71. The legislation, supported by PM Gillard, would impose a 30% tax on iron ore and coal producers.
10:27:08 AM
(EU) CLS bank said to be evaluating various contingency scenarios in which the Euro region breaks up - financial press
- Notes that many of the banks that use CLS are making similar plans as they continuously plan for contingencies.
10:37:16 AM
Greece Fin Min Venizelos: ECB focusing on price stability has become a resulted in a deflation threat for the Euro zone.
- Europe evaluating new ECB roles and lending to the IMF (Note: Germany has frequently opposed an adjustment to the ECB role)
1:06:37 PM
(GE) Germany Fin Min Schaeuble: Market turmoil could last for months; treaty changes will help calm markets
- Comments that offering Euro bonds before any treaty is adjusted would only serve to calm markets temporarily
- Reminder: Yesterday Schaeuble noted the Dec 9 EU summit would provide a clear signal to markets
Please read our disclaimer:
Trading has large potential rewards, but also large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the markets. The videos are neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures or options. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Rule 4.41 - Hypothetical or simulated performance results have certain limitations. Unlike an actual performance record, simulated results do not represent actual trading. Also, since the trades have not been executed, the results may have under-or-over compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profit or losses similar to those shown. Learn to trade futures forex stocks.
07:45 ICSC/UBSW Chain Store Sales
08:30 US Q3 Preliminary GDP QoQ (Annualized)
08:30 US Q3 Preliminary Personal Consumption
08:30 US Q3 Preliminary GDP Price Index
08:30 US Q3 Preliminary Core PCE QoQ
08:55 Redbook Retail Sales
10:00 US November Richmond Fed Manufact. Index
11:30 US Treasury's 4-week bill auction
13:00 US Treasury's 5-yr note auction
14:00 US FOMC Minutes
15:00 US Treasury's Tsy inv. class auction data
16:30 API Crude Oil/Gasoline/Distillate Inventories
Todays Headlines
9:04:57 AM
(US) Super committee member Sen. Kerry (D-MA): Disagreements are over Bush tax cuts; everyone will face higher taxes if deal is not reached
- Notes that democrats want tax cuts for 99%, and feels millionaires do not need another tax cut
- Highlights willingness of Congress to bring the corporate tax rate to 25%; but if that is done, cannot have the bush tax cuts
8:43:15 AM
(GR) EU's Barroso: Greece situation is extremely serious; second financing package for Greece must be agreed upon by the end of the year
- Sixth tranche of Greek aid needs to be disbursed as soon as possible.
- Very confident Greece is committed to reforms
12:59:32 PM
(EU) EU plans to implement additional control over budgets at countries receiving aid is facing difficulties - financial press draft
- Plans involved bringing struggling counties under oversight until 3/4 of their aid has been repaid
- Measures being explored could include obliging countries to request aid if needed and having those countries consider austerity
- Goals are to remove the extended period of uncertainty from the markets
1:55:21 PM
(US) Fed's Lockhart: Productivity gains helped keep employment down; sees GDP at 3% in Q4
- Business investment has been strong.
- Public sector remains the main element in the economy where growth is negative.
- Inflation pressures trending lower after excessive rise.
Please read our disclaimer:
Trading has large potential rewards, but also large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the markets. The videos are neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures or options. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Rule 4.41 - Hypothetical or simulated performance results have certain limitations. Unlike an actual performance record, simulated results do not represent actual trading. Also, since the trades have not been executed, the results may have under-or-over compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profit or losses similar to those shown. Learn to trade futures forex stocks.
“Happiness in intelligent people is the rarest thing I know.”
Market Week Wrap-Up
- Trading in US equity markets has been choppy but up slightly this morning after two sessions of worrying declines on events in Europe. Volume remains lackluster in the early going despite today being options expiration. Yields on Italian and Spanish 10-year debt have stabilized around 6.6% as the ECB continues to snap up bonds. Italian PM Monti's new government has past its first test, sailing through a procedural vote of confidence, while the press continues to run headlines that some headway is being made on allowing the ECB to channel bailout funding for euro zone members through the IMF in order to overcome legal roadblocks, although the Germans have not said yes as of yet. Spot gold has ticked up a bit after yesterday's big sell-off, to $1,726, helping other precious and industrial metals make some modest gains. Interestingly crude is around $3.50 off yesterday's highs, dropping below the $99 handle. Several reports suggesting the Germans are moving in the direction of letting the ECB be more aggressive in providing a backstop for sovereign bond markets has aided risk appetite flows in the bond markets. The bund future traded down a point while the US 10-year is slightly lower but continues to yield roughly 2%.
- Shares of consumer staples name Heinz are down nearly 3% this morning. The firm met expectations in its Q2, however investors are disappointed that it has reiterated weak profit forecast for FY12. High-end apparel name Ann Inc (formerly AnnTaylor) met expectations in its Q3 report, and warned that the Q4 environment is likely to be highly promotional. Salesforce.com nudged its FY12 guidance a bit higher and met expectations in its Q4. On the conference call, the CEO said the business is seeing strong growth in every global region. Semi manufacturer Marvell is surging despite a relatively tepid earnings report. Note that the firm laid out its first estimates for the impact of the Thailand floods, and investors are apparently pleased that the amounts were not greater. Among the biggest gainers is Dolby Labs; shares of DLB are up 13%. In other news, Nike is up slightly on a quarterly dividend increase.
- EUR/USD tested above the 1.36 handle on the ECB/IMF lending story, but come off US session highs after the German Foreign Ministry was said to have confirmed details of a leaked memo that it was considering permitting more euro zone orderly defaults beyond Greece. The Swiss government reiterated once again that it was closely watching the franc closely and warned that it might take additional measures to increase economic activity. The Canadian Dollar was firmer in the wake of hotter inflation numbers for the month of October.
Week of 11/21/2011 thru 11/25/2011
Monday, November 21, 2011
Economic
08:30 US October Chicago Fed NAI
10:00 US October Existing home sales
11:00 US Treasury's 4-week bill announcement
11:30 US Treasury's 3- and 6-month bill auction
13:00 US Treasury's 2-yr note auction
Tuesday, November 22, 2011
Economic
07:45 ICSC/UBSW Chain Store Sales
08:30 US Q3 advance GDP QoQ (Annualized)
08:30 US Q3 advance Personal Consumption
08:30 US Q3 advance GDP Price Index
08:30 US Q3 advance Core PCE QoQ
08:55 Redbook Retail Sales
10:00 US November Richmond Fed Manufact. Index
11:30 US Treasury's 4-week bill auction
13:00 US Treasury's 5-yr note auction
14:00 US FOMC Minutes
15:00 US Treasury's Tsy inv. class auction data
16:30 API Crude Oil/Gasoline/Distillate Inventories
Wednesday, November 23, 2011
Economic
07:00 US November MBA Mortgage Applications
08:30 US October Durable Goods Orders
08:30 US October Durables Ex Transportation
08:30 US October Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air
08:30 US October Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air
08:30 US October Personal Income, Personal Spending
08:30 US October PCE Deflator
08:30 US November Initial Jobless Claims, Continuing Claims
09:55 US November Final U. of Michigan Confidence
10:30 DoE Crude Oil/Gasoline/Distillate Inventories
11:00 US Treasury's 3- and 6-month bill announcement
11:00 US November Kansas City Fed index
12:00 DoE Natural Gas Inventories
13:00 US Treasury's 7-yr note auction
Please read our disclaimer:
Trading has large potential rewards, but also large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the markets. The videos are neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures or options. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Rule 4.41 - Hypothetical or simulated performance results have certain limitations. Unlike an actual performance record, simulated results do not represent actual trading. Also, since the trades have not been executed, the results may have under-or-over compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profit or losses similar to those shown. Learn to trade futures forex stocks.
(SP) Spain Fin Min Salgado: Spain is not in bailout danger zone; 2011 interest costs to be below budget forecasts
- Says Europe is suffering from systemic attack on sovereign debt.
- Reiterates view that Euro is not in danger but Europe is slow in implementing decisions taken at recent EU Leader Summits
8:01:41 AM
(TH) Credit Suisse downgrades Thailand bank sector to Market Weight from Overweight
- Firm fears that analysts might underestimate the hit to margins from post-flood loan restructuring, national service lending and SFI competition. Firm is worried that too much emphasis has been placed by some on a flood reconstruction lending boom.
9:47:51 AM
(EU) Germany said to be key resistant party to talk of ECB lending to the IMF; as mentioned in earlier reports
- An IMF official says that the idea of ECB lending to the IMF came up at the G20 meeting in Cannes and could come up again, but that there are no current discussions about the lending scheme.
12:50:25 PM
(US) Fed's Dudley: Policymakers are not out of ammunition; could make sense to purchase mortgage debt
- Latest data is encouraging, activity has strengthened to some degree
- Housing prices trajectory is concerning, credit availability is improving
- Not taking very much comfort from recent improved economic data
Please read our disclaimer:
Trading has large potential rewards, but also large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the markets. The videos are neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures or options. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Rule 4.41 - Hypothetical or simulated performance results have certain limitations. Unlike an actual performance record, simulated results do not represent actual trading. Also, since the trades have not been executed, the results may have under-or-over compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profit or losses similar to those shown. Learn to trade futures forex stocks.
08:30 US October Housing Starts
08:30 US October Building Permits
08:30 US November Initial Jobless Claims
08:30 US November Continuing Claims
10:00 US November Philadelphia Fed.
10:30 DoE Natural Gas Inventories
11:00 US Treasury's note announcement
13:00 US Treasury's 10-yr TIPS (r) auction
Todays Headlines
8:50:30 AM
(GE) German Fin Min Schaeuble: Contagion risks remain for all of Euro region; US Federal Reserve is not to be used as a model for the ECB
- Using the ECB to resolve the debt crisis would create more problems in long run and would the incorrect solution
9:33:22 AM
(IT) Italy Debt Agency (Tesoro) chief Cannata: Italy has held up well during crisis but not thrilled by recent rise in Italian bond yields
- Crisis is one of all of Europe and not just Italy. Says Italy cannot be comparred to Greece.
- The AAA sovereign rated countries are showing signs of contagion; Widening French spreads are a concern.
- EU needs to make more couragous decisions.
10:03:34 AM
(PO) Portugal Fin Min Gaspar: Troika performance review went well, all criteria for deficit and debt limits have been met
- EU and IMF will recommend the next tranche be paid
- Follow up 12:00ET: EU commission report notes that growth in Portugal is better than forecast; a 2012 recession likely to be more pronounced at -3%
11:48:55 AM
(US) Fed's Rosengren: Fiscal issues in the US have limited the ability for policy response; inflation is restrained for the most part
- Notes that investors are not positioning themselves towards higher inflation
- Remarks that calls on more oversight of Fed policy could be seeking to politicize monetary policy
- Highlights that the Fed's recent policies some considered as 'printing money' have not resulted in significant inflation
Please read our disclaimer:
Trading has large potential rewards, but also large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the markets. The videos are neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures or options. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Rule 4.41 - Hypothetical or simulated performance results have certain limitations. Unlike an actual performance record, simulated results do not represent actual trading. Also, since the trades have not been executed, the results may have under-or-over compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profit or losses similar to those shown. Learn to trade futures forex stocks.
00:00 US Architecture billings index
07:00 US November MBA Mortgage Applications
08:30 US October Consumer Price Index
08:30 US October CPI Ex Food & Energy
08:30 US October CPI Core Index SA
09:00 US September Net Long-term TIC Flows
09:15 US October Industrial Production
09:15 US October Capacity Utilization
10:00 US November NAHB Housing Market Index
10:30 DoE Crude Oil/Gasoline/Distillate Inventories
Todays Headlines
6:36:47 AM
(GR) Greece New Democracy (opposition) leader Samaras: Revenue for the Jan-Oct period was -4.4% y/y; would not vote in favor of additional austerity measures - addressing parliament
- Plans to support any measures already approves; will consider changes where necessary following elections.
- Supports targets to eliminate wasteful spending, cut debt and reduce the deficit; does not support policies that would prevent economic recovery.
- 2013/14 budget measures to be defined by June.
7:44:25 AM
Update: Nomura downgrades U.S. Media Sector to Neutral from Bullish
- Firm believes the sector's positive earnings revisions are set to slow in 2012.
- CBS cut to Neutral from Buy
- Firm continues to recommend Disney, News Corp, and Viacom as Buys in the group.
11:02:20 AM
NY Fed: Purchased $2.54B in outright coupon purchase; dealers submitted $6.41B for consideration (bid to cover 2.52)
- Heaviest purchase was $448M in the 02/15/36 maturity (earliest dated)
- Purchased maturities dated 02/15/2036 - 08/15/2041
11:43:54 AM
(EU) Germany Fin Min Schaeble: Possible that implementation of the ESM will not be accelerated to 2013
- It does make sense to activate the ESM before its scheduled mid 2013 date, EU lisbon treaty needs changes before the end of 2012
Please read our disclaimer:
Trading has large potential rewards, but also large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the markets. The videos are neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures or options. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Rule 4.41 - Hypothetical or simulated performance results have certain limitations. Unlike an actual performance record, simulated results do not represent actual trading. Also, since the trades have not been executed, the results may have under-or-over compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profit or losses similar to those shown. Learn to trade futures forex stocks.
“A compromise is the art of dividing a cake in such a way that everyone believes he has the biggest piece.”
Market Week Wrap-Up
- US equity indices are up sharply this morning another burst of risk appetite that has followed the formal appointment of the new Greek government, including Papademos as PM, and the passage of austerity measures by the Italian Senate. Note that the latter development sets Italian PM Berlusconi up for resignation on the lower house's passage of the austerity bill, which is expected for Sunday. Note that US bond markets are closed for Veterans' Day while volumes in equity markets are well below average, helping to further exaggerate moves to the upside. On the data front, the preliminary November U of Michigan Confidence reading was relatively strong, adding more optimism to the picture. Crude is another big beneficiary this morning, with the front-month WTI contract poised to break above $99 at its highest level since early August. Treasury futures are lower along with the dollar as money finds it way to risk assets.
- Disney reported a very strong increase in net income in its Q4, topping expectations. The firm saw a very strong double-digit y/y increases in consumer products and parks revenue. DIS is up more than 7% in the early going. Retailer Nordstrom disappointed investors after it merely met expectations and failed to increase its FY11 outlook. Chip maker NVIDIA's quarterly profit widely beat expectations. Executives were very positive about the competitive potential of the firm's new Tegra 3 processor in the mobile phone space. Hombuilder DR Horton missed both top- and bottom-line expectations slightly, although its sales orders, backlog and closing metrics showed strong growth. JWN and DHI are down 1%. NVDA is flat.
- The euro continued to climb during the New York morning on optimism about the new government in Greece and the Italian Senate passage of austerity measures, in addition to the Portugal Parliament approving its 2012 draft budget. Peripheral spreads tightened as European markets stabilized. IMF commented on the G20 and stated that global demand rebalancing had stalled. The IMF sees an elevated risk of advanced economies falling back into recession.
Please read our disclaimer:
Trading has large potential rewards, but also large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the markets. The videos are neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures or options. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Rule 4.41 - Hypothetical or simulated performance results have certain limitations. Unlike an actual performance record, simulated results do not represent actual trading. Also, since the trades have not been executed, the results may have under-or-over compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profit or losses similar to those shown. Learn to trade futures forex stocks.
09:55 US Nov prelim University of Michigan Confidence
Todays Headlines
8:24:32 AM
(FI) S&P affirms Finland sovereign ratings at 'AAA'; stable Outlook
- Finland's competitive economy and the government's prudent macroeconomic policy record support a strong fiscal balance sheet and high levels of prosperity.
- The stable outlook reflects our expectation of the country's continued extremely strong credit standing.
8:30:03 AM
*(US) INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS: 390K V 400KE (lowest since early April) CONTINUING CLAIMS: 3.62M V 3.68ME
- Prior Initial Claims revised higher from 397K to 400K
- Prior Continuing Claims higher from 3.683M to 3.71M
9:58:14 AM
(US) White House advisor Lew: Too early to call the Congressional 'supercommittee' a failure, although there are reasons for concern
- The supercommittee is working through its issues; taxes must be addressed
- Feasible that the supercommittee could cut $500B out of the defense budget.(over ten year period)
- There are possible movements on key issues, sees $4T agreement as sending a strong signal to markets
12:00:27 PM
(US) Fed's Bernanke: Inflation remains close to target near 2%; Fed is focusing on job creation
- Notes that Fed's bond purchases are not the same as Govt spending as it sells bonds back or lets them mature
- Calls on other Govt agencies to make strong efforts to help prosperity, including adjustments to spending and tax policy
Please read our disclaimer:
Trading has large potential rewards, but also large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the markets. The videos are neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures or options. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Rule 4.41 - Hypothetical or simulated performance results have certain limitations. Unlike an actual performance record, simulated results do not represent actual trading. Also, since the trades have not been executed, the results may have under-or-over compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profit or losses similar to those shown. Learn to trade futures forex stocks.
08:30 Canada Sept New Housing Price Index
10:00 US Sept Wholesale Inventories
10:30 DoE Crude Oil/Gasoline/Distillate Inventories
13:00 US Treasury's 10-year note auction
Todays Headlines
8:31:01 AM
OPEC annual report: Raises Global oil demand view By 1.9M bpd through 2015
but sees more downside risk for economy
- Economic recovery is fragile and a global recession cannot be ruled out
- Forecasts Oil price at $85-95 per barrel for the decade
- Expects spare capacity at 8M bpd over the medium term (4M capacity in 2011)
8:40:34 AM
(SZ) SNB's Hildebrand: Financial crisis has released devastating forces; prices stability focused monetary policy does not always guarantee financial stability
- Says that with its actions the SNB has taken enormous risk on its balance sheet.
- Sees latitude for SNB to hone its stability arsenal tools for dealing with macro risks, and to create new tools.
- Interest rates may remain artificially low in many nations for a long time.
10:15:59 AM
(EU) ECB's Weidmann: Burden of fighting crisis should not move towards central banks; ECB should not leverage the EFSF
- Notes that it should be prohibited from monetary financing as it disincentivises proper fiscal policy and essentially becomes the same as issuance of Eurobonds
- Calls on Germany to consolidate budget instead of expending extra funds
11:52:55 AM
(US) Dept of Interior issues drilling lease plans for 2012-2017
- 15 offshore oil lease sales to take place
- 3 sales in Alaska; 12 sales in the Gulf of Mexico
Please read our disclaimer:
Trading has large potential rewards, but also large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the markets. The videos are neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures or options. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Rule 4.41 - Hypothetical or simulated performance results have certain limitations. Unlike an actual performance record, simulated results do not represent actual trading. Also, since the trades have not been executed, the results may have under-or-over compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profit or losses similar to those shown. Learn to trade futures forex stocks.
“A compromise is the art of dividing a cake in such a way that everyone believes he has the biggest piece.”
Market Week Wrap-Up
- European and US equity markets traded lower into the US premarket and through the first hour of trade following a mixed Oct payrolls report and continued handwringing about Greece. The government of PM Papandreou is hanging by a string in the lead up to the confidence vote later today and it remains unknown whether he has the votes he needs to stay in power and, maybe more importantly, whether a unity government can be formed regardless of how the parliament votes this evening. Italian bond yields are surging (and the spread over bunds remains dangerously close to 450bps which could trigger damaging increases in clearing margin requirements for Italian debt) and comments by PM Berlusconi, who seems to think everything in Rome is just fine and claims he turned down additional IMF funding at the G20 meeting. The draft statement out of the G20 has widely been panned as weak and inadequate. In the US, both the headline payrolls number and the private payrolls figure missed expectations, although analysts hopefully point to the fact that the prior month figures were hiked substantially, while the August figure benefitted from a big benchmark revision. Spot gold is sustaining yesterday's gains, trading above $1,750. Treasury prices are benefiting from safe haven flows once again but the gains are modest. The US benchmark 10-year yield is holding just above 2%.
- AIG lost more than $4B in its Q3, as the firm's aircraft leasing unit took a huge impairment charge, coped with natural disaster payouts and saw the value of its stake in Asian insurer AIA decline. Recall that this is the 10th time in the 15 quarters since 2008 that AIG has lost at least $1B in a quarter. Starbucks had a good quarter, with solid profit growth slightly ahead of expectations. Starbuck's CEO said that the firm is seeing a great deal of strength in the domestic US business, where comps were up a whopping 10% in the quarter. Refiner Sunoco crushed revenue expectations, although the firm took a huge loss related to the sale of two East Coast refineries. Solar name Sunpower's profits blew away expectations, however the firm slashed its guidance for FY11. In addition, it said it would reorganize operations and replace its CFO. Online deals site Groupon's IPO opened for trade at $20, above the recent pricing range of $16-18. Engineering giant Fluor's quarterly profits disappointed investors and the firm failed to raise its full-year view to meet expectations. And finally, battery maker A123 Systems trimmed its FY11 outlook due to an unexpected decline in orders from partner Fisker Automotive.
- The greenback rebounded from the weaker non-farm payroll data as upward revisions to August and September data helped sentiment. The birth-death component of +102K did not provide too much confidence as it hinted that the payrolls would have been a negative number without the plug. Risk aversion sentiment picked up momentum after German Chancellor Merkel stated in her post G20 press conference that the members failed to agree on IMF resources but did agree on action plan for boosting economic growth. The G20 was to set framework for IMF cooperation on EFSF facility and that potential investors were awaiting details thus hardly any countries had stated that they would participate in EFSF. EUR/USD was below 1.3740 by the mid-NY morning after testing 1.3869 after the initial release of the Oct Non-Farm payroll data. Lingering concerns of the AAA rated European sovereigns continued to linger with Austria being the most recently mentioned.
Week of 10/31/2011 thru 11/4/2011
Monday, November 07, 2011
Economic
11:30 US Treasury's 3- and 6-month bill auction
15:00 US Sept Consumer Credit
Tuesday, November 08, 2011
Economic
07:30 US Oct NFIB Small Business Optimism
08:15 Canada Oct Housing Starts
10:00 US Nov IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism
11:30 US Treasury's 4-week bill auction
13:00 US Treasury's 3-year note auction
16:30 API Crude Oil/Gasoline/Distillate Inventories
Wednesday, November 09, 2011
Economic
08:30 Canada Sept New Housing Price Index
10:00 US Sept Wholesale Inventories
10:30 DoE Crude Oil/Gasoline/Distillate Inventories
13:00 US Treasury's 10-year note auction
Thursday, November 10, 2011
Economic
08:30 US Oct Trade Balance, Oct Import Price Index, Canada Sept International Trade, Initial Jobless claims, Continuing Claims
10:30 DoE Natural Gas Inventories
11:00 US Treasury's 10-year TIPS announcement
13:00 US Treasury's 30-year note auction
14:00 US Oct Monthly Budget Statement
Friday, November 11, 2011
Economic
09:55 US Nov prelim University of Michigan Confidence
Please read our disclaimer:
Trading has large potential rewards, but also large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the markets. The videos are neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures or options. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Rule 4.41 - Hypothetical or simulated performance results have certain limitations. Unlike an actual performance record, simulated results do not represent actual trading. Also, since the trades have not been executed, the results may have under-or-over compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profit or losses similar to those shown. Learn to trade futures forex stocks.
07:00 Canada Oct Unemployment Rate
08:30 US Oct Non-Farm Payrolls, Manufacturing Payrolls, Private Payrolls, Unemployment Rate, Canada Sept Building Permits
10:00 Canada Oct Ivey PMI
Todays Headlines
9:33:41 AM
(EU) ECB President Draghi: Inflation is likely to stay above 2% in the months ahead and then decline further in the longer term, underlying pace of monetary expansion remains moderate - perpared remarks
- Inflation should remain in line with price stability after today's decision.
- Financial market tension could spill over into the broader economy, could dampen economic growth in the second half of 2011 and thereafter.
- Likely to see significant downward revisions to 2012 economic growth forecasts.
9:49:02 AM
(EU) ECB President Draghi: Today's decision was unanimous; closely monitoring Greece situation, confident that measures will be implemented - Q&A
- Weakening aggregate demand, worsening PMI data and weaking ecomomic data were the reasons for today's decision.
- Reiterates that bond buying program is limited, temporary and focused on monetary policy transmission; Will not say what the limit of the program is nor are purchases seen as a risk to the balance sheet
10:49:20 AM
(GR) Greece PM Papandreou: Would never place euro zone membership question to a referendum; will speak to opposition leader Samaras personally to work out a way forward
- If can cooperate in a unity Govt, no referendum will be needed.
- Pleased that the opposition supports the Oct bailout agreement.
- if forced into elections now will lead to bankruptcy
Please read our disclaimer:
Trading has large potential rewards, but also large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the markets. The videos are neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures or options. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Rule 4.41 - Hypothetical or simulated performance results have certain limitations. Unlike an actual performance record, simulated results do not represent actual trading. Also, since the trades have not been executed, the results may have under-or-over compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profit or losses similar to those shown. Learn to trade futures forex stocks.
08:30 US Q3 prelim Non-Farm Productivity, Q3 prelim Unit Labor Costs, Initial Jobless Claims, Continuing Claims
10:00 US Oct ISM Non-Manufacturing, Sept Factory Orders
10:30 DoE Natural Gas Inventories
Todays Headlines
7:29:55 AM
(IT) Bank of Italy: Denies earlier reports that it would undertake a bond swap with banks
**Reminder: Bank of Italy (BOI) were said to be preparing an emergency operation to swap Italian government bonds held by the nation's banks in exchange for a pledge by the lenders to buy more debt at longer maturities (refer to our 3:45 ET headline)
8:54:36 AM
Preview: (US) Treasury's quarterly refunding announcement expected at 9ET
- Total coupon package likely unchanged at $72B which will include $32B 3-year, $24B 10-year notes and $16B 30-year bonds.
- Also look for more guidance on TIPS through 2012 which will likely include increases in sizes of individual auctions.
2011 10:16:42 AM
(GR) EU and IMF pressuring Greece to hold referendum as soon as possible; Greece said to be looking at dates for referendum on either Dec 4th or Dec 11th
- Greece said to have enough money to last through November before more funding will be required.
12:17:00 PM
*(GR) EUROPE SAID TO BE CONSIDERING A FORCED HAIRCUT FOR BONDHOLDERS; GREECE MAY ADJUST LEGISLATION TO ALLOW IMPOSITION OF CONDITIONS ON BONDHOLDERS - FINANCIAL PRESS
- Officials said to be less concerned about the implications of losing the 'voluntary' nature of private sector participation
Please read our disclaimer:
Trading has large potential rewards, but also large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the markets. The videos are neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures or options. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Rule 4.41 - Hypothetical or simulated performance results have certain limitations. Unlike an actual performance record, simulated results do not represent actual trading. Also, since the trades have not been executed, the results may have under-or-over compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profit or losses similar to those shown. Learn to trade futures forex stocks.
07:30 US Oct Challenger Job Cuts
08:15 US Oct ADP Employment Change
10:30 DoE Crude Oil/Gasoline/Distillate Inventories
12:30 Fed rate decision
14:15 Fed Chairman Bernanke press conference
Todays Headlines
8:50:41 AM
(GR) TTN Analysis: Proposed Greek confidence vote and national referendum throws European markets into chaos
- Yesterday afternoon the Greek PM Papandreou announced plans to hold a referendum on Greece's participation in the euro zone bailout mechanism and submit to a vote of confidence in parliament.
-The announcement has thrown Europe into chaos and driven serious market declines, as many rightly fear that a collapse of the government or a negative referendum vote would mostly likely result in Greece leaving the euro zone, with predictable consequences.
8:42:20 AM
(US) Key technical levels being tested in a variety of assets on renewed round of European induced risk aversion
- US benchmark 10-year is back at 2% while the 30-year is testing 3%
- Oil is retesting $90 on the downside
8:55:31 AM
Wells Fargo indicates truck dealer channel checks indicate Oct orders were likely much stronger than Sept orders
- Firm expects October orders of 28,000-31,000 vs. September's 23,627 units--ACT preliminary orders expected to be reported Wednesday, November 2
Please read our disclaimer:
Trading has large potential rewards, but also large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the markets. The videos are neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures or options. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Rule 4.41 - Hypothetical or simulated performance results have certain limitations. Unlike an actual performance record, simulated results do not represent actual trading. Also, since the trades have not been executed, the results may have under-or-over compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profit or losses similar to those shown. Learn to trade futures forex stocks.
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