“When people are free to do as they please, they usually imitate each other.”
Market Week Wrap-Up
- European indices are heading higher late in the euro session, helping start US trading off on a positive note.
- As of yet no denial of the story has emerged from Beijing, and traders should be keenly aware that this story has a tendency to reemerge whenever markets are feeling a little blue (only to be denied yet again by the Chinese press).
- The main analog chip makers slashed guidance in releases out yesterday evening and this morning.
- A diverse range of other firms adjusted their full-year outlook or offered a first look at 2012.
- The euro was off its prior New York morning highs as markets continued to digest developments out of the EU leaders' summit.
Week of 12/12/2011 thru 12/16/2011
Monday, December 12, 2011
Economic BR>
09:00 Mexico Oct Industrial Production
09:00 Mexico Sep Gross Fixed Investment
10:15 US Fed TIPS Purchases11:00 US Treasury's 4 Week Bill Announcement
11:30 US Treasury's 3 and 6 Month Bill Auction
13:00 US Treasury's 3 Year Note Auction14:00 US Nov Monthly Budget Statement
Tuesday, December 13, 2011
Economic BR>
06:00 Brazil Oct Retail Sales
07:30 US Nov NFIB Small Business Optimism
08:30 US Nov Retail Sales
10:00 US Dec IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism
10:00 US Oct JOLTs Job Openings
Wednesday, December 14, 2011
Economic BR>
07:00 US MBA Mortgage Applications
08:30 Canada Nov Leading Indicators
08:30 Canada Oct Manufacturing Sales
08:30 US Nov Import Price Index
Thursday, December 15, 2011
Economic BR>
05:00 Brazil Dec FGV Inflation IGP
1008:30 US Nov Producer Price Index
08:30 US Dec NY Empire State Manufacturing Index
08:30 US Initial/Continuing Jobless Claims
08:30 Canada Q3 Capacity Utilization
Friday, December 16, 2011
Economic BR>
05:00 Brazil FGV CPI IPC-S
08:30 US Nov Consumer Price Index
08:30 Canada Oct Foreign Investment in Canadian securities
08:30 Canada Oct Canadian Investment in Foreign Securities
Please read our disclaimer:
Trading has large potential rewards, but also large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the markets. The videos are neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures or options. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Rule 4.41 - Hypothetical or simulated performance results have certain limitations. Unlike an actual performance record, simulated results do not represent actual trading. Also, since the trades have not been executed, the results may have under-or-over compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profit or losses similar to those shown. Learn to trade futures forex stocks.
02:00 Brazil FIPE CPI – Weekly
05:00 Brazil FGV Preview Inflation IGP-M0
8:30 US Oct Trade Balance
08:30 Canada Q3 Labor Productivity
Todays Headlines
- The ECB took center stage in the New York premarket, and though the central bank did cut rates and announce new emergency liquidity measures including eased collateral requirements, investors used the news and more specifically the accompanying press conference as an excuse to offload risk heading into the European leaders summit. Draghi said little to indicate a shifting in the ECB's stance on purchasing sovereign debt, or suggest the idea that ultimately the institution could be forced to serve as a lender of last resort. Equity and commodity markets were holding near unchanged or slightly higher while Bund and US Treasury prices were lower along with the Dollar heading into the ECB press conference. Trends have reversed course since and intensified. The US 10-year yield has fallen back below 2% for the first time this month while the major indices on both sides of the pond are making fresh session lows. Dr. copper has slid 2% back below $3.50, Jan WTI is under $100 again at $98.25, Gold is off more than $35 near $1700 and the Greenback has firmed pushing the Dollar index back to 79. Peripheral spreads in Europe have blown out sending the Italian 10-year yield back above 6.4%, up 45 basis points on the day.
- IBM announced it has made an offer for DemandTec valued at less than half a billion dollars. The acquisition is expected to extend IBM's Smarter Commerce initiative by adding cloud-based price, promotion and other merchandising and marketing analytics to help companies better define the best price points and product mix based on customer buying trends. - McDonalds's reported supersized November SSS sales results that easily topped analyst expectations. The numbers were strong across all geographies pushing shares up to fresh lifetime highs yet again.
- The price action picked up during the NY morning as the European central banks rendered rate decisions. The ECB did cut its main refi rate by another 25bps (as expected). The ECB press conference began with the EUR/USD pair moving higher to test 1.3459 after the ECB said it would implement three-year refi operation and ease collateral rules. However, the ECB again only focused on ways to assist the region's banking sector and reiterated its viewpoint that it would not be a lender of last resort to governments. The EUR/USD tested 1.3310 after Draghi's commented that the EU treaty did not permit monetary financing of governments. The ECB again indicated that they were waiting on the EU Leaders to set out a concrete game plan at its pivotal Summit that begins later today.
Please read our disclaimer:
Trading has large potential rewards, but also large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the markets. The videos are neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures or options. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Rule 4.41 - Hypothetical or simulated performance results have certain limitations. Unlike an actual performance record, simulated results do not represent actual trading. Also, since the trades have not been executed, the results may have under-or-over compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profit or losses similar to those shown. Learn to trade futures forex stocks.
06:00 Brazil Q3 Gross Domestic Product
07:45 ICSC/UBSW Chain Store Sales.
08:30 Canada Oct Building Permits 08:55 Redbook Retail Sales.
09:00 Canada BoC Interest Rate Decision
10:00 Canada Nov Ivey Purchasing Managers Index
Todays Headlines
- US equities are taking their cue from gains in the Asian and European session, heading higher despite a number of poor economic data numbers. Optimism about developments in Europe ahead of the key summit later this week is apparently driving risk-on trades, with yields on both Italian and Spanish 10-year debt below 6% for the first time in weeks. After Italy rolled out even harsher austerity measures, including an additional €10B in savings, French President Sarkozy and German Chancellor Merkel provided an outline of their proposals for the European summit. Merkozy's announcement was short on concrete details, although both took pains to highlight that they would demand changes to euro zone treaties (and possibly overall European Union treaties).
-On the data front, there were plenty of reasons for concern: European Nov PMI data was uniformly in contraction territory, the amount of money parked overnight at the ECB continues to increase, hitting €333B, while in the US the Nov ISM non-manufacturing index had its lowest reading since January of 2010. WTI crude is around two-week highs at $102, while spot gold is holding up so far at $1,740. The US 10-year is higher by 6 basis points inching back towards 2.1%.- With the December quarter earnings season fast approaching, US names have begun offering pre-earnings guidance calls. Metlife warned its Q4 profits would be lower than expected and gave a soft preliminary view of its FY12 outlook. Yum Brands' FY11 guidance out this morning was right in line with consensus estimates, however its initial FY12 outlook fell short of expectations.
-ITC Holdings offered an in-line view on FY12 earnings. In deal news, SAP America struck a deal to acquire human resources solutions developer SuccessFactors for $40/share cash, in a deal valued at $3.4B. SAP expects to close deal in January, with no go-shop period. - The euro has made up the steep losses seen during Friday's session so far this morning, as overall risk appetite funnels money into the single currency. Earlier in the European session, newly installed Italian PM Monti rolled out harsh new austerity measures, including an additional €10B in cuts. Then just before the US open, Sarkozy and Merkel rolled out their proposals. With the dollar index trending lower, commodity currencies are gaining in strength, with AUD/USD testing resistance at 1.0300. After closing below 1.3370, EUR/USD has marched higher to find some resistance around 1.3480.
Please read our disclaimer:
Trading has large potential rewards, but also large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the markets. The videos are neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures or options. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Rule 4.41 - Hypothetical or simulated performance results have certain limitations. Unlike an actual performance record, simulated results do not represent actual trading. Also, since the trades have not been executed, the results may have under-or-over compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profit or losses similar to those shown. Learn to trade futures forex stocks.
“Gratitude is merely the secret hope of further favors.”
Market Week Wrap-Up
- This morning's November jobs report is front and center this morning, with the data helping to hold up the equity gains seen all week.
-While this is not a shining example of an improved job market, there was also some hope taken away from the higher back-month revisions to the non-farm and private payrolls numbers.
-Similar speculation was roundly denied last week by both the IMF and the ECB.
- Research in Motion trimmed its Q3 outlook this morning and said it no longer expects to meet its FY12 guidance.
-Apparently overall industry supply has turned out to be more constrained by the Thailand flooding than earlier believed.
- With the jobs data sustaining risk appetite, the euro was strengthening heading into the US open.
Week of 12/5/2011 thru 12/9/2011
Monday, December 05, 2011
Economic BR>
08:30 US October Durable Goods Orders
09:00 Mexico November Consumer Confidence
10:00 US November ISM Non-Manufacturing
10:00 US October Factory Orders
11:00 US Treasury's
Tuesday, December 06, 2011
Economic BR>
06:00 Brazil Q3 Gross Domestic Product
07:45 ICSC/UBSW Chain Store Sales.
08:30 Canada Oct Building Permits
08:55 Redbook Retail Sales.
09:00 Canada BoC Interest Rate
Wednesday, December 07, 2011
Economic BR>
07:00 MBA Mortgage Applications.
10:30 DoE Crude Oil/Gasoline/Distillate Inventories
15:00 US Oct Consumer Credit Change EventsConferences
Thursday December 08, 2011
Economic BR>
06:00 Brazil Nov IPCA Inflation
08:15 Canada Nov Housing Starts
08:30 US Initial/Continuing Jobless Claims
09:00 Mexico Nov Inflation
Friday December 09, 2011
Economic BR>
08:30 Canada Q3 Labor Productivity
08:30 Canada Oct International Merchandise Trade
09:55 US Dec Reuters/Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index
Please read our disclaimer:
Trading has large potential rewards, but also large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the markets. The videos are neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures or options. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Rule 4.41 - Hypothetical or simulated performance results have certain limitations. Unlike an actual performance record, simulated results do not represent actual trading. Also, since the trades have not been executed, the results may have under-or-over compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profit or losses similar to those shown. Learn to trade futures forex stocks.
08:30 US November Initial Jobless Claims, Continuing Claims
10:00 US October Construction Spending
10:00 US November ISM Manufacturing 10:00 US November ISM Prices Paid
17:00 US November Total Vehicle Sales, Domestic Vehicle Sales
Todays Headlines
- US equities gained a bit in early trading but remain more or less flat following yesterday's monster rally that followed in the wake of the coordinated central bank action. Note that in Wednesday's rally, the DJIA jumped 490.05 points, its largest gain since March 23, 2009. The central bank move was clearly a precautionary strategy to help boost liquidity in light of the European debt wildfire, however many analysts have been very skeptical about the sustainability of the rally, and in fact the shares of major US banks are already losing ground, with most leading names down 1.5-2.0% after yesterday's huge gains. On the data front, October Construction Spending surprised many analysts, gaining nearly three times the expected amount.
The ISM manufacturing data also topped expectations, with good strength seen in the new orders component. Crude oil, precious metals and base metals are largely flat today, also sustaining the gains from yesterday's session. Treasury prices opened lower once again but have been paring back losses. Sovereign spreads in Europe continue to narrow aggressively after French and Italian bond auction were received well: the Italian 10-year yield is down 40 basis points while the Spanish has declined by more than 50.
- In equity news, Sprint and Clearwire reached a deal for funding and network access for the next several years, eliminating fears of a Clearwire bankruptcy for the moment. Sprint said it would pay Clearwire $926M for unlimited use of its current WiMax network through 2013, with payments adjusted for usage thereafter. In return Clearwire committed to keep the network up and running at least until 2015. CLWR had gained more than 10% during yesterday's session on rumors of a deal, and is up more than 20% this morning. Earnings out of supermarket chain Kroger and Lululemon more or less met expectations. KR is up a few percent, while LULU is down 10% as investors worried about the firm's low margins and low margin guidance. BKS is down 18% after reporting an unexpected quarterly loss, thanks to costs from a one-time special dividend.
- The November same-store sales reports were polarized between big winners and sizable losers. In apparel, names that have been reported robust gains did so again in November, with The Limited, Buckle, Ross Stores and TJX really outperforming expectations, while Gap and Cato continue to really drag. In the broadline category, Costco crushed expectations while Target really missed. Among department names, Macys and Saks were much better than expected, while JC Penny and Kohls did very badly. Bonton, which has strugged over recent months, beat analysts' targets, however comps remained in the red. Most retailers are in the black in the early going, even TGT, although KSS is down 6% thanks to its poor showing.
- The euro continues to sustain the gains made after yesterday's coordinated central bank action. EUR/USD was a bit soft overnight, testing 1.3430 after ECB Chief Draghi reiterated that ECB action remains temporary and restricted by existing EU treaties, and as European PMI readings all came in below 50. However the euro firmed up a bit heading into the US session.
Please read our disclaimer:
Trading has large potential rewards, but also large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the markets. The videos are neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures or options. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Rule 4.41 - Hypothetical or simulated performance results have certain limitations. Unlike an actual performance record, simulated results do not represent actual trading. Also, since the trades have not been executed, the results may have under-or-over compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profit or losses similar to those shown. Learn to trade futures forex stocks.
SchoolOfTrade.com and United Business Servicing, Inc. are not registered investment or trading advisers. The services and content provided by SchoolOfTrade.com and United Business Servicing, Inc. are for educational purposes only, and should not be considered investment advice in any way. U.S. Government Required Disclaimer - Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Futures and Options trading have large potential rewards, but also large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the futures and options markets. Don't trade with money you can't afford to lose. This is neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures or options. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed on this web site. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results. cftc rule 4.41. These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or-over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown. Testimonials may not be representative of the experience of other clients. Testimonials are not a guarantee of future performance or success. No compensation is ever paid in exchange for any testimonials. Testimonials have not been independently verified.
