08:30 March Unemployment Rate, March Nonfarm Payrolls, March Manufacturing Payrolls, March Average Hourly Earnings
10:00 March ISM Manufacturing, March ISM Prices Paid, Feb Construction Spending
Todays Headlines
8:30:02 AM
*(US) INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS: 388K V 380KE; CONTINUING CLAIMS: 3.714M V 3.705ME (lowest since Oct 2008)
- Prior Initial Jobless Claims revised higher from 382K to 394K
- Prior Continuing Claims revised higher from 3.721M to 3.765M
9:45:03 AM
*(US) MARCH CHICAGO PURCHASING MANAGERS INDEX: 70.6 V 69.7E
**Sub-indices:
- Prices Paid: 83.4 v 81.2 prior (highest since July 2008)
- New Orders: 74.5 v 75.9 prior
- Employment: 65.5 v 59.8 prior (highest since Dec 1983)
- Inventories: 60.5 v 60.2 prior
11:02:13 AM
NY Fed: Purchased $2.1B in outright coupon purchase; dealers submitted $11.67B for consideration (bid to cover 5.56)
- Heaviest purchase was $7752M in the maturity
- Purchased maturities dated 05/15/2021 - 11/15/2027
11:30:42 AM
*(IR) IRISH BANK STRESS TESTS RESULTS: BANKS NEED €24B; Irish Life needs €4B, Allied Irish needs €13.3B, EBS requires €1.5B, Bank of Ireland needs €5.2B
- Calls for banks to raise the capital between 2011 and 2013
- Central bank notes that the banks will not have to conduct fire sales of their assets
11:39:18 AM
(IR) ECB's Honohan: Expects reality to be much better than the projections from the Irish stress tests, bank capital increases are sizeable
- Sees Ireland having a majority ownership in all of the banks
- Affirms that there is no imminent liquidity plan coming from the ECB, emergency assistance will decline as the economy improves
Please read our disclaimer:
Trading has large potential rewards, but also large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the markets. The videos are neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures or options. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Rule 4.41 - Hypothetical or simulated performance results have certain limitations. Unlike an actual performance record, simulated results do not represent actual trading. Also, since the trades have not been executed, the results may have under-or-over compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profit or losses similar to those shown. Learn to trade futures forex stocks.
08:30 US Initial Jobless Claims, Continuing Claims
09:45 US March Chicago PMI
10:00 US Feb Factory Orders, March NAPM Milwaukee
10:30 DoE Natural Gas Inventories
11:00 US March Kansas City Fed Index
Todays Headlines
7:00:03 AM
*(US) MBA MORTGAGE APPLICATIONS W/E MAR 25TH: -7.5% V +2.7% PRIOR
- Refi's: -10.1% v +2.7% prior.
- Avg Rate on 30y mortgage: 4.92% v 4.80% prior.
- Purchase Index: (Seasonally adj): -1.7% v +2.7% prior
7:25:47 AM
(US) President Obama to announce plan to cut US oil imports by one third over the next decade - Washington Post
- Senior administration officials say Obama will seek to reduce the U.S. dependence on foreign oil by boosting domestic energy production, offering incentives to increase the use of biofuels and natural gas, and making cars and trucks more fuel-efficient.
-Obama is expected to outline these steps during a speech on the nations energy security Wednesday at Georgetown University.
7:32:40 AM
(BR) Brazil Central Bank Quarterly Inflation Report: Sees 2011 CPI at 5.6%; Cuts GDP view to 4.0% from 4.5% prior
- Lowers 2012 CPI to 4.6% from 4.8%prior under market scenario (IPCA Inflation)
- Commodity prices showing some moderation; expects credit market to continue contribute to expansion of investment and consumption
- Sees inflation in emerging markets picking up
7:43:49 AM
Sterne Agee initiates coverage of Tech Hardware Sector
- Firm has AAPL, CSCO, and HPQ rated Buy and DELL, IM, RIMM, SNX, and SYNA rated Neutral
- AAPL price target $445
- CSCO price target $29
- HPQ price target $56
11:37:25 AM
(US) Pres Obama: Expects to reduce imports of foreign oil by one third over the next decade via higher fuel efficiency standards for heavy-duty trucks and cars
- Also to expand domestic production of both crude and ethanol in a "safe and responsible" way.
- Will consider incentives for promoting exploration in currently undeveloped oil leases in the US.
Please read our disclaimer:
Trading has large potential rewards, but also large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the markets. The videos are neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures or options. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Rule 4.41 - Hypothetical or simulated performance results have certain limitations. Unlike an actual performance record, simulated results do not represent actual trading. Also, since the trades have not been executed, the results may have under-or-over compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profit or losses similar to those shown. Learn to trade futures forex stocks.
07:30 US March Challenger Job Cuts
08:15 US March ADP Employment Change
10:30 DoE Crude Oil/Gasoline/Distillate Inventories
13:00 US Treasury's 7-year note auction
Todays Headlines
7:19:35 AM
(US) Fed's Bullard: Reiterates can move towards normalization of policy, could stop QE2 $100B short of $600B target, could taper the program
- Notes that the Fed is currently 'fueling the fire', and that monetary policy is eased so much that the Fed can start to wind down.
8:00:59 AM
(PO) Bank of Portugal lowers 2011 and 2012 GDP views
- Lowers 2011 GDP view to -1.4% v -1.3% prior
- Lowers 2012 GDP view to +0.3% v +0.6% prior
- Sees Sharp contraction in internal demand and investments for 2011/12 period with sharp increases in exports
- Sees implementation risks in 2011 austerity measures without precedents
10:01:03 AM
(US) FDIC board to vote on risk retention proposals for banks this morning, as well as "living will" liquidation rules, as expected
- Follow up:
- Vote was 5-0 for proposals on risk retention in securitization; public comment to last 60 days
- Vote was 5-0 in favor of proposing the living wills on too big to fail windowns and public comment
11:00:55 AM
(UK) BoE's Weale: Monetary policy should be tightened, would be bad policy to raise rates and then cut them quickly afterwards
- Sees possibility for inflation expectations to be higher than prior forecast, sees chance that profit margins for companies could be helped by the recent decline in the GBP
11:02:14 AM
NY Fed: Purchased $1.57B in TIPS securities; dealers submitted $6.49B for consideration (bid to cover 4.14)
- Heaviest purchase $605M in the 01/15/21 maturity
- Purchased maturities dated 04/15/2013 - 02/15/2041
Please read our disclaimer:
Trading has large potential rewards, but also large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the markets. The videos are neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures or options. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Rule 4.41 - Hypothetical or simulated performance results have certain limitations. Unlike an actual performance record, simulated results do not represent actual trading. Also, since the trades have not been executed, the results may have under-or-over compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profit or losses similar to those shown. Learn to trade futures forex stocks.
09:00 US Feb S&P/CS Home Price Index, Feb S&P/CS Composite-20
10:00 US March Consumer Confidence
11:00 US Treasury's 4-week bill auction
13:00 US Treasury's 5-year note auction
16:30 API Crude Oil/Gasoline/Distillate Inventories
Todays Headlines
9:14:41 AM
(EU) ECB Trichet: Reiterates view of concern if inflation persistently stays above the 2.0% target
- Increasing competitiveness aids eurozone stability. There must be oversight of competitiveness in the eurozone.
- Public sector costs have a significant impact on competitiveness.
- EMU needs more automatic deficit sanctions
- The definition of price stability is solidly anchored inflation expectations.
- Monetary union is vital to avoid economic imbalances
10:52:13 AM
(IR) Irish bank stress tests will not include any "nasty shocks," will show that Ireland's banks will not need more than €35B in funding
- Note that the stress test results are expected to be released on March 31st. Last week there were press reports that Ireland may need an additional €35B to recap its banks; EU prepared to provide additonal loans if Ireland details what its banks need.
11:30:23 AM
*(IS) ISRAEL CENTRAL BANK RAISES THE BASE RATE BY 50 BPS TO 3.00% (MORE THAN 25BPS EXPECTED)
- Israel inflation topped forecasts; Domestic activity continued to expand.
- notes housing prices up 16.3% over the last 12 month period
- Anticipating Fed rate hike going forward.
12:36:17 PM
(UK) UK Business Sec Cable: Not "too pessimistic" about unemployment, potential for labor growth is substantial; BOE sees no evidence of underlying inflation
- Lending may be constrained by bank capital requirements
- BOE policy has been helpful to UK govt.
12:45:28 PM
(US) Fed's Lockhart: Reiterates current monetary policy stance is appropriate
- Short term inflation should not result in long-term price rises.
- Rising cost of gasoline and food leading to adjustment in household spending.
1:06:33 PM
(EU) ECB's Bini-Smaghi: Italian banks need to expand overseas, raise more capital to comply with BASEL
- Does not believe there are any global banks in Italy.
- Expects lower profitability and lower dividends for Italy's banks going forward.
Please read our disclaimer:
Trading has large potential rewards, but also large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the markets. The videos are neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures or options. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Rule 4.41 - Hypothetical or simulated performance results have certain limitations. Unlike an actual performance record, simulated results do not represent actual trading. Also, since the trades have not been executed, the results may have under-or-over compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profit or losses similar to those shown. Learn to trade futures forex stocks.
"Correct me if I'm wrong, but hasn't the fine line between sanity and madness gotten finer?"
Market Week Wrap-Up
- The rally in US equity markets is continuing this morning, with the major indices gaining in the wake of the US GDP data. The final reading of US Q4 GDP came in slightly higher than the preliminary reading, at +3.1% v +2.8% as seen on February 25th. The final March University of Michigan Confidence index was somewhat weak, coming in at its lowest level since November 2009. In Europe the leadership summit is ongoing, after Portugal has been essentially barred from debt markets by action from S&P and LCH Clearnet. Although no official announcement has been made about a bailout package for the country, it is expected soon. Japan's nuclear regulator said one reactor core at the quake-damaged Fukushima plant may be cracked and leaking radiation. Note that markets have apparently been numbed to headlines on the European and Japanese crises. May WTI crude has dropped below $105, although the contract does not seem able to sustain much downward momentum.
- Research in Motion is down a whopping 10% this morning and showing no signs of recovery after the firm offered a weak forecast for the current quarter. RIMM blamed the lower profit outlook for its first quarter on higher promotional and research spending associated with the launch of its much anticipated Playbook, which is due to launch on April 19th. Multiple analysts cut the firm this morning. Oracle gained 5% in the premarket after modestly beating consensus estimates in its Q3 and offering strong guidance for Q4. Shares of ORCL have given up some of those gains in the early going. Tech consultancy Accenture jumped 8% in pre-market trading, although the name has lost some ground in mid-morning trade. ACN beat expectations and bumped up its FY11 guidance. After falling 2% in the pre-market, shares of Smart Modular Technologies are recovering nicely, up to +4%.
- After giving up gains during yesterday's US session, the dollar has made fresh headway against the majors aided by a slight bump up in the final Q4 US GDP reading and plethora of Fed speak. Fed Governor Fisher reiterated his hawkish position, stating that it was time for the FOMC to lift its foot from the monetary gas pedal. Political uncertainty in Portugal and the delay in the renegotiation of Ireland's bailout terms were also overshadowing the EU summit, where officials were trying to work out the final, still controversial details of the European rescue mechanism. LCH Clearnet stated that following recent downgrades of Portugal, the country's bonds were no longer eligible for delivery as of March 28th.
Week of 3/28/2011 thru 4/1/2011
Monday, March 28, 2011
Economic
08:30 US Feb Personal Income, Feb Personal Spending, Feb PCE Core
10:00 US Jan Pending Home Sales
10:30 US March Dallas Fed Manufacturing
11:30 US Treasury's 3- and 6-month bill auction
13:00 US Treasury's 2-year note auction
Tuesday, March 29, 2011
Economic
09:00 US Feb S&P/CS Home Price Index, Feb S&P/CS Composite-20
10:00 US March Consumer Confidence
11:00 US Treasury's 4-week bill auction
13:00 US Treasury's 5-year note auction
16:30 API Crude Oil/Gasoline/Distillate Inventories
Wednesday, March 30, 2011
Economic
07:30 US March Challenger Job Cuts
08:15 US March ADP Employment Change
10:30 DoE Crude Oil/Gasoline/Distillate Inventories
13:00 US Treasury's 7-year note auction
Thursday, March 31, 2011
Economic
08:30 US Initial Jobless Claims, Continuing Claims
09:45 US March Chicago PMI
10:00 US Feb Factory Orders, March NAPM Milwaukee
10:30 DoE Natural Gas Inventories
11:00 US March Kansas City Fed Index
Friday, April 01, 2011
Economic
08:30 March Unemployment Rate, March Nonfarm Payrolls, March Manufacturing Payrolls, March Average Hourly Earnings
10:00 March ISM Manufacturing, March ISM Prices Paid, Feb Construction Spending
Please read our disclaimer:
Trading has large potential rewards, but also large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the markets. The videos are neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures or options. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Rule 4.41 - Hypothetical or simulated performance results have certain limitations. Unlike an actual performance record, simulated results do not represent actual trading. Also, since the trades have not been executed, the results may have under-or-over compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profit or losses similar to those shown. Learn to trade futures forex stocks.
8:30 Feb Durable Goods Orders, Durables Ex Transportation, Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air, Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air, Initial Jobless claims, Continuing claims
Todays Headlines
8:30:03 AM
*(US) INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS: 382K V 383KE; CONTINUING CLAIMS: 3.721M V 3.70ME (Continuing Claims lowest since Sept 2008)
- Prior Initial Jobless Claims revised higher from 385K to 387K
- Prior Continuing Claims revised higher from 3.706M to 3.723M
11:04:39 AM
NY Fed: Purchased $6.99B in outright coupon purchase; dealers submitted $27.26B for consideration (bid to cover 3.9)
- Heaviest purchase $4.87B in the 03/15/14 maturity
- Purchased maturities dated 09/30/2013 - 02/28/2015
11:49:12 AM
(US) Fed members expected to express more caution on inflation and inflation expectations - financial press, citing sources
- Reminder: Fed's Fisher in recent days has spoken, raising concerns about potential inflation, calling for caution in preventing prices from taking hold.
1:01:25 PM
(SZ) SNB's Danthine: There was no target for SNB FX intervention, goal was to avoid deflation and provide price stability; Sees Signs of inflation in EU and UK, may result in higher interest rates
- Cannot say SNB was "defeated" on intervention
- SNB actions on forex will only be costly if elevated inflation takes hold.
- Gauging SNB's balance sheet is not a metric of the success or failure of intervention.
- Will take global developments into account on forecasts.
1:01:46 PM
(US) TREASURY'S $11B 10-YEAR TIPS DRAW 0.92%; BID-TO-COVER RATIO: 2.97 V 2.91 PRIOR AND 2.90 AVG OVER THE LAST 5 REOPENINGS
- Indirect bidders take 25.2% of competitive bids with 77.76% allotted at the high
- Direct bidders take 7.07%, dealers take 67.7%
- Median 0.87%, low 0.49%
Please read our disclaimer:
Trading has large potential rewards, but also large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the markets. The videos are neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures or options. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Rule 4.41 - Hypothetical or simulated performance results have certain limitations. Unlike an actual performance record, simulated results do not represent actual trading. Also, since the trades have not been executed, the results may have under-or-over compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profit or losses similar to those shown. Learn to trade futures forex stocks.
8:30 Feb Durable Goods Orders, Durables Ex Transportation, Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air, Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air, Initial Jobless claims, Continuing claims
10:30 DoE Natural Gas Inventories
11:00 Treasury note announcement
13:00 10year TIPS auction
Todays Headlines
8:33:42 AM
(UK) Chancellor of the Exchequer Osborne begins budget speech
- This is not a tax increasing budget, budget measures to be fiscally neutral.
- OBR gives plans over 50% chance of hitting targets.
- Unemployment to peak in 2011.
- Cost of actions in Libya to be met by the Treasury.
9:09:53 AM
(IS) Explosion heard in Jewish neighborhood in Jerusalem, near main bus station - local press
- Subsequent reports indicate there was a bomb on a bus. There have been reports of casualties.
- Follow up: Jerusalem blast was not on bus and 'apparently not a suicide attack'; bomb was attached to a phone booth. One person reported killed
10:05:38 AM
(PO) Dealer chattter circulating of a possible postponement to the austerity vote in Portugal
- Other chatter circulation is that Portugal ruling party changed the wording of the question for the vote
10:37:45 AM
(PO) Portugal opposition party now claims the austerity budget vote will go forward
- Portugal PM Socrates plans to attend the EU summit despite any results that may come from the budget austerity vote
11:01:02 AM
(US) Fed's Fisher: Must be careful prices do not take hold like they seem to have done in the UK and Europe
- Feels as though the markets are not recognizing the efforts that Spain has taken on reforms as much as they should; must distinguish between Spain and other countries like Greece and Portugal.
Please read our disclaimer:
Trading has large potential rewards, but also large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the markets. The videos are neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures or options. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Rule 4.41 - Hypothetical or simulated performance results have certain limitations. Unlike an actual performance record, simulated results do not represent actual trading. Also, since the trades have not been executed, the results may have under-or-over compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profit or losses similar to those shown. Learn to trade futures forex stocks.
10:00 Feb New Home Sales, m/m
10:30 DoE Crude Oil/Gasoline/Distillate Inventories
Todays Headlines
7:37:44 AM
(US) Fed's Fisher: Health of the US economy is dependent on fiscal policy, not on Japan or the Middle East
- Increase in liquidity triggers concern; reiterates that a single mandate for the Fed is a personal preference
- Recent market rally was financed by increased liquidity and speculative activity may have driven oil prices higher.
- Seeing signs of "intoxication" from cheap capital.
8:22:10 AM
(US) Fed's Fisher: US fiscal policy is at a tipping point, the fiscal path we are on now would eventually lead to insolvency
- Reiterates danger of Fed monitizing the debt, warns would lead to economic destruction.
- US housing to stay depressed for some time to come.
- Current recovery in the US is sustainable and self propelling.
10:16:55 AM
(US) Dept of Interior BOEMRE's Bromwich: Risks remain in shallow water drilling; deepwater Horizon incident was not an aberration but a case of systemic failure
- Plans to issue more drilling permits for the Gulf of Mexico next week
10:00:23 AM
(UK) BoE's Sentance: Failure to raise rates now risks abrupt future hikes, which could threaten recovery; should be wary of basing monetary policy on hopes for economic growth
- Sees upside risks to inflation and consumption patterns from rebound in wages in 2012.
- Employment data is showing healthy growth.
- The MPC must act to cope with inflation now.
11:05:03 AM
NY Fed: Purchased $7.56B in outright coupon purchase; dealers submitted $27.67B for consideration (bid to cover 3.66)
- Heaviest purchase $1.99B in the 02/28/18 maturity (longest dated)
- Purchased maturities dated 09/30/2016 - 02/28/2018
Please read our disclaimer:
Trading has large potential rewards, but also large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the markets. The videos are neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures or options. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Rule 4.41 - Hypothetical or simulated performance results have certain limitations. Unlike an actual performance record, simulated results do not represent actual trading. Also, since the trades have not been executed, the results may have under-or-over compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profit or losses similar to those shown. Learn to trade futures forex stocks.
10:00 Jan House Price Index MoM
10:00 Mar Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index
11:00 Treasury's 4 week bill announcement
16:30 API Crude Oil/Gasoline/Distillate Inventories
Todays Headlines
6:47:45 AM
*(NV) NETHERLANDS DEBT AGENCY (DSTA) SELLS APPROX €5.0B VS. €6.0B INDICATED IN 3-MONTH, 6-MONTH AND 7-MONTH BILLS
- Sells €1.41B in 3-month Jun 2011 Bills; Avg Yield 0.765% v 0.670% prior
- Sells €1.84B in 6-month Sept 2011 Bills; Avg Yield 0.980% v 0.700% prior
- Sells €1.76B in 7-month Oct 2011 Bills; Avg Yield 1.040% v 0.910% prior
7:01:33 AM
(EU) German Bundesbank: Reiterates prior view that maintaining ECB allotment for too long impairs direction of economy thorugh interest rates
- Should reduce balance sheet as financial markets improve
- Financial stability mandate overloading monetary policy
9:00:46 AM
*(PD) POLAND JAN CURRENT ACCOUNT: -€930M V -€1.3BE; TRADE BALANCE: +€275M V -€610ME
- Exports: €10.2B v €10.1Be
- Imports: €9.9B v €10.7Be
9:30:16 AM
(JP) US Official notes that the Fukushima Daiichi reactors #1, #2, and #3 are stable at the Japan plant
- Follow Up: IAEA official comments that the #1 reactor remains very serious yet there are signs of improvement; #5 and #6 are not a major concern; claims the radiation is high at #1
- Offsite power to Fukushima is an optimistic sign
10:00:23 AM
(EU) ECB's Tumpel-Gugerell: Reiterates ECB strong vigilance stance; Inflation has been clearly impacted by oil prices
- CPI to be well above the 2.0% target over the next few months
- ECB to take appropriate action if medium term price stability is threatened
10:34:29 AM
(EU) ECB Trichet: Reiterates that must avoid second round effects, Yen intervention was the correct signal to send - Q&A of EU Parliamant
- ESM should be able to make secondary market interventions; recent increase in size of Euro rescue funds is 'credible' and in line with expectations
- Spain is heading the right direction
- Considering whether the EBA should request Banks publish total holdings of sovereign debt holdings
Please read our disclaimer:
Trading has large potential rewards, but also large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the markets. The videos are neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures or options. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Rule 4.41 - Hypothetical or simulated performance results have certain limitations. Unlike an actual performance record, simulated results do not represent actual trading. Also, since the trades have not been executed, the results may have under-or-over compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profit or losses similar to those shown. Learn to trade futures forex stocks.
*(US) FEB HOUSING STARTS: 479K V 566KE; BUILDING PERMITS: 517K V 570KE
- Prior Housing Starts revised higher from 596K to 618K
- No further revisions to Building Permits
8:30:02 AM
*(US) INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS: 385K V 388KE; CONTINUING CLAIMS: 3.706M V 3.75ME
- Prior Initial Jobless Claims revised higher from 397K to 401K
- Prior Continuing Claims revised higher from 3.771M to 3.786M
8:30:03 AM
*(US) FEB CONSUMER PRICE INDEX M/M: 0.5% V 0.4%E; CPI EX FOOD & ENERGY M/M: 0.2% V 0.1%E; CPI NSA: 221.31 V 221.100E
- CPI Y/Y: 2.1% v 2.0%e
- CPI Ex-food & Energy Y/Y: 1.1% v 1.0%e
- CPI core index SA: 223.03 v 222.587 prior
9:15:03 AM
*(US) FEB INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION: -0.1% V +0.6%E (first contraction in 4 months); CAPACITY UTILIZATION: 76.3% V 76.5%E
- Prior Industrial Production revised higher from -0.1% to +0.3%
- Prior Capacity Utilization revised higher from 76.1% to 76.4%
10:54:20 AM
(LB) France UN Ambassador calls for UN Security Council to vote on Libya no-fly zone; If resolution passed, military action can be under way in "several hours"
- Requesting that vote takes place at 18:00ET (22:00GMT)
- Feels confident of having enough votes for a resolution
11:08:09 AM
NOAA: Spring flooding expected to get worse through April; above average risk of flooding for about 50% of the US
- Could see the Red River overflow in late March or early April.
- Uncertain if flooding will delay Iowa corn plantings.
Please read our disclaimer:
Trading has large potential rewards, but also large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the markets. The videos are neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures or options. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Rule 4.41 - Hypothetical or simulated performance results have certain limitations. Unlike an actual performance record, simulated results do not represent actual trading. Also, since the trades have not been executed, the results may have under-or-over compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profit or losses similar to those shown. Learn to trade futures forex stocks.
08:30 Feb CPI, Feb CPI Ex Food & Energy, Feb CPI Core Index SA, Initial Jobless Claims, Continuing Claims
09:15 US Feb Industrial Production, Feb Capacity Utilization
10:00 Feb Leading Indicators, March Philadelphia Fed
10:30 DoE Natural Gas Inventories
11:00 US Treasury's 10-year TIPS announcement
Todays Headlines
8:30:03 AM
*(US) FEB HOUSING STARTS: 479K V 566KE; BUILDING PERMITS: 517K V 570KE
- Prior Housing Starts revised higher from 596K to 618K
- No further revisions to Building Permits
9:11:01 AM
(GE) Germany's Econ Min Schaeuble: The impact of Japan's crisis on German budget is yet to be measured
- Confident that net borrowing could move below €10B by 2016
- Germany's 2011 Budget Deficit to come in below the 3% Maastricht criteria and remain below that level in 2012
- Expects EU commission to move on a transaction tax
9:24:25 AM
(EU) ECB's Liikanen: Inflation expectations have not changed since March meeting; too soon to gauge Japanese effect on the eurozone
- ECB has not decided yet on the path of interest rates (in line with Trichet's comments earlier in the month about not a series of rate hikes)
- Reiterates that ECB does not pre-commit on rate policy
10:00:22 AM
(UK) OECD lowers UK 2011 GDP forecast to 1.5% from 1.7% prior view citing 'significant headwinds'
- Forecasts 2012 GDP growth at 2.0%
- Raises 2011 CPI forecast to 3.3% from 2.6% Nov view
- BOE should maintain expansionary monetary policy and raise rates slowly from mid-2011
10:56:54 AM
(JP) EU's Energy Chief Oettinger: Sees potential for catastrophic events in the next few hours as situation at Japan's nuclear plant is "out of control"
- EU to discuss energy policy at a meeting next week. EU nuclear safety rules must be revised next year.
Please read our disclaimer:
Trading has large potential rewards, but also large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the markets. The videos are neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures or options. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Rule 4.41 - Hypothetical or simulated performance results have certain limitations. Unlike an actual performance record, simulated results do not represent actual trading. Also, since the trades have not been executed, the results may have under-or-over compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profit or losses similar to those shown. Learn to trade futures forex stocks.
08:30 US Q4 Current Account Balace, Feb PPI, Feb Feb PPI Ex Food & Energy, Feb Housing Starts, Feb Building Permits, Canada Jan Manufacturing Shipments
10:30 DoE Crude Oil/Gasoline/Distillate Inventories
Todays Headlines
9:56:27 AM
(NZ) Fonterra Global Dairy Trade auction: Milk product prices -8.2% from prior auction on Mar 1 (+5.9% prior)
- Average winning auction price $4,443 /metric ton v $4,826/metric ton prior (was a record high)
- Whole milk powder -11.4%
- Anhydrous milk fat -4.5%
10:00:50 AM
(US) FDIC recommends clawback provisions and wind down authority for large firms
- Wind down authority will control how creditors are handled in liquidation
- Clawback provisions to cover 2 year time period for senior members of a financial institution
11:03:48 AM
(US) Treasury Sec Geithner: Not expecting Japan to sell US treasury holdings to help finance its reconstruction
- Not expecting Japan's crisis to impact US interest rates.
- Sees no risk of systemic problems from post-earthquake stock market declines in Asia.
- Remains difficult to judge the extent of economic damage in Japan.
1:31:29 PM
(EU) New EU stress test questionnaire to use national norms to define capital and asset ratios - US financial press citing sources
- Reminder: Last week reports circulated that some felt the new stress tests would repeat some of the flaws from the prior test, allowing different capital ratios between countries, while Regulators defended rules, claiming the stress tests would be more stringent than the prior test
2:14:00 PM
*FOMC HOLDS FED FUNDS RATE TARGET AT 0.25% (AS EXPECTED); Reiterates rates likely to remain low for an extended period; Reaffirms treasury security purchases program remains unchanged, and will be adjusted as needed.
- Vote 10-0
- Committee will maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and continues to anticipate that economic conditions, including low rates of resource utilization, subdued inflation trends, and stable inflation expectations, are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels for the federal funds rate for an extended period
Please read our disclaimer:
Trading has large potential rewards, but also large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the markets. The videos are neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures or options. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Rule 4.41 - Hypothetical or simulated performance results have certain limitations. Unlike an actual performance record, simulated results do not represent actual trading. Also, since the trades have not been executed, the results may have under-or-over compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profit or losses similar to those shown. Learn to trade futures forex stocks.
08:30 US March Empire Manufacturing , Feb Import Price Index
09:00 US Jan Net Long-Term TIC Flows, Jan Total Net TIC Flows
10:00 US March NAHB Housing Index
11:30 US Treasury's 4-week bill auction
14:15 FOMC rate decision
Todays Headlines
6:52:25 AM
(JP) Japan to release around three days worth of oil reserves - Trade Ministry
**Note: As of 2010, Japan's state controlled reserves of petroleum which equal about 324M barrels.
- The US' SPR is about 727M barrels.
11:02:32 AM
NY Fed: Purchased $7.56B in outright coupon purchase; dealers submitted $24.58B for consideration (bid to cover 3.25)
- Heaviest purchase $2.38 in the 11/15/19 maturity
- Purchased maturities dated 05/15/2018 - 02/15/2021
12:19:55 PM
(IR) Ireland Fin Min Noonan: Affirms PM's position that Ireland will not make concessions corporate tax rate to receive debt adjustment from the EMU
- Reiterates that the country is not pushing forward on haircuts for bondholders
- Want to see results from the stress tests before any new deal with the EMU can be set
1:40:33 PM
(JP) Moody's: Japan can still fund its deficit at a very low cost; Investors may become less confident over Japan govt's fiscal state
- Sees no immediate indications of fiscal crisis following disaster
2:24:25 PM
(LB) Libya government forces take control of opposition held city of Zuwarah in Western Libya
- Note: Zuwarah is the Westernmost town on the Libyan coast, near the Tunisian border.
Please read our disclaimer:
Trading has large potential rewards, but also large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the markets. The videos are neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures or options. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Rule 4.41 - Hypothetical or simulated performance results have certain limitations. Unlike an actual performance record, simulated results do not represent actual trading. Also, since the trades have not been executed, the results may have under-or-over compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profit or losses similar to those shown. Learn to trade futures forex stocks.
"An adventure is only an inconvenience rightly considered. An inconvenience is an adventure wrongly considered."
Market Week Wrap-Up
The focus is squarely on Japan this morning, where a massive 8.9 magnitude earthquake struck off the country's Pacific coast around 12:50AM EST. The event triggered destructive tsunamis, which have devastated the areas around the northern cities of Sendai and Miyagi, and disrupted life in Tokyo. The much feared "day of rage" protest scheduled for today in Saudi Arabia seems to have been a non event, and this development plus the disaster in Japan have forced oil prices broadly lower. Front-month WTI crude tested below $100 briefly and is currently trading only just above $100, while Brent crude remains relatively strong, giving up two bucks to trade around $113.
Spot gold is around $1,413, still drifting away from recent all-time highs. In the US, the March preliminary University of Michigan confidence reading declined sharply from January levels, returning to levels seen last October. One-year inflation expectations tracked by the survey have surged to 4.6%, their highest level since August 2008 sparking some selling in US Treasury markets. The benchmark US 10-year yield finished yesterday's session at the lowest level in weeks and has only risen modestly thus far despite substantial gains in European fixed income markets. On a more positive note, the retail sales index continued to show steady, moderate growth in February, while the January data was revised higher.
- A broad selection on names are down on the Japan earthquakes, including ADRs of nearly all Japanese corporation, European reinsurance names and a broad selection of other companies. Toyota, Honda and Sony ADRs are all down more than 2%, while reinsurance name Munich Re's ADR is down 4.5%. In other news, Chevron struck a deal to sell its Pembroke refinery to Valero for $730M in cash. CVX is up slightly, while shares of VLO are up nearly 6%. Note that refiner Tesoro is up nearly 7% as well. Discount retailer 99Only Stores received a going private proposal at $19.09/shr from the Schiffer/Gold family (holds 30% of the company already) and Leonard Green Partners.
- Safe-haven sentiment has helped the USD as traders braced for turmoil stemming from protests in Saudi Arabia, the EU leaders' meeting and the aftermath of the Japanese earthquake. FX markets are pivoting around price action in the yen, with alleged capital repatriation as major theme. USD/JPY tested the 82.00 level several times with chatter of a semi-official name defending the area. EUR/USD regained its composure to climb back above 1.38 after testing 1.3750 level.
Week of 3/7/2011 thru 3/11/2011
Monday, March 14, 2011
Economic
08:30 Canada Q4 Capacity Utilization
11:30 US Treasury's 3- and 6-month bill auction
Tuesday, March 15, 2011
Economic
08:30 US March Empire Manufacturing , Feb Import Price Index
09:00 US Jan Net Long-Term TIC Flows, Jan Total Net TIC Flows
10:00 US March NAHB Housing Index
11:30 US Treasury's 4-week bill auction
14:15 FOMC rate decision
16:30 API Crude Oil/Gasoline/Distillate Inventories
Wednesday, March 16, 2011
Economic
08:30 US Q4 Current Account Balace, Feb PPI, Feb Feb PPI Ex Food & Energy, Feb Housing Starts, Feb Building Permits, Canada Jan Manufacturing Shipments
10:30 DoE Crude Oil/Gasoline/Distillate Inventories
Thursday, March 17, 2011
Economic
08:30 Feb CPI, Feb CPI Ex Food & Energy, Feb CPI Core Index SA, Initial Jobless Claims, Continuing Claims
09:15 US Feb Industrial Production, Feb Capacity Utilization
10:00 Feb Leading Indicators, March Philadelphia Fed
10:30 DoE Natural Gas Inventories
11:00 US Treasury's 10-year TIPS announcement
Please read our disclaimer:
Trading has large potential rewards, but also large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the markets. The videos are neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures or options. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Rule 4.41 - Hypothetical or simulated performance results have certain limitations. Unlike an actual performance record, simulated results do not represent actual trading. Also, since the trades have not been executed, the results may have under-or-over compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profit or losses similar to those shown. Learn to trade futures forex stocks.
07:00 Canada Feb Employment
08:30 US Feb Retail Sales
09:55 US March University of Michigan Confidence
10:00 US Jan Business Inventories
Todays Headlines
8:30:03 AM
*(US) INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS: 397K V 376KE; CONTINUING CLAIMS: 3.771M V 3.75ME
- Prior Initial Jobless Claims revised higher from 368K to 371K
- Prior Continuing Claims revised higher from 3.774M to 3.791M
9:36:53 AM
(EU) ECB's Gonzalez-Paramo: Reiterates view that inflation risks are on the upside; rates will move higher sooner rather than later
- Views the rising inflation expectations as a 'wake-up call' for central banks.
- Take time to reduce debt and austerity measure will weigh upon growth.
- Timing of rate hike is uncertain (i.e. ECB does not precommit), but would not be surprised by a rate hike at the April ECB meeting; reiterates Trichet's comments that the ECB is now in a mode of strong vigilance
10:59:53 AM
(LB) NATO Sec Gen Rasmussen: NATO plans to increase number of vessels stationed in the Mediterranean off Libya; NATO did not discuss air strikes
- Additional planning will be needed for implementation of any no-fly zone.
- Still require a UN resolution to enforce the Libya arms embargo
- Follow up: US Defense Sec Gates: NATO will continue to assess a no-fly zone, warns that UN resolution limits military options in Libya. A new UN Security Council resolution would be needed to expand possible NATO options.
11:37:14 AM
(SP) Bank of Spain: Sees banking sector capital shortfall of €15.1B, 12 banks require additional capital
- Eight institutions with shortfalls are savings banks (cajas), two are listed banks and two are foreign banks.
- Notes that FROB has already injected €11.6B into Spanish banks.
- Warns that Deutsche Bank units and Bankinter are not meeting govt captial targets.
1:01:43 PM
*(US) TREASURY'S $13B 30-YEAR BOND REOPENING DRAWS 4.569%; BID-TO-COVER RATIO 3.02 V 2.767 PRIOR AND 2.73 AVG OVER THE LAST REOPENINGS
- 45.5% allotted at high
- Indirect bidders take 43.4% of competitive bids, 0.01% go to Direct bidders, Primary Dealers take 56.6%
- Median 4.53%, Low 4.459%
Please read our disclaimer:
Trading has large potential rewards, but also large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the markets. The videos are neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures or options. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Rule 4.41 - Hypothetical or simulated performance results have certain limitations. Unlike an actual performance record, simulated results do not represent actual trading. Also, since the trades have not been executed, the results may have under-or-over compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profit or losses similar to those shown. Learn to trade futures forex stocks.
08:30 US Jan Trade Balance, Canada Jan Trade Balance Initial Jobless Claims, Continuing Claims
10:30 DoE Natural Gas Inventories
13:00 US Treasury's 30-year bond auction
14:00 US Feb Budget Statement
Todays Headlines
6:00:02 AM
*(GE) GERMANY JAN INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION M/M: 1.8% V 1.7%E; Y/Y: 12.5% V 11.1%E
- Prior MoM revised higher from -1.5% to -0.6%
- Prior YoY revised higher from 10.0% to 11.3%
6:29:26 AM
(PO) Portugal Treasury Sec: Reiterates view that country does NOT need external assistance; Bond yields high and require immediate European measures
- Yields do not affect the fundamentals of the country.
- Borrowing costs remain sustainable at this time but not sustainable in the long run.
7:00:03 AM
*(US) MBA MORTGAGE APPLICATIONS W/E MAR 4TH: 15.5% V -6.5% PRIOR
- Refi's: +17.2% v +6.5% prior.
- Avg Rate on 30y mortgage: 4.93% v 4.84% prior.
- Purchase Index: (Seasonally adj): +12.5% v -6.1% prior
10:08:51 AM
(MX) Mexico Feb Vehicle Production: 193.5 K v 199.3K prior; Vehicle Exports: 155.8K v 165.5K prior; Domestic Vehicle Sales: 70.0K v 68.8K prior
- Prior Vehicle Production revised from 199.3K to K
- Prior Vehicle Exports revised from 165.5K to K
- Prior Domestic Vehicle Sales revised from 68.8K to K
- No revisions
11:02:31 AM
NY Fed: Purchased $6.69B in outright coupon purchase; dealers submitted $35.47B for consideration (bid to cover 5.3)
- Heaviest purchase $5.11B in the 02/29/16 maturity
- Purchased maturities date 03/31/2015 - 08/31/2016
Please read our disclaimer:
Trading has large potential rewards, but also large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the markets. The videos are neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures or options. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Rule 4.41 - Hypothetical or simulated performance results have certain limitations. Unlike an actual performance record, simulated results do not represent actual trading. Also, since the trades have not been executed, the results may have under-or-over compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profit or losses similar to those shown. Learn to trade futures forex stocks.
10:00 US Jan Wholesale Inventories
10:30 DoE Crude Oil/Gasoline/Distillate Inventories
13:00 US Treasury's 10-year note auction
Todays Headlines
3:37:52 AM
(LB) Rebel council official: Confirms that opposition received govt request to negotiate a deal for Gaddafi's exit, negoitations rejected due to lack of trust
- Rebel National Council Chief: Might not pursue Gaddafi for crimes if he steps down
- Council is in indirect contact with US
3:38:53 AM
(VN) Vietnam Central Bank expected to raise the refinance rate by 100bps to 12%; expected to raise the discount rate by 500bps to 12% from 7%
- On Feb 17th, the Vietnam central bank raised the refi rate by 200bps to 11%
- On Nov 5th, the central bank raised the discount rate by 100bps to 7%.
4:00:27 AM
(EU) ECB's Nowotny: Some global interest rates have been too low for too long; does not see any long-term inflation problems
- Reiterates view that the sovereign debt crisis is NOT a crisis of the euro
- Reiterates ECB view that the central bank does not pre-commit policy decisions
- Have begun exit from extraordinary measures as things normalize
4:34:46 AM
(EU) ECB's Nowotny: Monetary policy cannot take specific countries into account
- Convergence of EMU economies is a matter of national policy
- Reiterates ECB view that inflation will be above the 2.0% for 2011; views inflation with 'strong vigilance' (in line with Trichet)
- Need to avoid secondary effects of inflation
5:05:27 AM
(EU) German Econ Min Bruederle: Not concerned that recent sovereign downgrade of Greece would bring renewed insecurity for the EUR currency
- EU reforms on the right track and competitiveness agreement to help strengthen the EUR currency
- Germany economic recovery is not endangered by the train driver strike
Please read our disclaimer:
Trading has large potential rewards, but also large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the markets. The videos are neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures or options. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Rule 4.41 - Hypothetical or simulated performance results have certain limitations. Unlike an actual performance record, simulated results do not represent actual trading. Also, since the trades have not been executed, the results may have under-or-over compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profit or losses similar to those shown. Learn to trade futures forex stocks.
08:15 Canada Feb Housing Starts
10:00 US March Feb IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism
11:30 US Treasury's 1-month and 1-year bill auction
13:00 US Treasury's 3-year note auction
16:30 API Crude Oil/Gasoline/Distillate Inventories
Todays Headlines
8:00:26 AM
(US) Fed's Lockhart (non-voter): Very cautious about extending QE2 beyond June; inflation to be a key focus in planning Fed's exit strategy
- Reiterates that there is no immediate need to exit bond buying program.
- A passive process of policy unwinding is not likely, warns that any exit involves rising fed funds rate target.
- Does not expect credit overheating during the policy exit.
8:00:43 AM
(EU) ECB's Trichet: Energy prices are more of a concern than at the last BIS meeting; need global unity to keep CPI expectations steady
- -Central banks across the world are ready to do whatever it takes to avert a sustained increase in inflation expectations
- Clarifies coordination comments, notes that coordination worldwide is not the same as making the same decisions
- Calls for proper incentives to help food supply
8:55:19 AM
(FR) France Debt Agency (ATF) sells approx €8.0B vs. €8.0B Indicated in 3-month, 6-month and 12-month Bills
- Sells €4B in 3-month treasury bills; avg yield 0.773%
- Sells €2B in 6-month treasury bills; avg yield 0.970%
- Sells €2B in 12-month treasury bills; avg yield 1.316%
9:13:20 AM
(US) Fed's Fisher: May vote to halt further bond purchases before the June deadline, believes QE2 may be counterproductive
- Would certainly vote against extending bond purchases under QE2 past the June deadline.
- More accomodation could actually hurt the US economy.
- Only fiscal policy can aid in job creation.
10:07:29 AM
(US) Fed's Evans: High oil prices are a headwind for the real economy, not expecting prices to end up in underlying inflation - CNBC interview
- Accomodative policy places a little bit of pressure on prices but is not the reason for the recent commodity price rise.
- Improvement in the labor market is a welcome sign.
- Sees 2010 and 2011 GDP at 4%.
- As QE2 program continues, it is looking more and more like the $600B figure will be appropriate.
- Does not see any need to taper off QE2 program.
11:02:41 AM
NY Fed: Purchased $6.61B in outright coupon purchase; dealers submitted $29.6B for consideration (bid to cover 4.48)
- Avg bid to cover over prior four auctions is: 4.4
- Heaviest purchase $1.63B in the 01/15/14 maturity
11:20:01 AM
(LB) President Obama: Reiterates no options are off the table in regards to Libya, NATO is considering military options
- US has authorized $15M in humanitarian aid for Libya.
Please read our disclaimer:
Trading has large potential rewards, but also large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the markets. The videos are neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures or options. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Rule 4.41 - Hypothetical or simulated performance results have certain limitations. Unlike an actual performance record, simulated results do not represent actual trading. Also, since the trades have not been executed, the results may have under-or-over compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profit or losses similar to those shown. Learn to trade futures forex stocks.
"When a thing is done, it's done. Don't look back. Look forward to your next objective."
Market Week Wrap-Up
- Flight-to-safety trading dictated market sentiment for a second week in a row as bloody protests in Libya morphed into civil war. Front-month WTI crude closed above $100 on Wednesday for the first time since the 2008 oil spike, and finished the week above $104, while spot gold remains just below all-time highs at $1,415/oz. Silver is at 35-year highs, above $35. Conflict in Libya looks to go on for some time, as Muammar Gaddafi and his sons indicated in several more unhinged speeches that they have no intention to give up power. Adding to the absurdity, the Libyan government agreed to let Hugo Chavez negotiate a settlement with the opposition (the rebels dismissed the offer out of hand). In the US, markets were somewhat disappointed when the February employment reports did not deliver the big snapback in job growth they have been waiting for. All in all the jobs numbers were relatively strong, with non-farms payrolls at +192K and private payrolls at +222K, levels last seen in May 2009 on the way down the employment trough of the recession. The unemployment rate dropped below 9%, although the historically low labor force participation rate played a role in forcing the series lower. Analysts said that seasonal revisions to the data held back the numbers to a certain degree, and one said that if last year's seasonal revisions had been used the headline non-farm payrolls might have been as much as +300K. In Europe, the ECB took no action at the March policy meeting, as expected, but at the post-decision press conference ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet said outright that rates may rise at the April meeting. Fed Chairman Bernanke testified before the Senate and the House on Tuesday and Wednesday. Bernanke warned that a sustained rise in oil and commodity prices could damage the economic recovery, while also dismissing fears of near-term inflation. Thanks to a big Thursday rally in anticipation of the Friday employment data, equity markets eked out a small gain this week: the DJIA rose 0.3%, the Nasdaq gained 0.1% and the S&P500 was up 0.1%.
- The US banking sector has taken a beating over the last several days, with major banks down 2-5% on the week and some regional names down as much as 5-6%. The big banks fell with overall markets, although Bank of America/Merrill Lynch piled on some extra weight in a note on Friday. BoA/Merrill said it expects subdued client activity and geo-political risks to weigh on Q1 earnings of large banks and does not expect seasonal improvement as strong as seen in the past. The analyst downgraded shares of Citigroup and Goldman Sachs. Regional names were lead lower by Fifth Third, which said the SEC has subpoenaed information on commercial loan accounting and reporting matters. Little was disclosed about the particulars of the SEC investigation, and shares of Fifth Third fell more than 6% on the week. More details on the overhaul of the US mortgage market have been trickling out. This week there were reports that regulators will require 20% down payment for qualified residential mortgages as part of the changes. To the north, Canadian banks TD Bank and Royal Bank of Canada both reported very strong fourth quarter results.
- Deal flows were pretty thin this week. In his annual letter to shareholders, Warren Buffett said he was getting ready for another "elephant-sized" transaction, although he gave no clues as to what sort of game he was hunting. Hospital owner Ventas said it would buy Nationwide Health Properties Inc. in a $5.8B deal, creating the nation's largest health care real-estate investment trust. Shareholders of J. Crew Group approved a buyout by the TPG/Leonard Green consortium at $43.50 a share. The board of Family Dollar Stores said that Trian's $55-60/share going private proposal substantially undervalues the company.
- The February same-store sales were mostly better than expected, although nearly all retailers warned that March and April comps would be distorted by the very late Easter holiday this Spring. Department stores had a very good month, with JC Penny, Macy's, Kohls, and higher-end names Nordstrom and Saks all pushing same-store sales gains into the high single digits, beating expectations. Regional department store names Dillards, Stage Stores, and Bon-Ton fell into negative comps. Among apparel companies, The Limited continues to be the real standout name, reporting its second consecutive month of double-digit comp store gains. Among the broadline names, Target disappointed expectations for the third consecutive month, although comps are still in positive territory. Costco and BJ's disclosed strong Feb comps with their quarterly results. Note that teen apparel retailers Abercrombie & Fitch, American Eagle Outfitters and Aeropostale have discontinued reporting monthly comps, effective this month.
- Government fixed income markets spent much of the first half of the week in a holding pattern as traders braced for the ECB rate decision and the US employment report. Prices entered the week consolidating gains, much of which had been fueled by safe haven flows in response to Libyan unrest. Prices sold off aggressively following Trichet's big hint on rate hikes. The yield on the 2-year German shatz shot up more than 20 basis points to end the week above 1.75%. The US 10-year yield ran up toward 3.6% before the solid US Feb jobs report undershot ever hopeful expectations. Prices subsequently firmed sending the benchmark yield back below 3.5%. The US 2-year note rallied even more pushing the 2-10 spread back above 280 basis points. The spread between German and US 2-year paper now stands near 108 basis points. With ECB ready to tighten, US 2012 fed fund futures rallied after the jobs report, paring back expectations for Fed rate hikes into the middle of next year. The US 10-year TIPS breakeven spread remains just above 250 basis points, suggesting longer term inflation expectations remain fairly stable.
- The greenback continued to weaken against major pairs this week as the technical picture went from bad to worse and oil prices stayed high. Inflation is becoming the central preoccupation in the eurozone, made all the more urgent by higher y/y CPI data out of Germany and France last week. On Tuesday the EU Commission bumped up GDP and inflation projections for 2011. The ECB took no action at the March policy meeting, as expected, but at the post-decision press conference ECB President Jean Claude Trichet said outright that rates may rise at the April meeting. Trichet omitted his usual statement that rates were "appropriate" and warned that risks to the inflation outlook have moved to the upside and that strong vigilance was warranted. EUR/USD entered the week around 1.3750, surged to fresh four-month highs above 1.3970 during the press conference and ended the week just shy of 1.4000 after the US employment data.
- Higher oil prices kept the dollar from racking up flight-to-safety gains again this week even as USD/CHF posted fresh historic lows below 0.9230. Even the better-than-expected ADP employment data on Wednesday was largely ignored. A widely read WSJ opinion piece asserted that the dollar was losing its dominant reserve currency status, providing a backdrop for the greenback's dismal performance. The currency wars are not helping the dollar's position, as emerging market nations work furiously to slow the appreciation of their currencies; BRIC countries buy dollars to weaken home currencies and then purchase euros to manage the resulting reserves. This dynamic has also helped push EUR/USD out to four-month highs. The ugly technical picture has led to some speculation that a there could be a coordinated response if FX markets move into 'disruptive and disorderly' territory. Meanwhile an ECB rate hike could only worsen the debt scenario for the likes of Portugal and Spain even as Ireland and Greece are struggling to cope with the terms of their bailouts.
- In other FX news, GBP/USD got a lift from European CPI concerns, and Bank of England Deputy Governor Bean's comments on Friday that inflation was too high and that the next MPC vote would depend on the performance of economic data. GBP/USD fell back above the 1.63 handle after better construction PMI data. The Swiss National Bank commented that FX intervention was not needed despite the strong CHF since deflationary pressures were not being seen. The yen was softer against major currencies, with EUR/JPY at four-month highs above 115.30. The loonie benefited from a strong December Canada GDP reading, pushing out to fresh three-year highs against the greenback. The Canadian central bank left rates unchanged at 1.00%, as expected. The Russian Central Bank (CBR) widened the ruble trading band to 5 from 4 against the USD. Recall that last week dealers were saying that recent dollar softness might prompt the CBR to adjust the trading band.
- In China top political bodies met this week to lay out the nation's new five-year plan. Officials indicated that the new economic roadmap will steer China towards an economy with a greater emphasis on services and less accent on manufacturing for export. The government also demonstrated its unease over the potential for spreading unrest and rising prices. On Monday Premier Wen reduced China's annual GDP target for the next five years to +7% from +8% prior, stating that "rapid price rises have affected the lives of the people and even social stability... We definitely can contain inflation." On Sunday regional authorities had been bracing for demonstrations for a more open government, with plans for protests in Beijing, Shanghai and other cities. As it turned out, there were more journalists and police in attendance than demonstrators. Drought conditions are easing in the north, with an estimated 5.8M hectares now impacted, down from 6.8M hectares on Feb 10th.
Week of 3/7/2011 thru 3/11/2011
Monday, March 07, 2011
Economic
08:30 Canada Jan Building Permits
11:30 US Treasury's 3- and 6-month bill auction
15:00 US Jan Consumer Credit
Tuesday, March 08, 2011
Economic
08:15 Canada Feb Housing Starts
10:00 US March Feb IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism
11:30 US Treasury's 1-month and 1-year bill auction
13:00 US Treasury's 3-year note auction
16:30 API Crude Oil/Gasoline/Distillate Inventories
Wednesday, March 09, 2011
Economic
10:00 US Jan Wholesale Inventories
10:30 DoE Crude Oil/Gasoline/Distillate Inventories
13:00 US Treasury's 10-year note auction
Thursday, March 10, 2011
Economic
08:30 US Jan Trade Balance, Canada Jan Trade Balance Initial Jobless Claims, Continuing Claims
10:30 DoE Natural Gas Inventories
13:00 US Treasury's 30-year bond auction
14:00 US Feb Budget Statement
Friday, March 11, 2011
Economic
07:00 Canada Feb Employment
08:30 US Feb Retail Sales
09:55 US March University of Michigan Confidence
10:00 US Jan Business Inventories
Please read our disclaimer:
Trading has large potential rewards, but also large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the markets. The videos are neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures or options. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Rule 4.41 - Hypothetical or simulated performance results have certain limitations. Unlike an actual performance record, simulated results do not represent actual trading. Also, since the trades have not been executed, the results may have under-or-over compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profit or losses similar to those shown. Learn to trade futures forex stocks.
08:30 US Feb Nonfarm Payrolls, Feb Unemployment Rate, Feb Manufacturing Payrolls, Feb Average Hourly Earnings
10:00 US Jan Factory Orders
15:00 US Jan Consumer Credit
Todays Headlines
8:30:02 AM
*(US) INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS: 368K V 395KE (lowest since May 2008); CONTINUING CLAIMS: 3.774M V 3.815ME (lowest since Oct 2008)
- Prior Initial Jobless Claims revised lower from 391K to 388K
- Prior Continuing Claims revised higher from 3.790M to 3.833M
8:32:02 AM
(EU) ECB's Trichet: "Strong vigilance" is warranted in monitoring inflation situation; omits usual opening statement that "rates are appropriate" - prepared remarks
- Risks to the medium-term inflation outlook are tilted to the upside, sees inflation rising on higher commodity prices. (slightly new stance for Trichet)
- Warns that inflation expectations must remain firmly anchored. ECB will act in a timely manner to ensure price stability.
- Rise in commodity prices could undermine economic growth. Sees particular upside risks to inflation outlook from energy and commodity prices.
- Notes that monetary analysis indicates that inflation pressure will remain contained over the medium terms.
9:44:03 AM
(BR) Brazil Fin Mantega: GDP data was within expectations, robust market and foreign investment are major factors in GDP growth
- Reaffirms 2011 GDP expectation at 4.5-5%
- Exchange rate is a concern; inflation is under control and slowing down.
- Expects the federal transfer to the Brazil National Development Bank (BNDES) to be lower in 2012
- Notes that high oil prices do not impact the Brazilian economy directly.
10:31:33 AM
IMF: Very concerned about higher global food prices; oil prices are a greater threat to growth than inflation if they remain elevated for a long period
- Does not see inflation as a concern for the United States.
- Not holding discussions with Portugal in regards to emergency funds.
- Confident that the EU will solve its debt crisis by the end of March.
- Expects to cut New Zealand 2011 GDP forecast due to earthquake
10:32:13 AM
(CZ) Czech Republic Central Bank's Singer: Economy in good shape to return to strong growth path
- Seeing cost inflation increasing yet somewhat offset by recent FX gains
- Calls the crown near to its long term trend even in light of recent FX appreciation
11:02:54 AM
NY Fed: Purchased $7.24B in outright coupon purchase; dealers submitted $21.66B for consideration (bid to cover 2.99)
- Avg bid to cover over prior four auctions is: 4.47
- Heaviest purchase $1.21B in the 05/15/18 maturity (earliest dated)
Please read our disclaimer:
Trading has large potential rewards, but also large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the markets. The videos are neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures or options. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Rule 4.41 - Hypothetical or simulated performance results have certain limitations. Unlike an actual performance record, simulated results do not represent actual trading. Also, since the trades have not been executed, the results may have under-or-over compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profit or losses similar to those shown. Learn to trade futures forex stocks.
08:30 US Q4 Productivity, Q4 Unit Labor Costs, Initial Jobless Claims, Continuing Claims
10:00 US Feb ISM Non-Manufacturing*, Canada Feb Ivey PMI
10:30 DoE Natural Gas Inventories
11:00 US Treasury's bill announcement
*Note that the Feb ISM indices may be delayed
Todays Headlines
6:43:14 AM
JPMorgan upgrades Semiconductor Sector to Constructive from Cautious
- ONNN, TXN, XLNX raised to Overweight from Neutral
- ONNN price target $14
- TXN price target $44
- XLNX price target $40
7:00:03 AM
*(US) MBA MORTGAGE APPLICATIONS W/E FEB 25TH: -6.5% V +13.2% PRIOR
- Refi's: +6.5% v +17.8% prior.
- Avg Rate on 30y mortgage: 4.84% v 5.0% prior.
- Purchase Index: (Seasonally adj): -6.1% v +5.1% prior
8:06:50 AM
(US) Fed's Hoenig: Still opposes monetary policy at the zero bound, reiterates that the Fed needs to move away from crisis-oriented monetary policy
- Reiterates that the 'extended period' language should be dropped sooner rather than later.
- Supports moving fed funds rate to 1% and then pausing. Insists that 1% rates is still "easy policy."
- Believes markets would benefit from higher rates.
8:33:16 AM
(LB) Libya's Gaddafi: If Libya remains unstable it could threaten gas lines in the Mediterranean and regional stability
- Comments that he will not allow the US to take Libya's oil, and will give 'hell' to the NATO and US if they enter the country
10:01:06 AM
(PD) Polish Central Bank Gov Belka: Jan rate hike helped to lower risk of subbornly high CPI - Post Rate Decision Press Conference
- Low wage pressure and rising unemployment rate reduce CPI risk
- Economic growth might increase CPI and wage pressures
- Economic recovery and high CPI might require further monetary tightening
11:04:06 AM
NY Fed: Purchased $6.69B in outright coupon purchase; dealers submitted $32.15B for consideration (bid to cover 4.81)
- Avg bid to cover over prior four auctions is: 5.01
- Heaviest purchase $4.89B in the 02/29/16 maturity
Please read our disclaimer:
Trading has large potential rewards, but also large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the markets. The videos are neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures or options. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Rule 4.41 - Hypothetical or simulated performance results have certain limitations. Unlike an actual performance record, simulated results do not represent actual trading. Also, since the trades have not been executed, the results may have under-or-over compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profit or losses similar to those shown. Learn to trade futures forex stocks.
“Make it a rule of life never to regret and never to look back. Regret is an appalling waste of energy; you can't build on it; it's only for wallowing in.”
07:30 US Feb Challenger Job Cuts
08:15 US Feb ADP Employment Change
10:30 DoE Crude Oil/Gasoline/Distillate Inventories
14:00 Fed Beige Book
Todays Headlines
8:30:16 AM
*(BR) BRAZIL JAN TOTAL OUTSTANDING LOANS (BRL): 1.715T V 1.703T PRIOR; PRIVATE BANKS LENDING: 993.0B V 987B PRIOR
- Prior Total Outstanding Loans revised from 1.703T to 1.705T
- Prior Bank lending revised from 987B to 988B
9:00:01 AM
*(CA) BANK OF CANADA (BOC) LEAVES INTEREST RATE UNCHANGED AT 1.00%; AS EXPECTED
- Any further reduction in monetary policy stimulus would need to be carefully considered
- Inflation consistant with expectations
- Underlying pressures affecting prices remain subdued, reflecting the considerable slack in the economy.
- Canadian economy recovering faster than expected but global risks remain elevated
9:49:52 AM
(NZ) Fonterra Global Dairy Trade auction: Milk product prices +5.9% from prior auction on Feb 15
- Average winning auction price $4,826/metric ton (new record high) v $4,540/metric ton prior (record high)
- Whole milk powder +9.6%
- Anhydrous milk fat +1.1%
10:27:58 AM
(US) Treasury Sec Geithner: housing market still in a difficult situation; housing demand remains too weak
- Reiterates will take a long time for housing market to be fully restored, housing demand remains weak even as the economic recovery continues.
- Loss estimates for Fannie and Freddie are falling
- Under any proposal for reforming the GSEs, the cost of mortgages will be higher.
10:00:40 AM
(US) Fed Chairman Bernanke: Sustained rise in oil and commodity prices could damage the economic recovery; price expectations remain low currently - prepared remarks
- Sees FY11 inflation around +1.25-1.75% (v 1.3-1.7% staff forecast given Feb 16th), sees FY12-FY13 inflation around +1-2%.
- The recent uptick in prices should only boost US inflation modestly.
- Seeing evidence of a sustainable recovery in business spending and consumer purchases, still need stronger job creation to create a full economic recovery.
11:02:55 AM
NY Fed: Purchased $1.89B in outright coupon purchase; dealers submitted $7.51B for consideration (bid to cover 3.97)
- Avg bid to cover over prior four auctions is: 5.2
- Heaviest purchase $359M in the 05/15/40 maturity
- Purchased maturities dated 08/15/2028 - 02/15/2041
12:13:42 PM
(US) Fed's Bernanke: Fed policy does not debase the USD; reiterates continuous review of QE2, not seeing any evidence of asset bubbles - Q&A
- It is not practical to return to the gold standard.
- Fed is committed to not letting inflation rise above 2%.
Please read our disclaimer:
Trading has large potential rewards, but also large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the markets. The videos are neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures or options. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Rule 4.41 - Hypothetical or simulated performance results have certain limitations. Unlike an actual performance record, simulated results do not represent actual trading. Also, since the trades have not been executed, the results may have under-or-over compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profit or losses similar to those shown. Learn to trade futures forex stocks.
SchoolOfTrade.com and United Business Servicing, Inc. are not registered investment or trading advisers. The services and content provided by SchoolOfTrade.com and United Business Servicing, Inc. are for educational purposes only, and should not be considered investment advice in any way. U.S. Government Required Disclaimer - Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Futures and Options trading have large potential rewards, but also large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the futures and options markets. Don't trade with money you can't afford to lose. This is neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures or options. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed on this web site. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results. cftc rule 4.41. These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or-over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown. Testimonials may not be representative of the experience of other clients. Testimonials are not a guarantee of future performance or success. No compensation is ever paid in exchange for any testimonials. Testimonials have not been independently verified.
