09:55 US June Final University of Michigan Confidence
10:00 US June ISM Manufacturing, ISM Prices Paid , Construction Spending
Todays Headlines
9:23:07 AM
(GR) German Finance Ministry confirms reaches agreement with banks on Greek aid program for €10B
- Private sector involvement was always a necessity
- Greek debt maturing by 2014 at least will be rolled over
- 55% of Greek debt held by German institutes mature after 2020
9:45:01 AM
*(US) JUN CHICAGO PURCHASING MANAGER: 61.1 V 54.0E
**Sub-indices:
- Prices Paid: 70.5 v 78.6 prior (lowest since Nov 2010)
- New Orders: 61.2 v 53.5 prior
10:00:31 AM
(US) Fed's Bullard: QE2 was implemented to prevent a Japan-style crisis in the US economy; effects of QE2 are lagging implementation by 6 to 12 months
- QE2 program shows that the Fed is able to effectively conduct monetary stabilization with rates near the zero bound.
- Notes that markets priced in QE2 before the official announcement of the program last November; markets are still high compared to levels seen before QE2
11:01:59 AM
NY Fed: Purchased $4.91B in outright coupon purchase; dealers submitted $12.47B for consideration (bid to cover 2.54)
- Heaviest purchase was $4.4B in the 06/30/18 maturity (longest dated)
- Purchased maturities dated 12/31/2016 - 06/30/2018
12:07:42 PM
New York to remove the temporary ban on hydraulic fracturing - world press
- Reminder: NY State Assembly passed five month moratorium on hydraulic fracturing ('fracking') on 11/30 2010; and was to allow further study of the practice and its effects on the environment.
Please read our disclaimer:
Trading has large potential rewards, but also large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the markets. The videos are neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures or options. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Rule 4.41 - Hypothetical or simulated performance results have certain limitations. Unlike an actual performance record, simulated results do not represent actual trading. Also, since the trades have not been executed, the results may have under-or-over compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profit or losses similar to those shown. Learn to trade futures forex stocks.
08:30 Canada April GDP, Initial Jobless Claims, Continuing Claims
09:45 US June Chicago PMI
10:00 US June NAPM Milwaukee
10:30 DoE Natural Gas Inventories
Todays Headlines
8:46:08 AM
(GR) Institute of International Finance (IIF)
: There is support for various programs to help solve the Greece debt crisis
- Sees more interest in a larger solution to the issues (including debt buybacks), there is a possibility that countries outside the EU may purchase Greece bonds
- Notes that ratings agencies should not be part of the process in determining options
10:00:26 AM
(US) IMF: US growth seen under 3.0% for the next half decade; Debt ceiling should be raised quickly to avoid severe shock to economy - annual review on US economy
- Forecasts 2012-13 GDP growth at 2.7%
- Downside risks to US economy have increased with Housing, unemployment and fiscal problems
- US is losing fiscal credibility would be extremely damaging as deficit plans do too much at first and too little later on.
11:01:25 AM
(SZ) Switzerland Econ Min: Govt not responsible for handling the Franc, it is the job of the SNB; comfortable companies can handle the higher Franc
- Recent appreciation in the Franc is not temporary; franc unlikely to decline to levels seen 2 years ago
11:02:09 AM
NY Fed: Purchased $2.45B in outright coupon purchase; dealers submitted $7.57B for consideration (bid to cover 3.08)
- Heaviest purchase was $555M in the 05/15/30 maturity
- Purchased maturities dated 08/15/2028 - 05/15/2041
11:41:08 AM
(US) President Obama: Calls on Congress to pass pending legislation that would help create jobs; deficit negotiations have identified $1T in spending cuts
- Pending bills cited by the president includes three free trade agreements, legislation on patents and funding for construction projects.
- Entitlement spending must also be dealt with, although essential programs must be left alone.
Please read our disclaimer:
Trading has large potential rewards, but also large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the markets. The videos are neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures or options. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Rule 4.41 - Hypothetical or simulated performance results have certain limitations. Unlike an actual performance record, simulated results do not represent actual trading. Also, since the trades have not been executed, the results may have under-or-over compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profit or losses similar to those shown. Learn to trade futures forex stocks.
07:00 Canada May CPI
10:00 US May Pending Home Sales
10:30 DoE Crude Oil/Gasoline/Distillate Inventories
13:00 US Treasury's 7-year note auction
Todays Headlines
7:42:26 AM
(EU) Approximately 15% of EBA stress tested banks are expected to fail the measures - financial press citing sources
- 15 of the estimated 91 banks may fail
9:00:06 AM
(US) April S&P/CaseShiller Composite-20 M/M: -0.09% v -0.20%e; Y/Y: -3.96% v -3.95%e; Home Price Index: 138.84 v 137.93 prior
- prior Composite-20 M/M revised from -0.23% to -3.77%
- prior Y/Y revised from -3.61% to -3.77%
- prior Home Price Index: revised from 138.16 to 137.93
9:31:40 AM
(US) June Conference Board Consumer confidence 58.5 v 61e (lowest since Nov 2010)
- Prior revised higher from 60.8 to 61.7
- Note: Unclear if embargo broken on June consumer confidence originally scheduled for 10:00ET
11:02:14 AM
NY Fed: Purchased $4.62B in outright coupon purchase; dealers submitted $17.89B for consideration (bid to cover 3.87)
- Heaviest purchase was $2.09B in the 11/15/18 maturity
- Purchased maturities dated 08/15/2018 - 05/15/2021
11:03:28 AM
LCH Clearnet raises margin requirements on Portugal and Ireland bonds, effective June 29
- Portugal margin charge to 80% from 65% prior
- Ireland margin to 80% from 75% prior
Please read our disclaimer:
Trading has large potential rewards, but also large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the markets. The videos are neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures or options. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Rule 4.41 - Hypothetical or simulated performance results have certain limitations. Unlike an actual performance record, simulated results do not represent actual trading. Also, since the trades have not been executed, the results may have under-or-over compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profit or losses similar to those shown. Learn to trade futures forex stocks.
09:00 US April S&P/CS Home Price Index, April S&P/CS Composite-20
10:00 US June Consumer Confidence, June Richmond Fed Index
11:30 US Treasury's 1-month and 1-year bill auction
13:00 US Treasury's 5-year note auction
16:30 API Crude Oil/Gasoline/Distillate Inventories
Todays Headlines
7:28:21 AM
Oppenheimer making positive comments on Rental Stocks
- Firms Rental Services subsector (URI, RRR, MGRC, MINI, ESSX, ARC, RBA), which delivered strong aggregate stock returns in 2010/1Q11, retrenched in Q211 despite operations broadly remaining healthy.
8:54:12 AM
(FR) France Debt Agency (AFT) sells approx €7.0B vs. €7.0B indicated in 3-month, 4-month and 6-month Bills
- Sells €4.5B in 3-month Bills; Yield 1.161%
- Sells €1.0B in 4-month Bills; Yield 1.205
- Sells €1.51B in 6-month Bills; Yield 1.258%
10:28:48 AM
*(IS) ISRAEL CENTRAL BANK INTEREST RATE LEAVES THE BASE RATE UNCHANGED AT 3.25%; AS EXPECTED
- Forecasts interest rate to around 4.1% in one year.
- Sees inflation expectations dropping within the 1-3% target range by Q1 2012.
11:01:53 AM
(GR) France Govt proposes a special vehicle for debt rollover of bonds due from 2011 to 2014 (update) - financial press citing sources
- Aims for half of proceeds from bonds to be reinvested in Greece bonds with 30 year maturity, 20% of other proceeds to be invested in high quality assets
- Vehicle would be controlled by private entities to manage high quality assets and the Greece bonds
10:42:33 AM
(US) Fed's Kocherlakota: Excessive leverage keeps the country vulnerable to shocks, tax incentives must geared towards investments that do no encourage debt
- Notes that the mortgage interest deduction in the tax code hurts financial stability
- Calls for lawmakers to lower subsidies in the tax code that act to increase leverage within the system
- Dodd Frank legislation assists financial stability but more is needed
Please read our disclaimer:
Trading has large potential rewards, but also large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the markets. The videos are neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures or options. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Rule 4.41 - Hypothetical or simulated performance results have certain limitations. Unlike an actual performance record, simulated results do not represent actual trading. Also, since the trades have not been executed, the results may have under-or-over compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profit or losses similar to those shown. Learn to trade futures forex stocks.
" Television has done much for psychiatry by spreading information about it, as well as contributing to the need for it.”
Market Week Wrap-Up
- Global equity markets racked up solid gains in the first two days of trading this week as Greece and its European partners made constructive steps toward releasing the next tranche of emergency funding and no negative data got in the way. However the bounce was not built to last, as an economic downgrade from the Federal Reserve and some poor overseas economic data knocked over markets again mid week. During Wednesday's FOMC decision, the Fed acknowledged growth has slowed and labor market improvement has been slower than expected, due in part to commodity inflation and supply chain issues from the Japan disaster. The Fed cut its GDP forecasts, and now sees 2011 GDP +2.7-2.9% versus 3.1-3.3% prior. In his post-decision press conference, Chairman Bernanke warned that the Fed doesn't have "a precise read" on why slower growth is persisting, but stuck with forecasts for economic improvement in the second half of this year. Then on Thursday, poor showings in preliminary June PMI indices in France, Germany and the euro zone, plus the weak HSBC flash China PMI for June drove flight to safety trading, and the IEA surprised the energy market by authorizing a 60M barrel release from global oil reserves into the market. There was little in the way of consequential US economic numbers out this week, although the May durables data was very strong, with the headline figure solidly positive after April's -2.7% slide. In addition, the April figures were revised higher. For the week the S&P lost 0.25%, the Dow gave back 0.6% while the NASDQ gained 1.4%.
- Crude prices took another big step down this week after the International Energy Agency (IEA) announced that it would coordinate the release of 60M barrels of oil from global reserves, half of which will come from the US SPR. The official rationale was the need to make up for the gap left by the collapse in Libya oil production, however many analysts saw more immediate economic needs behind the move, which was only the third time in the IEA's history it has coordinated a big release. The release was said to be targeted at Brent crude prices, which have been particularly sensitive to the loss of Libyan light sweet crude, and ended the week down seven percent at around $105/barrel. Meanwhile NYMEX crude has been below $100 since OPEC member states clashed over whether or not to raise production at their conclave in early June, which ended with Saudi Arabia's unilateral pledge to ramp up production to meet second half 2011 demand. After the IEA announcement the front-month contract briefly dipped below $90 and finished out the week just a hair above $91.
- Ahead of the impending earnings season, FedEx provided a key bellwether for the economy and corporate America with the release of its quarterly report. FedEx's Q4 results were solid, with healthy top- and bottom-line growth that modestly exceeded expectations. In addition, the firm offered robust 2012 guidance. Profit margins showed healthy gains, and package volume growth, while not outstanding, are still holding up. Walgreen's met expectations in its Q3 report, although it was the company's announcement that it would drop out of Express Scripts' pharmacy provider network in 2012 that made headlines. Walgreens said that Express Scripts insisted on being able to unilaterally define contract terms, claiming Express Scripts' had proposed generic reimbursement rates that were well below market rates and the industry average. Shares of semiconductor name Micron cratered after the firm missed revenue targets and reported less than half of the expected quarterly profits in its Q4 report. As PC sales have slowed this spring, Micron's memory business has taken it on the chin. Note that there was a Digitimes report asserting that United Microelectronics and Taiwan Semi have seen clients cut back on wafer starts amid weaker than expected demand for handsets and tablets. Disappointing results for Oracle's hardware segment drove its stock lower on Friday, dragging the Nasdaq down with it, despite strong growth in its core software products.
- It was more of the same for trading in fixed income markets this week. Consternation surrounding Greece and possible contagion coupled with some disappointing economic readings pushed money into the relative safety of US, German, and UK government bond markets while holding back corporate issuance. Chairman Bernanke solidified the sentiment when he noted part of the recent soft patch may be attributable to longer lasting factors like weakness in the financial sector, deleveraging, and the hobbled housing market. The benchmark US 10-year yield declined more than 15 basis points on the week to finish below 2.9% for the first time since November. Bund prices rose even faster pushing the German 10-year rate down to 2.83%. Lipper reported junk bond outflows for the latest week reached the highest level since 1992. US inflation expectations have retreated pushing the 5-year TIPS breakeven below 2.2%.
- Political wrangling in Greece continued apace this week, as domestic political forces maneuvered to meet European conditions for the payment of the next bailout tranche. The current socialist government (Pasok party) survived a no-confidence vote in parliament on Wednesday. After the vote passed, focus shifted immediately to next week's vote on the Greek government's five-year austerity plan which must pass as a condition of receiving more aid. The package is deeply divisive and several ruling party MPs came out against the measures, making many wonder whether government will be able to pass the legislation. Furthermore, there were reports questioning whether a good portion of the pledged €6.8B in austerity measures was viable in the first place. Greece's partners attempted various tactics to sooth deepening default concerns. Funding guarantees pledged to the EFSF backstop fund were increased 160%, to €780B from €440B prior, and European finance ministers worked furiously in the background to iron out details of a second bailout package. But as has been made clear in recent weeks, private sector participation is critical in bailout part two and uncertainty about rolling over private debt instruments in such as way to avoid a 'credit event' remains a major source of discomfort. Late in the week individual euro zone governments began releasing some details about how their banks would handle the procedure. Various alarm bells were ringing as contagion began to be seen in the European financial system. Dealers were unsettled when the ECB's seven-day main refi operation had a large take of €187B, raising concerns that someone out there needs a whole lot more liquidly. At one point on Friday the outright Portugal 10-year bond was at post-EMU highs above 11.20%.
- In the UK, BoE governor Fisher reiterated that more quantitative easing was still very much on the table as a possible policy action. GBP/USD tested 1.6165 on the remark. The MPC minutes released this week noted that the UK growth outlook had weakened and some members raised the possibility of more QE if downside risks materialized. GBP/USD again tested below 1.6150 in the aftermath of the minutes, but remained above the pivotal 1.6090 daily H&S pattern neckline. The pair was probing below 1.60 handle for the first time since April 1st, with many analyst looking for a sub 1.55 target. EUR/CHF cross highlighted continuing doubts about Europe, and the pair moved back below the 1.20 handle towards historic lows on uncertainty surrounding Greece's austerity measures.
- The People's Bank of China held off on another rate hike this week, narrowing the central bank's window to preserve the eight-month pattern of tightening its key one-year policy rates every other month. A Friday op/ed piece in the FT penned by Chinese Premier Wen suggested the PBoC may be ready to de-escalate its policy action. Wen wrote that price levels are now within a range that can be controlled and should decline steadily. More evidence of a decelerating economic recovery in China could also explain increased caution from the monetary authorities, as flash HSBC manufacturing PMI for June fell to 50.1 - within a decimal of non-expansion and a new 11-month low. In turn, the Shanghai Composite broke from the late-week selloff in equities in Europe and the US ending the week up 4% - giving the index its first triple-digit weekly point gain since last November.
- The Reserve Bank of Australia released policy meeting minutes that confirmed the central bank does not see any urgent need to resume tightening. The RBA noted it would be prudent to hold rates pending data on domestic demand, inflation and global events, as policymakers appear keen to wait for a resolution in Greece as well as the release of quarterly inflation data late next month. The AUD once again tested below $1.05, a one-month low.
Week of 6/27/2011 thru 7/1/2011
Monday, June 27, 2011
Economic
08:30 US May Personal Income, May Personal Spending, May PCE Core
10:30 US June Dallas Fed Manufacturing
11:30 US Treasury's 3- and 6-month bill auction
13:00 US Treasury's 2-year note auction
Tuesday, June 28, 2011
Economic
09:00 US April S&P/CS Home Price Index, April S&P/CS Composite-20
10:00 US June Consumer Confidence, June Richmond Fed Index
11:30 US Treasury's 1-month and 1-year bill auction
13:00 US Treasury's 5-year note auction
16:30 API Crude Oil/Gasoline/Distillate Inventories
Wednesday, June 29, 2011
Economic
07:00 Canada May CPI
10:00 US May Pending Home Sales
10:30 DoE Crude Oil/Gasoline/Distillate Inventories
13:00 US Treasury's 7-year note auction
Thursday, June 30, 2011
Economic
08:30 Canada April GDP, Initial Jobless Claims, Continuing Claims
09:45 US June Chicago PMI
10:00 US June NAPM Milwaukee
10:30 DoE Natural Gas Inventories
Friday, July 01, 2011
Economic
09:55 US June Final University of Michigan Confidence
10:00 US June ISM Manufacturing, ISM Prices Paid , Construction Spending
Please read our disclaimer:
Trading has large potential rewards, but also large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the markets. The videos are neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures or options. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Rule 4.41 - Hypothetical or simulated performance results have certain limitations. Unlike an actual performance record, simulated results do not represent actual trading. Also, since the trades have not been executed, the results may have under-or-over compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profit or losses similar to those shown. Learn to trade futures forex stocks.
08:30 US Final Q1 GDP, Q1 GDP Price Index, Q1 Core PCE, Q1 Personal Consumption, May Durable Goods Orders
Todays Headlines
6:29:14 AM
(IR) S&P Downgrades Anglo Irish Bank rating to by 1 notch to 'CCC' from 'CCC+'; Negative Outlook
- The rating action reflects the opinion that the Irish government has a clearly stated preference to impose losses on Anglo's senior unsecured and unguaranteed debt holders to minimize any further capital support beyond the capital it has already provided.
6:59:49 AM
*(TU) TURKEY CENTRAL BANK LEAVES THE BENCHMARK REPO RATE UNCHANGED AT 6.25%; AS EXPECTED
- Tracking impact of recent measures
- Employment returns to pre-crisis levels
- Jun inflation to slow to forecasts; Core inflation to accelerate
8:30:03 AM
*(US) INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS: 429K V 415KE; CONTINUING CLAIMS: 3.697M V 3.67ME
- Prior Initial Jobless Claims revised higher from 414K to 420K
- Prior Continuing Claims revised higher from 3.675M to 3.698M
9:53:32 AM
(US) Senior White House official: First consultation on oil situation was on April 26th (i.e. before the June OPEC meeting), IEA release was justified due to supply disruption from Libya - CNBC Liesman
- Saw supply disruption as larger than that of Hurricane Katrina, the last time the oil was released.
- Saudi Arabia and other Gulf countries expected to raise production by 1.5M bpd.
10:03:35 AM
(US) House Majority Leader Cantor (R-VA): Negotiations between Congress and Vice President Biden over budget deficit issue have reached an impasse over tax issues; claims is leaving the talks
- Calls on House Speaker Boehner (R-OH) and President Obama to negotiatate a final solution.
Please read our disclaimer:
Trading has large potential rewards, but also large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the markets. The videos are neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures or options. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Rule 4.41 - Hypothetical or simulated performance results have certain limitations. Unlike an actual performance record, simulated results do not represent actual trading. Also, since the trades have not been executed, the results may have under-or-over compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profit or losses similar to those shown. Learn to trade futures forex stocks.
08:30 US May Chicago Fed NAI, Initial Jobless Claims, Continuing Claims
10:00 US May New Home Sales
10:30 DoE Natural Gas Inventories
11:00 US Treasury note announcement
13:00 US Treasury's 30-year TIPS auction
Todays Headlines
8:00:04 AM
*(NO) NORWAY CENTRAL BANK (NORGES) LEAVES THE DEPOSIT RATES UNCHANGED AT 2.25%; AS EXPECTED
- Projections in monetary policy suggest interest rates be raised gradually through Autumn
- Rate Path could rise sooner than previously expected
- Global economic outlook appears to be more uncertain despite recent strength
9:17:31 AM
(FR) French Nuclear Safety Authority (Autorite de Securite Nucleaire) denies any incidents at French nuclear facilities
- EDF also denies rumors of leak at French nuclear plant today. Notes there was a minor incident at Paluel Reactor #3 in April that caused an internal breach in waterproofing, but there was no external leakage.
9:37:03 AM
(FR) France Min: Country has the right to claim an ECB Board seat once Draghi is appointed to head the central bank
**Reminder: On Jun 16th Italy PM Berlusconi: Gov't asked ECB member Bini Smaghi to resign from central bank board.
-The move would be in line with speculation if Draghi becones the head of the ECB
- On May 31st: The) ECB stated that it saw Bini Smaghi serving his full 8 year term, and would oppose any efforts that seek to remove Bini Smaghi in light of Draghi's expected appointment as Chief
10:07:04 AM
*(US) APR HOUSE PRICE INDEX M/M: +0.8% V -0.3%E
- Prior MoM revised to -0.4% from -0.3% prior
- 12 months through April 2011: US home prices -5.7%
12:27:04 PM
*FOMC HOLDS FED FUNDS RATE TARGET AT 0.25% (AS EXPECTED); REITERATES RATES LIKELY TO REMAIN LOW FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD
- Vote unanimous at 10-0
- Discount rate unchanged at 0.75%
Please read our disclaimer:
Trading has large potential rewards, but also large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the markets. The videos are neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures or options. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Rule 4.41 - Hypothetical or simulated performance results have certain limitations. Unlike an actual performance record, simulated results do not represent actual trading. Also, since the trades have not been executed, the results may have under-or-over compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profit or losses similar to those shown. Learn to trade futures forex stocks.
10:00 US May House Price Index
10:30 DoE Crude Oil/Gasoline/Distillate Inventories
12:30 FOMC Rate Decision
14:15 Fed Chairman Bernanke Press Conference
Todays Headlines
6:27:18 AM
(GR) Fitch provides addition insight on Greece: Restructuring or rollover of govt debt would not
automatically trigger default by the major banks
- The precise rating actions on the banks will depend on the full terms of the sovereign event and the extent to which this considers maintaining solvency and, vitally, liquidity in the Greek banking system.
- The most crucial immediate consideration for Fitch's bank ratings would be whether a mechanism would remain for ensuring that central bank liquidity continues to be provided to the Greek banks
8:15:02 AM
World Steel Association sees global May steel output 129.9M tonnes, +2.3% m/m and +4.2% y/y - Steel Business Briefing
- World Steel Association sees capacity-utilisation rate in May remained above 81% as it has been all this year.
- YTD world steel output reached 629M tonnes, +7.3% y/y.
- Compared with May last year, Chinas output last month was almost 8% higher at 60.2M tonnes There were also rises in Korea and India, but output fell year-on-year in Japan and Taiwan.
8:30:03 AM
*(CA) CANADA APR RETAIL SALES M/M: 0.3% V 0.4%E; RETAIL SALES LESS AUTOS M/M: 0.0% V 0.6%E
- Prior Retail Sales MoM revised lower from 0.0% to -0.1%
- Prior Ex Auto MoM revised lower from -0.1% to -0.2%
11:02:20 AM
NY Fed: Purchased $4.91B in outright coupon purchase; dealers submitted $12.71 for consideration (bid to cover 2.59)
- Heaviest purchase was $1.57B in the 05/31/18 maturity (longest dated)
- Purchased maturities dated 12/31/2016 - 05/31/2018
12:03:24 PM
(GR) Greece Cabinet meetings scheduled with PM Papandreou tommorow; will discuss legislation on medium term plans
- Reminder: A confidence vote is scheduled for later today, reports indicate he is expected to survive the vote
12:18:53 PM
(GR) Fitch adds on comments from last week; comments on implications for retructuring or rollover event for Greece sovereign debt
Fitch Ratings says that a restructuring or rollover event for Greek sovereign debt would not necessarily result in the agency taking further rating actions on Greek structured finance securities, but would be likely to trigger downgrades of Greek covered bond ratings.
Please read our disclaimer:
Trading has large potential rewards, but also large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the markets. The videos are neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures or options. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Rule 4.41 - Hypothetical or simulated performance results have certain limitations. Unlike an actual performance record, simulated results do not represent actual trading. Also, since the trades have not been executed, the results may have under-or-over compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profit or losses similar to those shown. Learn to trade futures forex stocks.
"The conventional view serves to protect us from the painful job of thinking.”
Market Week Wrap-Up
- Trading on global equity markets was highly volatile this week thanks to a round of soft June US manufacturing data and fears that European players had lost control of the Greek sovereign debt crisis. The June Empire Manufacturing and Philadelphia Fed reports were much weaker than expected and the former turned negative for the first time since last fall. Recall that it was poor showings in the May regional Fed surveys that helped trigger the recent sell off in stocks. Domestic political turmoil in Greece riled markets, as the position of the Greek government began to look very shaky indeed and European partners continued to quarrel over the terms of a new bailout plan. Contagion fears picked up again as analysts warned about the potential for a European 'Lehman moment' and discussed the impact of a potential default could have on the global banking system. Emblematic of market stress levels rising, the VIX index moved above the key 20 level for the first time since mid March, spiking above 24 on Thursday. Tension eased on Friday after the Germans backed away from mandatory private bondholder participation in a second Greek bailout, stemming the slide. The ailing world economy and a weaker euro crushed crude prices, as the front-month WTI contract came very close to its 2011 lows below $92 on Friday afternoon. The S&P500 avoided a seventh straight down week, finishing the week higher by less than 0.1%, while the Nasdaq continued to languish, losing 1.0%. The DJIA eked out a small gain this week, up 0.4%.
- Softness in US economic data has cast a shadow on the US economic recovery, and this week a handful of mid-level US corporations offered cloudy commentary that suggests the conditions driving the soft patch are having an impact on companies. Manufacturer Owens Illinois said that it expects Q2 earnings will be down from the prior year period due to higher costs, even as it continues to see global shipment levels higher on a y/y basis. Motor home manufacturer Winnebago released terrible Q3 results: earnings missed expectations; margins fell, total deliveries declined and the firm's backlog shrank. Winnebago's CEO warned that the company's North American business was weakening significantly. Steel Dynamics cut its profit outlook for Q2 due to the big hikes in the cost of scrap steel that have accompanied the overall commodity price rises, coupled with weaker demand. Scott's Miracle-Gro cut its FY11 profit guidance, citing the challenges of unfavorable weather in most of the United States. The capstone on a bad week of earnings was Research-In-Motion's horrendous Q1 report, slashing guidance for the rest of the year as Blackberry smartphone sales lost more ground to iPhone and Android. RIM shares lost 20% on Friday as shareholders fled the stock and Wall Street hit it with a raft of downgrades.
- The recent lull in merger news was broken by a pickup in M&A flows this week, including a flurry of deal announcements on Monday. Natural gas distributor Southern Union is getting taken out by Energy Transfer Equity for $7.9B. Transatlantic Re and Allied World agreed to a $3.2B merger of equals. VF Corporation signed a deal to acquire Timberland for $43/share in cash, in a deal worth around $2B. Wendy's/Arby's said it would sell off Arby's to private equity name Roark Capital Group for $430M. In Canada private equity firm the Maple Group launched its C$3.7B hostile offer for the Toronto Stock Exchange, looking to convince shareholders it offers a better deal than the LSE.
- Government bond markets whipsawed this week as investors continually reassessed their risk tolerance as economic data highlighted the soft patch and a deluge of Greek headlines fueled swings in sentiment. The US 10-year yield traded in a 20-basis point range before finishing the week just below 2.93% after making a fresh 2011 low. The US 2-year yield is hovering near all time lows below 0.4%.
- There were a few positive developments in the Greece story early on in the week. Euro zone finance ministers tried to hammer out a plan to keep the country from defaulting and the Greeks finalized an €80B loan extension that was discussed at the March EU summit, pushing EUR/USD out to 1.4500 or so. Contagion fears exploded on Wednesday after Moody's put three French banks on review due to their exposure to Greece, and a Spanish debt auction undersold its target. With rioters back out in the streets of Athens in force, Greek PM Papandreou tried and failed to strike a deal with the opposition to form a national unity government in order to rally flagging support for critical reforms. EUR/USD bottomed out around 1.4100 on Thursday, as Greek political in-fighting appeared to threaten a new aid agreement. The situation improved on Friday as chatter circulated that an agreement between the EU and the IMF would be announced soon. German Chancellor Merkel retreated from earlier demands that private bondholders be forced to shoulder a substantial share of a potential second Greek rescue package, opting for a form of optional debt exchange. EUR/USD closed out the week not far from where it began on Monday, around 1.4350.
- In other FX trading, the Swiss Franc maintained a firm tone and continued to hit fresh all-time highs against the Euro. The EUR/CHF breeched the 1.20 handle to trade at 1.1944 on Thursday, before retracing a bit on Friday. GBP/USD was plagued by soft economic data, including the biggest rise in unemployment claims in two years and weaker-than-expected retail sales data. GBP/USD slumped to test 1.6100 where it was displaying a three-month H&S top pattern neckline. The technical target of a sustained break would be 1.54 in the pair, although it managed to hold on towards the end of the week.
- Monthly economic metrics from China offered only temporary relief to equity markets in Asia. May CPI was in line with forecasts at 5.5% - a near three-year high, but also below some of the more dire predictions floated by government research officials. In turn, industrial production reflected strength in May imports reported last week, coming in two ticks above consensus at 13.3%. Benign Chinese data renewed chatter of a "soft landing" on the mainland, helping markets shrug off another 50bps reserve requirement ratio (RRR) hike to 21.5% by the PBoC. Investors still remain on edge for a tightening in key one-year rates expected by many to take place before the end of June, preserving the pattern of rate hikes every other month. Despite the post-data early week bounce, the Shanghai Composite finished the week at its lows below 2,650 - the lowest finish since late September of 2010 and 14% off the 2011 peak.
- In Tokyo, the Bank of Japan upgraded its assessment of the Japanese economy for the first time since the mega-quake while also announcing a new ¥500B credit line to growth industries. Additional stimulus comes on top of the ¥4T in near-zero interest rate loans offered by the central bank in the past nine months. Japan also saw continued progress in recovery from the March disaster, as Industry Minister Kaieda prepared to give the green light to operations at 35 nuclear reactors idled for a safety review following the earthquake. In addition, the president of Toyota indicated full global production would be restored by next month, well ahead of late-fall target initially estimated.
Week of 6/20/2011 thru 6/24/2011
Monday, June 20, 2011
Economic
11:30 US Treasury's 3- and 6-month bill auction
Tuesday, June 21, 2011
Economic
08:30 Canada April Retail Sales, May Leading Indicators
10:00 US May Existing Home Sales
11:30 US Treasury's 4-week bill auction
16:30 API Crude Oil/Gasoline/Distillate Inventories
Wednesday, June 22, 2011
Economic
10:00 US May House Price Index
10:30 DoE Crude Oil/Gasoline/Distillate Inventories
12:30 FOMC Rate Decision
14:15 Fed Chairman Bernanke Press Conference
Thursday, June 23, 2011
Economic
08:30 US May Chicago Fed NAI, Initial Jobless Claims, Continuing Claims
10:00 US May New Home Sales
10:30 DoE Natural Gas Inventories
11:00 US Treasury note announcement
13:00 US Treasury's 30-year TIPS auction
Friday, June 24, 2011
Economic
08:30 US Final Q1 GDP, Q1 GDP Price Index, Q1 Core PCE, Q1 Personal Consumption, May Durable Goods Orders
Please read our disclaimer:
Trading has large potential rewards, but also large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the markets. The videos are neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures or options. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Rule 4.41 - Hypothetical or simulated performance results have certain limitations. Unlike an actual performance record, simulated results do not represent actual trading. Also, since the trades have not been executed, the results may have under-or-over compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profit or losses similar to those shown. Learn to trade futures forex stocks.
09:55 US June Prelim University of Michigan Confidence
10:00 US May Leading Indicators
Todays Headlines
6:10:33 AM
(GR) A third Greek parliament member may resign - financial press citing official sources
- The Socialist MPs are to discuss of the effectiveness of the PM.
- PASOK (ruling party) MP Lintzeris calls for meeting of PASOK lawmakers
- Press reports that almost three dozen deputies wavering in support for Papandreou
8:30:03 AM
*(US) INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS: 414K V 420KE; CONTINUING CLAIMS: 3.675M V 3.67ME
- Prior Initial Jobless Claims revised higher from 427K to 430K
- Prior Continuing Claims revised higher from 3.676M to 3.696M
10:39:16 AM
(GR) IMF: A new program is not necessary for the next approval of a loan tranche; stand ready to continue Greek support
- Must receive a financing agreement from the EU for 12 month term as conditions for a loan to Greece.
- Notes that the Greece parliament must ultimately approve the next tranche of loans.
- Expect a positive outcome for Greece at the next Eurogroup meeting; Greece making progress that should ensure full financing.
11:02:54 AM
NY Fed: Purchased $4.86B in outright coupon purchase; dealers submitted $15.19B for consideration (bid to cover 3.13)
- Heaviest purchase was $3.09B in the 05/31/16 maturity
- Purchased maturities dated 06/30/2015 - 11/30/2016
11:07:04 AM
(GR) Greece PM: Calls on Greeks to refrain from blaming others for the country's problems; Have not reached an agreement on a new Greece bailout; issues have now spread and is an issue for greater EUrope
- Aiming to stick to time frame and targets that have been laid out previously.
- Main priority should be creating a primary surplus.
- Many in Greece say they do not want to lend a hand in the overall national effort.
Please read our disclaimer:
Trading has large potential rewards, but also large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the markets. The videos are neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures or options. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Rule 4.41 - Hypothetical or simulated performance results have certain limitations. Unlike an actual performance record, simulated results do not represent actual trading. Also, since the trades have not been executed, the results may have under-or-over compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profit or losses similar to those shown. Learn to trade futures forex stocks.
“It has always been the prerogative of children and half-wits to point out that the emperor has no clothes. But the half-wit remains a half-wit, and the emperor remains an emperor.”
08:30 US Q1 Current Account Balance, May Building Permits, May Housing Starts, Initial Jobless Claims, Continuing Claims
10:00 US June Philadelphia Fed
10:30 DoE Natural Gas Inventories
11:00 US Treasury's TIPS announcement
Todays Headlines
8:30:02 AM
*(US) MAY CONSUMER PRICE INDEX M/M: 0.2% V 0.1%E; CPI EX FOOD & ENERGY M/M: 0.3% V 0.2%E; CPI NSA: 224.4 V 225.55E
- CPI Y/Y: 3.6% v 3.4%e
- CPI Ex-food & Energy Y/Y: 1.5% v 1.4%e
- CPI core index NSA: 225.96 v 224.9 prior
9:15:01 AM
*(US) MAY INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION: 0.1% V 0.2%E; CAPACITY UTILIZATION: 76.7% V 77.0%E
- no revisions to Prior Industrial Production at 0.0%
- Prior Capacity Utilization revised lower from 76.9% to 76.7%
11:00:46 AM
(EU) ECB's Constancio: Fiscal reforms must be conducted to handle the debt crisis
- Have seen improvement in the EMU banking sector
- ECB is open to a Vienna type program, but nothing more; nothing will be done that causes a credit event
- Not anticipating any US default of any significant size
11:02:37 AM
NY Fed: Purchased $4.7B in outright coupon purchase; dealers submitted $16.51 for consideration (bid to cover 3.51)
- Heaviest purchase was $1.56B in the 05/31/18 maturity (longest dated)
11:19:36 AM
(NZ) Fonterra Global Dairy Trade auction: Dairy Trade price index -2.6% from prior auction on 6/1 (+4.5% prior)
- Average winning auction price $4,324/metric ton v $4,306/metric ton ton prior
- Whole milk powder +2.6% v -3% prior
- Anhydrous milk fat -5.9% v +6.2% prior
11:31:02 AM
(HU) IMF calls for Hungary to cut more spending; voices concerns about using pension assets to cover spending
- supports monetary policy stance for Hungary central bank
- Forecasts 2011 GDP at 2.8% v 2.6% prior forecast
- Forecasts 2012 GDP at 2.5% with CPI at 3.4%
Please read our disclaimer:
Trading has large potential rewards, but also large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the markets. The videos are neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures or options. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Rule 4.41 - Hypothetical or simulated performance results have certain limitations. Unlike an actual performance record, simulated results do not represent actual trading. Also, since the trades have not been executed, the results may have under-or-over compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profit or losses similar to those shown. Learn to trade futures forex stocks.
08:30 US May CPI, CPI Ex Food & Energy, CPI Core, June Empire Manufacturing, Canada April Manufacturing Shipments
09:00 US April TIC Flows
09:15 US May Industrial Production, May Capacity Utilization
10:00 US June NAHB Housing Market Index
10:30 DoE Crude Oil/Gasoline/Distillate Inventories
Todays Headlines
6:00:38 AM
*(EU) OECD APR LEADING INDICATOR: 103.0 V 103.0 PRIOR
- Leading Indicators point to "mild loss of growth momentum"
- Indicators point to below trend growth in Brazil and India.
- Sees possible moderation of activity in China.
6:58:29 AM
*(EU) ECB DRAINS €75.0B VS. €75.0B TARGETED IN 7-DAY TERM DEPOSIT TENDER
- Weighted Avg 1.20% v 0.90%
- Says 61 banks bid for total €76.7B in the operation vs. 71 bids prior
8:06:08 AM
OPEC Sec Gen: Does not expect to see crude prices to retest the 2008 record high of $147/bbl; IEA should not use strategic reserves as a "weapon" against OPEC
- If an oil shortage materializes in second half of 2011, as OPEC expects, prices will surely rise higher.
- There was no decision to increase production at recent meeting because some members were uncomfortable with the uncertain outlook.
- Does not expect to see another OPEC meeting before December.
9:09:36 AM
(EU) ECB's Draghi: ECB should adjust interest rates in a pre-emptive manner in order to avoid worsening inflation expectations - confirmation hearings
- ECB policy remains very accommodative; important for ECB to manage its exit from accommodative standard and non-standard policies.
- Euro is a credible, strong currency; non-standard measures need to be dropped when they are no longer needed.
- The euro zone debt crisis cannot get in the way of ECB mission of price stability.
10:00:42 AM
(US) FDIC Staff: Advises that final rule for capital floor for large US banks be the same as for small banks (same as initial proposal from Dec)
- A board vote on the proposal is expected shortly, rule would go into effect in 30 days following passage.
- Follow-up 10:18ET: FDIC Board approves new minimum capital levels for US banks (Collin Amendment); vote was 5-0 in favor.
11:02:31 AM
NY Fed: Purchased $3.2B in outright coupon purchase; dealers submitted $28.39B for consideration (bid to cover 8.87)
- Heaviest purchase was $702M in the 01/15/13 maturity
- Purchased maturities dated 12/15/2012 - 11/30/2013
Please read our disclaimer:
Trading has large potential rewards, but also large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the markets. The videos are neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures or options. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Rule 4.41 - Hypothetical or simulated performance results have certain limitations. Unlike an actual performance record, simulated results do not represent actual trading. Also, since the trades have not been executed, the results may have under-or-over compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profit or losses similar to those shown. Learn to trade futures forex stocks.
07:30 US May NFIB Small Business Optimism br>
08:30 US May PPI, PPI Ex Food & Energy, PPI Core, May Advance Retail Sales, Canada Q1 Capacity Utilization br>
10:00 US April Business Inventories br>
11:30 US Treasury's 4-week bill auction br>
16:30 API Crude Oil/Gasoline/Distillate Inventories
Todays Headlines
4:00:06 AM
*(IT) ITALY APR INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION M/M: 1.0% V 0.2%E; Y/Y: -0.1% V +2.0%E; INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION WDA Y/Y: 3.7% V 2.0%E
- Prior Industrial Production MoM revised higher from 0.4% to 0.7%
- Prior Industrial Production YoY revised higher from 0.8% to 1.0%
- Prior Industrial Production WDA YoY revised higher from 3.1% to 3.4%
4:14:07 AM
(EU) Peripheral 5-year credit default swaps (CDS) widen in session
- Ireland 5-year Credit Default Swap at approx 735bps, higher by almost 25bps; Record reading
- Portugal 5-year Credit Default Swap at approx 765bps, higher by almost 35bps; Record reading
- Greece 5-year Credit Default Swap at approx 1,575bps, higher by almost 35bps; Record reading
9:01:07 AM
(EU) ECB's Trichet: Reiterates that non-standard measures do not restrict monetary policy tightening
- April interest rate hike showed separation principle.
- Reiterates that inflation must be kept anchored to prevent secondary effects of inflation.
- Euro zone economic recovery is firmly established but unemployment is far too high.
- Notes again that EMU budget deficits are half that of the US or Japan.
9:30:17 AM
(US) Fed's Lacker: Worried about jobs situation, recovery has been patchy thus far
- Growth in the US could underperform for a sustained period of time
- Sees it worrying that rising demand is not causing stronger hiring
- Strong consumer spending in 2010 has dissipated in early 2011
11:00:44 AM
(EU) ECB's Nowotny: Calls for higher taxes, savings and structural reforms in Greece
- Not expecting to see a recession in the US
- Sees higher investment and wages in Germany, will help German consumption
Please read our disclaimer:
Trading has large potential rewards, but also large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the markets. The videos are neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures or options. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Rule 4.41 - Hypothetical or simulated performance results have certain limitations. Unlike an actual performance record, simulated results do not represent actual trading. Also, since the trades have not been executed, the results may have under-or-over compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profit or losses similar to those shown. Learn to trade futures forex stocks.
"He who asks is a fool for five minutes, but he who does not ask remains a fool forever.”
Market Week Wrap-Up
- Fallout from the soft economic data seen over the last month continued to push global equity indices lower and drive flight to safety trades this week. US equities saw their sixth consecutive weekly loss, the longest losing streak since 2002, and on Friday the DJIA closed below the 12,000 level for the first time since mid-March. With QE2 expiring at the end of the month, analysts and market commentators debated the likelihood of some form of continued easing from the Fed, although the current consensus is that things would have to get much worse for the Fed to launch QE3. Fed Chairman Bernanke hardly touched on the subject in his big policy speech on Wednesday, merely affirming that the extended period will remain in place. Other Fed governors dismissed further easing: Dudley said the soft patch in US economic activity is unlikely to last and Lockhart stated that a third round of QE would not be needed. Other commentators were less restrained: economist Robert Shiller warned that a double-dip recession is a real risk and said a further decline in housing prices of up to 25% over the next five years would not be surprising (recall that last week the S&P Case-Shiller housing price index hit its lowest level since the summer of 2006 in Q1). PIMCO's El-Erian said he was shocked by recent declines in consensus growth estimates, although he also said there is too much liquidity in the system for another recession to happen. In Europe, officials continued to pretend that the Greek situation was days or weeks away from resolution, even as the ECB and Germany squabbled over arrangements for some sort of debt restructuring. There was a brief equity bounce on Thursday after US exports rose to a new all-time high in April of $175.5B, although the big sequential decline in China's May trade volume and contraction in Britain's April manufacturing data helped eliminate those gains Friday morning. The Nasdaq and S&P500 had their biggest weekly declines since August 2010, falling 3.3% and 2.2% respectively, and on Friday the Nasdaq fell into the red year to date for 2011. The DJIA lost 1.6% this week.
- OPEC had a very contentious meeting on Wednesday, as oil ministers from member nations publically clashed over whether or not to increase production quotas. The Saudis and their Gulf allies Kuwait and the UAE proposed an production hike of up to 1.5M bpd while other delegates wanted to keep production flat. The faction seeking no increase prevailed, and OPEC maintained the current quota of 24.82M bpd with a loose agreement to revisit the issue at a special meeting in three months. Oil futures surged back above $100/bbl as OPEC confounded expectations. The Saudi oil minister called it "the worst meeting ever" and pledged his nation would meet any rise in market demand regardless of the cartel's quotas. [Note that few member states have stuck to their quotas since the early 1990s, and OPEC's April production (ex Iraq) was 26.3M bpd. Various estimates see the organization's actual production, with Iraq, closer to 30M bpd]. Later in the week there were press reports that Saudi Arabia would increase production to 10M bpd in July, up from May production of 8.9M bpd in order to meet growing demand. Saudi officials responded to the reports by saying it was too early to say whether they would increase output in June or not, but the report still helped push oil back below triple digits on Friday.
- Shares of the largest US banks see-sawed through the week. Analyst calls weighed on the sector as Dick Bove cut Wells Fargo to a sell and lowered FY11 estimates for Morgan Stanley. The New York Post reported that Barclays, Goldman, Bank of America, JP Morgan and Morgan Stanley were planning to announce thousands of job cuts at trading investment banking units in the coming weeks. The debate over debit card interchange fees also continued to weigh on issuers, as the Senate defeated a measure that sought to delay implementation of the Durbin rules that would cap debit card transaction fees set to go into effect next month. Both the Fed and the FDIC discussed proposals for extra capital charges for systemically important financial firms (the so-called SIFIs), with the Fed pushing for a 3% maximum surcharge on top of the new Basel III requirements. FDIC Chairwoman Bair said the surcharge could be 2-3% on top of Basel III, noting that the big banks would make a "nice return" on capital even with a 10% total capital requirement. Bank names rallied late on Friday's session after press reports indicated an unpublicized meeting of global banking regulators was backing off the US proposal for a 3% extra charge for SIFIs, and instead would likely cap it at 2-2.5%.
- US Treasury prices began the week consolidating near multi-month highs as the economic soft patch and continued consternation in Europe buoyed demand. Yields hit fresh lows mid-week after Bernanke indicated 2011 growth was coming in somewhat slower than expected. Buying was strongest at the short end with the 2-year yield dipping below 0.4% for the first time since last November. The benchmark 10-year yield drifted below 2.95% despite coupon auctions Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday. Fed fund futures are now not fully pricing in a Fed rate cut until Q4 2012.
- The week in FX began with the greenback consolidating after last Friday's anemic US jobs data, which only reinforced expectations for ultra-easy Fed policy to remain in place for the foreseeable future. Dollar softness was aided by comments from Fed Chairman Bernanke, who confirmed that accommodative monetary policy would still be needed for an extended period, while in Europe dealers were expecting ECB Chief Trichet to signal that a rate increase could happen at the July meeting. Comments out of China deflected the focus away from the Greek debt crisis, as the China State Administration of Foreign Exchange's (SAFE) Guan Ho, head of the international payment department, warned that he saw risks in excessive holdings of dollar assets and said that the dollar would continue to weaken against other major currencies. EUR/USD moved higher on the remarks, testing 1.4070 for fresh one-month highs. Euro strength did not survive the ECB press conference, however, and after Trichet uttered the magic words "strong vigilance," laying the groundwork for another rate hike in July, EUR/USD tumbled lower and flushed out crowded euro long positions. The cross broke below critical hourly support of 1.4550 Thursday morning and finished out the week well below 1.4400. Note also that USD/CHF continued to probe fresh post-WWII lows around the 0.8325 area
- The tone of the Greek drama shifted from last week's positive developments to a standoff between Germany and the ECB over private participation in a potential debt restructuring. The ECB demanded assurances that a debt rollover would be absolutely voluntary after German government officials warned that Germany's participation would be predicated on private investors sharing in the burdens. During the ECB press conference Trichet said that forcing private creditors to participate in a Greek debt rollover would be akin to default, while German Finance Minister Schaeuble countered that private sector investors cannot escape contributing to the Greece package. The ratings agencies continued to press the situation, as Fitch warned that it would lower the sovereign rating of Greece to 'C' in the event of any distressed debt exchange, equivalent to a seven-notch move from the current B+ level. There were unconfirmed press reports that the second Greece bailout package could cost up to €120B, compared to the €90B figure thrown around previously. The Greek government tried to signal progress by announcing its cabinet had unanimously approved a new four-year austerity plan that would meet the demands of the troika (ECB,IMF, EU), and PM Papandreou asked for political unity in the parliament which will vote on the plan on June 28.
- Ahead of Thursday's BoE rate decision the IMF commented on the UK economy, warning that now was not the time for the UK to adjust its macroeconomic stance. The IMF stated that it believes the BoE should only tighten policy after economic growth resumes. GBP/USD hit 1.6375 right after the MPC kept rates on hold, and sterling was broadly lower after Moody's reiterated that weak economic growth and fiscal slippage could see the UK lose its AAA sovereign rating.
- USD/JPY maintained a foothold below the 80 handle during the early part of the week. The stronger JPY was aided by comments from the IMF after acting chief Lipsky stated he does not view current level of the yen as a problem for future Japanese growth. Dealers are focused on the 79.50 level where a clump of option barriers exist. The level also corresponds to the initial entry back in March of the coordinated currency intervention by the G7.
- Central banks in Australia, New Zealand and South Korea offered varying degrees of hawkishness in their respective monetary policy updates this week. The RBA was expected to be the most hawkish but disappointed with a cautious tone, reiterating that its restrictive policy stance remains appropriate. The RBA also downgraded its assessment of labor, warning that employment growth would be slower in the near term. Later in the week, the Australia May employment change data indeed came in well below expectations and the labor participation rate also retreated. AUD/USD move to two-week lows below $1.0530 on Friday. The New Zealand central bank kept rates on hold but signaled that OCR will have to rise in order to offset the increasing inflation pressure. NZD hit a post-flotation record high of $0.83 against the dollar before risk aversion and verbal jawboning against excessive Kiwi strength by RBNZ governor Bollard pulled the pair back to $0.82 on Friday. The Bank of Korea was the biggest surprise in the trifecta, unexpectedly raising rates by 25bps to 3.25% following two consecutive holds. The BoK attributed its tighter stance to persistent inflation pressures, with the most recent core metrics hitting multi-year high despite falling headline figures, showcasing the pass-through from food and energy into other parts of the economy.
- The China trade data was cited among the key factors in Friday's pronounced sell-off, as the May surplus of $13B missed the $19B consensus. A closer look reveals a less gloomy output however, as imports rose sharply amid sequential gains in iron ore and energy. Recall that the disappointing imports last month foreshadowed multi-month lows in China industrial production, leading to speculation next week's monthly metrics may contain an upward surprise. Shanghai Composite losses were contained below 1% for the week as the index bounced above the key 2,700 level late on Friday.
Week of 6/13/2011 thru 6/17/2011
Monday, June 13, 2011
Economic
11:30 US Treasury's 3- and 6-month bill auction
Tuesday, June 14, 2011
Economic
07:30 US May NFIB Small Business Optimism
08:30 US May PPI, PPI Ex Food & Energy, PPI Core, May Advance Retail Sales, Canada Q1 Capacity Utilization
10:00 US April Business Inventories
11:30 US Treasury's 4-week bill auction
16:30 API Crude Oil/Gasoline/Distillate Inventories
Wednesday, June 15, 2011
Economic
08:30 US May CPI, CPI Ex Food & Energy, CPI Core, June Empire Manufacturing, Canada April Manufacturing Shipments
09:00 US April TIC Flows
09:15 US May Industrial Production, May Capacity Utilization
10:00 US June NAHB Housing Market Index
10:30 DoE Crude Oil/Gasoline/Distillate Inventories
Thursday, June 16, 2011
Economic
08:30 US Q1 Current Account Balance, May Building Permits, May Housing Starts, Initial Jobless Claims, Continuing Claims
10:00 US June Philadelphia Fed
10:30 DoE Natural Gas Inventories
11:00 US Treasury's TIPS announcement
Friday, June 17, 2011
Economic
09:55 US June Prelim University of Michigan Confidence
10:00 US May Leading Indicators
Please read our disclaimer:
Trading has large potential rewards, but also large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the markets. The videos are neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures or options. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Rule 4.41 - Hypothetical or simulated performance results have certain limitations. Unlike an actual performance record, simulated results do not represent actual trading. Also, since the trades have not been executed, the results may have under-or-over compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profit or losses similar to those shown. Learn to trade futures forex stocks.
07:00 Canada May Employment Report
08:30 US May Import Price Index
14:00 US May Federal Budget Balance
Todays Headlines
8:31:31 AM
(GR) Moody's head comments on European sovereign default: There is no default that is orderly and meaningful
- Difficult to conceive of a 'truly voluntary' solution to the crisis in Greece
- In historical terms, 50% of countries rated like Greece at 'Caa1' have defaulted within 5-years
- Greek default would affect the ratings of others in rescue package, namely Portugal, Ireland
8:34:24 AM
(EU) ECB Trichet: STRONG VIGILANCE is required; Continued upward pressure in CPI; policy stance is still accommodative - Prepared remarks
- Maintains full allotment tender for weekly MRO operations until at least Oct 11. Monthly liquidity operations rate will be indexed to main refi rate.
- Reiterates view that Inflation will remain above 2% target in the next several months. Higher inflation forecasts reflect energy prices. Assume oil prices will decline somewhat.
8:52:13 AM
(EU) ECB Trichet: Decision was unanimous; 'strong vigilance' wording means we are in a "mode where there may be a hike at the next meeting," but ECB never precommits - Q&A
- Reiterates ECB has a strong track record on maintaining price stability.
- Must avoid a credit event; Not in favor of a debt restructuring; Exclude all concepts that are not "purely voluntary."
-DID NOT say that ECB would support a voluntary rollover, not our intention to rollover ECB debt.
9:45:33 AM
(GR) Greece bailout costs could reach €120B vs €90B speculation earlier - financial press citing sources
- €30B expected from private sector, €30B from asset sales and privatizations; and €60B from the joint EU/IMF assistance
- Reminder: Yesterday speculation for saving Greece put the figure at €90B
11:02:40 AM
NY Fed: Purchased $6.94B in outright coupon purchase; dealers submitted $18.36B for consideration (bid to cover 2.65)
- Heaviest purchase was $3.17B in the 05/31/18 maturity (longest dated)
- Purchased maturities dated 12/31/2016 - 05/31/2018
Please read our disclaimer:
Trading has large potential rewards, but also large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the markets. The videos are neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures or options. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Rule 4.41 - Hypothetical or simulated performance results have certain limitations. Unlike an actual performance record, simulated results do not represent actual trading. Also, since the trades have not been executed, the results may have under-or-over compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profit or losses similar to those shown. Learn to trade futures forex stocks.
10:30 DoE Crude Oil/Gasoline/Distillate Inventories
08:30 US April Trade Balance, Initial Jobless Claims, Continuing Claims, Canada April New Housing Price Index
10:00 US April Wholesale Inventories
10:30 DoE Natural Gas Inventories
13:00 US Treasury's 30-year bond auction
Todays Headlines
6:00:03 AM
*(GE) GERMANY APR INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION M/M: -0.6% V +0.2%E; Y/Y: 9.6% V 10.0%E
- Prior MoM revised higher from 0.7% to 1.2%
- Prior YoY revised higher from 11.2% to 11.7%
7:00:03 AM
*(US) MBA MORTGAGE APPLICATIONS W/E JUN 3RD: -0.4% V -4.0% PRIOR
- Refi's: +1.3% v -5.7% prior.
- Avg Rate on 30y mortgage: 4.54% v 4.58% prior.
- Purchase Index: (Seasonally adj): -4.4% v +1.5% prior.
7:50:04 AM
*(PD) POLAND CENTRAL BANK RAISES BASE RATE BY 25BPS TO 4.50%; AS EXPECTED
**Insight: Poland has raised Base rate by total 100bps in the current tightening cycle that began in Jan 2011
9:39:31 AM
(SR) Saudi Oil Min Naimi: Saudi Arabia remains commited to supplying the oil market with whatever it needs
- "This is one of the worst OPEC meetings we have ever had."
- Six member countries did not agree with GCC's proposal to raise total production ceiling to 30.3M bpd. GCC's proposed OPEC members raise output by 1.5M bpd. Notes that GCC's proposals were based on projected demand in second half of 2011.
10:02:53 AM
(PD) Poland Central Bank Gov Belka: Planning to hold rates steady for now, and may last for some time; YTD rate hikes should curb CPI pressures back to target - press conference:
- Q1 GDP data confirms relativel;y high growth but sees recent signals of slower global growth
- Stronger PLN currency means lower price pressures
Please read our disclaimer:
Trading has large potential rewards, but also large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the markets. The videos are neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures or options. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Rule 4.41 - Hypothetical or simulated performance results have certain limitations. Unlike an actual performance record, simulated results do not represent actual trading. Also, since the trades have not been executed, the results may have under-or-over compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profit or losses similar to those shown. Learn to trade futures forex stocks.
10:30 DoE Crude Oil/Gasoline/Distillate Inventories
13:00 US Treasury's 10-year note auction
14:00 Fed's Beige Book
17:00 Brazil Central Bank rate decision
Todays Headlines
8:00:02 AM
(EU) EU Commission assesses Euro-Area Budget Plans: Lasting reduction in public debt and deficits are essential
- National economic plans presented by member states broadly reflect agreed policy goals but frequently lack ambition and concrete details.
- Membert States have largely taken up commission policy guidance with macroeconomic assumptions broadly realistic but some measures are vague
- Greater ambition is needed on making finances sustainable and not soften recommendations
8:01:55 AM
(GR) Moody's comments on Greece: Reiterates outlook on potential restructuring
- Difficult to see how rollover would be strictly voluntary, same as default
- Reiterates that current Greek rating sees 50% default risk in 3-5 years
8:13:56 AM
(US) Fed's Fisher: Negative jobs number is not a game changer, FOMC has forecasted an uneven recovery all along - CNBC
- Expecting more robust growth in the 2H between 3-4%
- Not expecting Dovish members of the Fed to advocate for QE3
11:01:58 AM
NY Fed: Purchased $1.44B in TIPS securities; dealers submitted $7.77B for consideration (bid to cover 5.39)
- Heaviest purchase $300M in the 01/15/25 maturity
11:37:26 AM
OPEC planning to recommend an increase in oil output of 1-1.5M bpd- world press citing sources
- Reminder: Meeting takes place tommorow in Vienna, Austria. Press reports last week said that OPEC may raise output quotas by 500K-1.5M bpd, but subsequently various OPEC oil ministers have commented that a quota increase is not necessary.
Please read our disclaimer:
Trading has large potential rewards, but also large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the markets. The videos are neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures or options. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Rule 4.41 - Hypothetical or simulated performance results have certain limitations. Unlike an actual performance record, simulated results do not represent actual trading. Also, since the trades have not been executed, the results may have under-or-over compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profit or losses similar to those shown. Learn to trade futures forex stocks.
10:00 June IBD/TIPP Economic optimism
11:30 US Treasury's 4-week bill auction
13:00 US Treasury's 3-year note auction
15:00 US April Consumer Credit
16:30 API Crude Oil/Gasoline/Distillate Inventories
Todays Headlines
4:10:14 AM
(EU) ECB Constancio: EU reforms to date are insufficient
- Suggests comprehensive response to the financial crisis
- Fundamental governance changes are required
- Governance must not be hurt by EU27.
5:28:54 AM
(SP) Moody's comments on Spain region of Catalonia: Budget deficit is Credit Negative for Spain
- Outcome of Catalonia debate with the national government is not clear.
- Spain needs national consensus or compliance measures.
- Spain's government unable to enfore regional fiscal compliance.
5:32:13 AM
(US) Fed's Plosser: Recent US jobs report was disappointing but medium term picture unchanged with gradual recovery in US economy
- Somewhat tighter policy is somewhat possible by end of 2011
- Hurdle for QE3 would be very high
- Exit should start long before job market recovery is firm.
- Inflation threat seen over the next year or two
5:45:36 AM
(GR) ECB Bini-Smaghi: Debt restructuring must be used only as last resort
- Default would make EMU less attractive as an area
- Greece must implement reforms or default is in the cards
- Greece is solvent if it is willing to sell some assets
5:42:37 AM
(GR) German govt offical spokesperson: Not certain whether there will be second bailout package for Greece or the terms of such an arrangement
- Greek aid does not need to come from EFSF.
- Expects full troika report by the mid-week.
- Chancellor Merkel supports Schaeuble's idea regarding the involvement of private creditors in Greece bailout.
Please read our disclaimer:
Trading has large potential rewards, but also large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the markets. The videos are neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures or options. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Rule 4.41 - Hypothetical or simulated performance results have certain limitations. Unlike an actual performance record, simulated results do not represent actual trading. Also, since the trades have not been executed, the results may have under-or-over compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profit or losses similar to those shown. Learn to trade futures forex stocks.
"The main dangers in this life are the people who want to change everything - or nothing. ”
Market Week Wrap-Up
- Economic data out this week was relentlessly negative and solidified a sense of risk aversion by investors that built up steadily in May. Stock indices around the world remained under pressure along with various commodity markets tied to global growth. The sense that the economy is facing more than just a temporary soft spot has grown, prompting speculation that the Fed's 'extended period' will last even longer. On Tuesday the March S&P/Case Shiller index showed that home prices in 12 major US cities have reached their lowest level since the housing bubble burst. The ADP jobs data spooked markets on Wednesday as the headline reading came in at +38K versus expectations for +175K, the lowest in the series since last September, prompting analysts to slash their estimates for May payrolls. Both the May Chicago PMI and the May ISM Manufacturing disappointed, hitting lows last seen in the fall of 2009, with new order growth rates looking especially weak. The May non-farm payrolls data rounded out the ugly picture with the headline figure coming in at +54K versus expectations of +165K and unemployment ticked up to 9.1%. The birth-death adjustment made the number look even worse after an unusually large adjustment. PIMCO's Bill Gross said he does not believe the jobs data was a one-time aberration, citing his often-repeated "new normal" thesis. Global data was also notably weak, with disappointing manufacturing data out of China and Europe, and a negative GDP print in Australia. Events in Washington only worsened sentiment after Congress staged some debt limit theater, voting down a "clean" bill that would have raised the US debt ceiling without further conditions. Moody's responded by warning that it might put the ratings of the United States on review for downgrade, increasing the pressure on Congress and the Obama administration to cut a deal on the debt ceiling. Recall that back in April S&P changed its outlook on the US AAA rating from stable to negative. In a sign of the stress, the US 10-year yield moved below 3% for the first time since early December while corporate debt markets sold off. For the week the S&P declined 2.3%, the Dow gave back 2.3% and the NASDQ fell 2.3%.
- Shares of the leading US banks have been steadily deteriorating since late February and took another leg down this week on legal action against Goldman Sachs. On Thursday Goldman disclosed that it has received a subpoena from the New York state prosecutor in regards to its mortgage business. Just after the Goldman news dropped, Moody's put the ratings of Bank of America, Citi and Wells Fargo on review for potential downgrade.
- Nokia got plenty of attention this week as its US-listed ADRs fell approximately 20% from Friday's closing levels. On Tuesday morning Nokia lowered its Q2 outlook for its device and services business and discontinuing its FY11 device and services outlook. According to Nokia, competitive factors and market trends were taking a toll on the company's mobile business, particularly in China and Europe, while pricing tactics by Nokia and its competitors were hurting the business. The rumor mill made the most of the steep declines, and various parties said Nokia was looking to sell its mobile business to Microsoft. Nokia's CEO later appeared on CNBC to deny the claims. In other mobile news, Apple said that CEO Jobs would appear at the keynote event for its upcoming WWDC next week.
- After several months of strong sales growth, many retailing names had a more downbeat performance in May. The soft same-store sales numbers offer more ammo to market watchers predicting a soft patch or worse for the economic recovery, as rising prices seem to have finally caught up with consumers. Department stores Target, Kohls and JC Penny were big losers. Gap missed expectations by a wide margin and the Limited's formerly double-digit comp increases fell to a mere +6%. Discount warehouse names BJs and Costco were immune to the overall slide, with comps holding up well compared to recent months but were assuredly helped by gas station sales. High-end department names Saks and Nordstrom also beat expectations. Many retailers cited weather as a major factor, as May was unseasonably cold and wet, not to mention the floods along the Mississippi and Ohio Rivers and hundreds of tornadoes in the mid-west and south.
- Europe gave the impression of making real progress towards stabilizing the Greece situation this week, providing some support for risk-on trading in the Euro. Germany backed off its demands for a Greek bond rescheduling and Spain had a successful debt auction. However, more realistic analysts have few illusions that the efforts of the Europeans are only putting off the doomsday scenario by kicking the can down the road once again. Beyond Greece, more weak economic data from around the globe balanced out the positive developments in Europe and provided plenty of reasons to question the viability of the economic recovery. With talks on a fresh aid package for Greece underway, Friday's positive assessment from the IMF/EU/ECB Trioka mission to Athens helped the euro push out to four-week highs above 1.4600 against the greenback. The chatter is that euro zone officials have agreed in principle on a new three-year adjustment, including enough funding to keep the nation solvent through mid-2014. Note that the euro also got an assist from more hawkish ECB commentary, after Stark commented that the central bank was giving consideration to more rate hikes.
- Concerns about the UK economy deepened on Wednesday after the UK May manufacturing PMI came in much lower than estimates, reflecting the slowest growth rate since September 2009, when the UK was in recession. Dovish comments out of BoE MPC member Fisher also weighed on the pound. Several large banks have already begun pushing back their forecasts for BoE tightening, with the first rate hike now generally seen in November rather than the previous estimate of August.
- Weaker Swiss GDP and optimism about Greece softened the Swiss Franc early on in the week. EUR/CHF bounced back to the 1.23 neighborhood after testing 1.2100 last week. But the price action reversed again mid week, sending EUR/CHF back to all-time highs against the euro and post-WWII highs against the greenback. Dealers also said that CHF strength has been aided by the persistent flow of deposits out of the Greek banking sector and into the franc as Greece's sovereign rating continued to slide further toward junk.
- Moody's placed Japan's sovereign ratings on review for possible downgrade on Tuesday, citing concerns about a weak policy response to a slowing economy and the current debt situation. Japan PM Kan survived a no-confidence motion. However, the risk aversion saw USD/JPY push towards the 80.00 level.
- China Manufacturing PMI topped the consensus view of 51.6 at 52.0 but still marked a 9-month low in its second consecutive monthly decline. The Shanghai Composite traded as low as 2,676 on Thursday - a new four-month low - before recovering some ground, even though a further post-NFP slide is anticipated in Asia come Monday. Australia's Q1 GDP contracted for the first time in nine quarters on the heels of Queensland flood damage earlier this year. The most recent assessment of the Aussie terms of trade position also painted a somewhat bleak picture, with the overall trade balance at A$1.6B - below A$2B consensus. While exports and imports both rose 1% m/m, shipments of Australia's coal and iron ore both fell on sequential basis. Despite the soft patch of data, AUD hit a 3-week high following the US NFP report, with focus shifting to the RBA rate decision on tap for next week.
Week of 6/6/2011 thru 6/10/2011
Monday, June 06, 2011
Economic
08:30 Canada May Ivey PMI, April Building Permits
11:30 US Treasury's 3- and 6-month bill auction
Tuesday, June 07, 2011
Economic
10:00 June IBD/TIPP Economic optimism
11:30 US Treasury's 4-week bill auction
13:00 US Treasury's 3-year note auction
15:00 US April Consumer Credit
16:30 API Crude Oil/Gasoline/Distillate Inventories
Wednesday, June 08, 2011
Economic
10:30 DoE Crude Oil/Gasoline/Distillate Inventories
13:00 US Treasury's 10-year note auction
14:00 Fed's Beige Book
17:00 Brazil Central Bank rate decision
Thursday, June 09, 2011
Economic
08:30 US April Trade Balance, Initial Jobless Claims, Continuing Claims, Canada April New Housing Price Index
10:00 US April Wholesale Inventories
10:30 DoE Natural Gas Inventories
13:00 US Treasury's 30-year bond auction
Friday, June 10, 2011
Economic
07:00 Canada May Employment Report
08:30 US May Import Price Index
14:00 US May Federal Budget Balance
Please read our disclaimer:
Trading has large potential rewards, but also large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the markets. The videos are neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures or options. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Rule 4.41 - Hypothetical or simulated performance results have certain limitations. Unlike an actual performance record, simulated results do not represent actual trading. Also, since the trades have not been executed, the results may have under-or-over compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profit or losses similar to those shown. Learn to trade futures forex stocks.
08:30 US May Unemployment Rate, May Nonfarm Payrolls, May Manufacturing Payrolls, May Average Hourly Earnings
10:00 US May ISM Non-Manufacturing, May ISM Prices Paid
Todays Headlines
8:30:02 AM
*(US) INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS: 422K V 417KE; CONTINUING CLAIMS: 3.711M V 3.68ME
- Prior Initial Jobless Claims revised higher from 424K to 428K
- Prior Continuing Claims revised higher from 3.690M to 3.712M
9:09:16 AM
(JP) Japan PM Kan: Failure of no-confidence vote gives the govt room to continue dealing with reconstruction and nuclear issues - Press Conference
- Hope opposition will cooperate until certain progress on issues is in sight.
- Reconstruction will require a second budget.
12:44:51 PM
(GR) EU officials have agreed in principle on a 3 year adjustment with limited private sector involvement - financial press citing sources
- Limits to private sector involvement for risk of credit events
- New agreement would involve international funding
2:17:21 PM
(GR) EU officials denying press speculation of an imminent private sector deal on another Greece aid package
- Reminder: Earlier reports circulated that EU officials have agreed in principle on a 3 year adjustment with limited private sector involvement
3:30:32 PM
Market Internals update at 15:30ET
- NYSE volume 705M shares, about 4% above its three-month average; decliners lead advancers by 1.1:1.
- NASDAQ volume 1.58B shares, about 1% above its three-month average; advancers lead decliners by 1.1:1.
- VIX index -2.3% at just over 17.00
Please read our disclaimer:
Trading has large potential rewards, but also large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the markets. The videos are neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures or options. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Rule 4.41 - Hypothetical or simulated performance results have certain limitations. Unlike an actual performance record, simulated results do not represent actual trading. Also, since the trades have not been executed, the results may have under-or-over compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profit or losses similar to those shown. Learn to trade futures forex stocks.
07:00 Canada April CPI, March Retail Sales
08:30 US Q1 Productivity, Q1 Unit Labor Costs, US Initial Jobless Claims, Continuing Claims
10:00 US April Factory Orders
10:30 DoE Natural Gas Inventories
11:00 DoE Crude Oil/Gasoline/Distillate Inventories, US Treasury note announcement
Todays Headlines
10:13:24 AM
(EU) Regulators in the EU are considering a delay in financial stress test results, citing concerns over industry data - financial press
- Regulators may delay results to July vs the prior forecast from the European Banking Authority (EBA) which stated the stress tests were to be released in June
- Follow Up: EBA is challenging the bank data provided in the first round of the stress tests, additional data will be requested
11:02:51 AM
NY Fed: Purchased $7.37B in outright coupon purchase; dealers submitted $15.99B for consideration (bid to cover 2.17)
- Heaviest purchase was $5.39B in the 05/31/18 maturity (longest dated)
11:44:05 AM
(EU) ECB's Stark: ECB is giving consideration to more rate hikes - financial press
- A Greek bond rollover would not be the same as default
- If debt rollover is not seen as a default, it may be a way of involving the private sector in financing Greece.
12:21:09 PM
(NZ) Fonterra Global Dairy Trade auction: Dairy Trade price index +4.5% from prior auction on 5/17 (-1.1% prior)
- Average winning auction price $4,306/metric ton v $4,443/metric ton ton prior
- Whole milk powder -3.0% v +0.1% prior
- Anhydrous milk fat +6.2% v -5.8% prior
1:08:10 PM
PIMCO's El Erian: Not expecting to see any "QE3" program as there would be too many unintended consequences - CNBC
- Damage created by QE3 would be greater than benefits.
- PIMCO remains underweight USTs due to US fiscal situation, world is starting to worry about US debt issues.
- Does not foresee a double dip recession.
Please read our disclaimer:
Trading has large potential rewards, but also large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the markets. The videos are neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures or options. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Rule 4.41 - Hypothetical or simulated performance results have certain limitations. Unlike an actual performance record, simulated results do not represent actual trading. Also, since the trades have not been executed, the results may have under-or-over compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profit or losses similar to those shown. Learn to trade futures forex stocks.
SchoolOfTrade.com and United Business Servicing, Inc. are not registered investment or trading advisers. The services and content provided by SchoolOfTrade.com and United Business Servicing, Inc. are for educational purposes only, and should not be considered investment advice in any way. U.S. Government Required Disclaimer - Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Futures and Options trading have large potential rewards, but also large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the futures and options markets. Don't trade with money you can't afford to lose. This is neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures or options. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed on this web site. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results. cftc rule 4.41. These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or-over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown. Testimonials may not be representative of the experience of other clients. Testimonials are not a guarantee of future performance or success. No compensation is ever paid in exchange for any testimonials. Testimonials have not been independently verified.
