08:30 US Aug Personal Income, Personal Spending, PCE Core, PCE Deflator
09:55 US Sept Final University of Michigan Confidence
10:00 US Sept ISM Manufacturing, Aug Construction Spending
Todays Headlines
8:05:02 AM
G-20 ministers to propose to set capital standards 2-3% higher for world's largest banks at upcoming G-20 meeting in November in South Korea - CNBC
- Proposals to be referred to as 'systemic capital charges'
- Reminder: on 9/29 ECB's Weber referred to recent Basel 3 agreement as needing more work including dealing with "too big to fail"
8:30:02 AM
*(US) INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS: 453K V 460KE; CONTINUING CLAIMS: 4.457M V 4.473ME
- Prior Initial Claims revised higher from 465K to 469K
- Prior Continuing Claims revised higher from 4.489M to 4.540M
- 4 week average for claims at 463K v 463K prior
9:28:24 AM
(PD) Poland's Central Bank issues 2011 policy guidelines: Fiscal expansion may require higher interest rates
- Aiming for 2.5% CPI lower global growth could slow CPI rate; may see an incremental inflation impact due to 2011 increase in VAT
- Want to enter the EMU as soon as possible
11:03:34 AM
NY Fed: Purchased $2.2B in outright coupon purchase; dealers submitted $11.5B for consideration (bid to cover 5.2)
- Heaviest purchase $1.247B in the 11/15/21 maturity
- Avg bid to cover over prior four auctions is: 10.1
11:11:38 AM
(US) Dept of Interior Sec Salazar: Will publish offshore drilling rules in the coming days; implementing new drilling safety rules today
- New regulations deal with blowout preventers, cementing and well design; oil industry should expect a dynamic rules environment, CEOs will have to certify that their plans will meet safety regulations
- The industry should expect "dynamic regulations"
Please read our disclaimer:
Trading has large potential rewards, but also large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the markets. The videos are neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures or options. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Rule 4.41 - Hypothetical or simulated performance results have certain limitations. Unlike an actual performance record, simulated results do not represent actual trading. Also, since the trades have not been executed, the results may have under-or-over compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profit or losses similar to those shown. Learn to trade futures forex stocks.
08:30 US Final Q2 GDP, Q2 GDP Price Index, Q2 Personal Consumption, Q2 Core PCE , Initial Jobless Claims, Continuing Claims
09:45 US Sept Chicago Purchasing Manager Index
10:30 Natural Gas Inventories
Todays Headlines
5:17:22 AM
*(EU) ECB ALLOTS €104B IN 3-MONTH TENDER AT FIXED RATE OF 1%
- Bids received in LTRO: 182
**Note: At the late July LTRO operation, banks tapped about €132B in 3-month loans, which was less than expected.
7:00:09 AM
*(US) MBA MORTGAGE APPLICATIONS W/E SEPT 24TH: -0.8% V -1.4% PRIOR
- Refi's: -1.6% v -0.9% prior
- Avg Rate on 30y mortgage: 4.38% v 4.44% prior
- Purchase Index: (Seasonally adj): +2.4% v -3.3% prior
7:09:36 AM
(EU) EU Document in Preparation for European Fin Min Meeting: Econoimc recovery conceals high divergence acorss EU; inflation rates set to remain moderate
- Concerns over sovereign debt could have repercussions on all EU market and the situation is fragile.
- EU banks should be stress tested annually; risks to banks mainly from credit risks to companies, commercial and US property markets.
8:30:02 AM
*(CA) CANADA AUG INDUSTRIAL PRODUCT PRICE M/M: 0.4 % V 0.2%E; RAW MATERIALS PRICE INDEX M/M: 2.2% V 0.5%E
- Prior Industrial Product Price lower from 0.1% to 0.0%
- Prior Raw Materials higher from 1.8% to 1.9%
9:01:04 AM
(EU) ECB: EU banking sector is clouded by uncertainty; banks to see more losses on household lending portfolios
- Expresses concern over reliance of some banks on ECB funding
- Risks to banks from corporate sector have decreased but remain substantial
- Expect corporate insolvencies to rise further but modestly
10:00:48 AM
(AU) IMF: Australia's RBA can wait on rates but may need to tighten to contain inflation; GDP seen at 3-3.5% for 2010 and 2011
- Sees the AUD as overvalued somewhat, will likely only be temporary
- Expects inflation in Australia to hit the peak of 3% target
- Mining tax is a positive step; Govt must prepare for the chance that commodity prices may decline
- Notes that any housing price decline could impact consumer confidence
Please read our disclaimer:
Trading has large potential rewards, but also large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the markets. The videos are neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures or options. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Rule 4.41 - Hypothetical or simulated performance results have certain limitations. Unlike an actual performance record, simulated results do not represent actual trading. Also, since the trades have not been executed, the results may have under-or-over compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profit or losses similar to those shown. Learn to trade futures forex stocks.
10:30 DoE Crude Oil/Gasoline/Distillate Inventories
13:00 US Treasury $29B 7-yr Auction
Todays Headlines
7:25:57 AM
(US) US scrap prices seen falling in October - Steel Business Briefing
- Appears the market will be down by $20-25/long ton due to the lack of new export business.
- Shredded scrap prices have declined by about $10/l.t already from Septembers $365-375/l.t (delivered mill), with the expectation they will decline by another $10/l.t in the next two weeks.
9:00:03 AM
(US) July S&P/Case-Shiller Composite 20 Y/Y: 3.18% v 3.10%e; Home Price Index: 148.91 v 147.97 Prior
- Prior Composite-20 revised from 4.23% to 4.21%
- Prior Home Price index revised from 147.97 to 147.95
- Follow up: As of 09:24ET - Economist Case: US housing is 'bouncing' along the bottom.
9:00:53 AM
(UK) BoE Posen: Inflation may fall well short of target without additional QE
- Very serious risks if policy stimulus insufficient.
- Direct credit market action often better done by govt.
- If QE does not work then time for more fiscal stimulus and corporate debt purchases.
- Believes it is better if BoE and more central banks did large scale purchases together.
- RIght for central banks in general to add more stimulus.
10:10:15 AM
European Market Internals Update at 10:10 ET
- FTSE100 volume at 461.3M, which is 42% below its 10-day moving average
- DAX volume at 67.7M, which is 45% below its 10-day moving average
- CAC40 volume at 94.6M, which is 36% below its 10-day moving average
11:04:25 AM
NY Fed: Purchased $550M in outright TIPS purchase; dealers submitted $6.8B for consideration (bid to cover 12.3)
- Heaviest purchase $256M in the 01/15/19 maturity
- Prior bid to cover for TIPS purchase stood at 40.97
- Purchased maturities dated 01/15/2011 - 02/15/2040
Please read our disclaimer:
Trading has large potential rewards, but also large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the markets. The videos are neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures or options. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Rule 4.41 - Hypothetical or simulated performance results have certain limitations. Unlike an actual performance record, simulated results do not represent actual trading. Also, since the trades have not been executed, the results may have under-or-over compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profit or losses similar to those shown. Learn to trade futures forex stocks.
09:00 US Aug S&P/CS Home Price Index, S&P/CS Composite-20
10:00 US Sept Consumer Confidence
10:00 US Sept Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index
13:00 US Treasury $35B 5-yr Auction
16:30 API Crude Oil/Gasoline/Distillate Inventories
Todays Headlines
3:48:12 AM
Barclays Capital initiates European Software/IT Service sector with a Positive view
- Initiate Autonomy, Temenos and Wirecard with Overweight
- SOP.FR, SAP.GE, MCRO.UK rated Overweight
- Initiate Dassault, Indra, Atos with Underweigh
5:07:21 AM
*(IT) ITALY DEBT AGENCY (TESORO) AUCTION RESULTS: SELLS TOTAL €12B IN 6-MO AND 2-YR BONDS (AS EXPECTED)
- Sells €9B in 6-month treasuries, avg yield 1.061%
- Sells €3B in Aug 2012 CTZs, avg yield 1.826%
6:00:50 AM
(PO) OECD: Portugal needs a credible fiscal plan to restore confidence and resuce current account deficit; may have to cut deficit even more if financial markets worsen
- There must be political consensus on austerity.
- Sees Portugal's 2010 GDP growth at 1% and 0.8% for 2011.
7:42:30 AM
(IR) Ireland Fin Min Lenihan: Ireland will honor its obligations - BBC
- Keeping creditors to the country's ailing banks on Ireland's side is essential to the recovery.
- Notes that "those who acted in good faith" to Irish lending institutions have to be convinced that Ireland will honor its obligations and Irish banks will honor their obligations.
9:11:33 AM
(EU) ECB's Trichet: Risks to inflation outlook are slightly to the upside; Europe has made good progress on financial regulation
- Reiterates current monetary stance is accommodative, interest rates are appropriate.
- All measures taken by ECB are in line with its mandate, non-standard measures are temporary.
- Incoming data better than expected since last Jun hearing.
- Continues to see uncertainty in outlook.
- Inflation should rise slightly in short-term.
- Inflation expectations remain firmly anchored.
9:29:55 AM
(EU) ECB's Trichet: Needs a system of oversight and transparency; Regulation differences with US would create issues - Q&A session
- The ECB's mandate has not changed, primary mandate remains price stability.
- Reiterates opposition to an EU financial transaction tax (Tobin tax), sees major difficulties in such a tax.
- Ireland has proven it can deal with challenges.
9:44:39 AM
(BR) Brazil Fin Min Mantega: The world is engaged in an international currency war
- Reiterates Brazil will not allow its currency to over-appreciate.
- Says wealthy countries are also artificially devaluing their currencies; countries use currency to win markets.
- Reiterates that Brazil industrial output growth at approx 10% and GDP growth of at least 7% in 2010.
- Real estate boom to continue and there is a need to strenghten industrial policy.
11:30:05 AM
*(IS) ISRAEL CENTRAL BANK RAISES BASE RATE BY 25 BPS TO 2.00% (AS EXPECTED)
- Most data point to continued, rapid economic expansion in Q3, sees signs of increasing wages, notes housing prices are still increasing steeply.
- Inflation expectations remain high.
Please read our disclaimer:
Trading has large potential rewards, but also large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the markets. The videos are neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures or options. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Rule 4.41 - Hypothetical or simulated performance results have certain limitations. Unlike an actual performance record, simulated results do not represent actual trading. Also, since the trades have not been executed, the results may have under-or-over compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profit or losses similar to those shown. Learn to trade futures forex stocks.
“Lasting change is a series of compromises. And compromise is all right, as long your values don't change.”
Market Week Wrap-up
- With the calendar light of either major earnings or economic data releases, the focus this week was squarely on Tuesday's FOMC rate decision. . Markets remain unsure that continued economic recovery is a sure bet, and anticipation had been building for the Fed to announce some form of new support measures at its September meeting. The S&P500 broke above highs seen in June on Monday ahead of the decision as traders positioned themselves for another leg up in markets. The Fed did not disappoint investors, altering key sections of its policy statement in a way that most analysts believe opens the door to more quantitative easing if US economic conditions worsen. Equity markets were choppy on Wednesday and Thursday as the dollar weakened and gold pushed out to fresh all-time highs, helped along by weak jobless claims and more European sovereign debt jitters. Then Friday's strong August durable goods data sent US indices into high gear, with equities closing out the week near their weekly highs. For the week the Nasdaq gained 2.8%, the DJIA rose 2.4% and the S&P500 was up by 2.1%. Aiding strength on Friday were widely noted comments from hedge fund manager David Tepper, who called the current market situation a no lose situation for equities. By Tepper's reasoning, if the economy improves, stocks go up, while if the economy sours, the Fed will likely open the liquidity floodgates with new quantitative easing (the so-called 'Bernanke put').
- With the Fed on hold for the foreseeable future, analysis is focused on the content and changes in the statement accompanying the FOMC decision. After reiterating that inflation is likely to remain subdued for some time, the Fed sent a clear signal that more qualitative easing is on the table if necessary. In the key passage, the statement read that the Fed "is prepared to provide additional accommodation if needed to support the economic recovery and to return inflation, over time, to levels consistent with its mandate." Markets also focused on language stating that "measures of underlying inflation are currently at levels somewhat below those the Committee judges most consistent, over the longer run, with its mandate to promote maximum employment and price stability." Note that the Fed made the unusual move of explicitly mentioning its mandate twice in the short policy statement, which was taken as a signal to markets that it may be shifting the weighting of its dual mandate for price stability and full employment towards the latter.
- Few major earnings reports were on tap this week, although some firms have begun offering profit warnings ahead of the Fall earnings season, which begins in mid October. Cruise operator Carnival lifted related travel names after offering decent Q3 results and higher FY10 guidance. ConAgra Foods missed top- and bottom-line expectations and reduced its FY11 guidance slightly. General Mills reported solidly in line results for their Q1 and reaffirmed the company's full year outlook. Note that the company's earnings were well below last year's Q1. Rite Aid's Q2 losses were greater than expected while revenue was a bit soft; executives blamed their poor performance on tough comps from last year. Shares of Adobe tumbled after the firm offered cautious guidance for Q4 and got multiple analyst downgrades, despite coming in a bit ahead of estimates in its Q3 report. Financial name Jefferies fell sharply after it missed targets in its Q3 report. In a bad sign for the rest of the financials reporting results in the first weeks of earnings season, Jefferies CEO cautioned that trading volumes were "painfully slow" during the months of June, July and August.
- Deal making cooled off somewhat after several weeks of frenzied M&A action that helped sustain upward momentum. Avis Budget increased the cash portion of its offer for Dollar Thrifty by nearly five bucks, to $45.79 per share, making for a total cash and stock offer equal to $53/share. Hertz declined to raise its competing bid of $50.25/share. After months of unconfirmed talk, L-1 Identity Solutions said it was being acquired by French conglomerate Safran for $12/share in cash, in a deal worth $1.6B. IBM picked up enterprise data analysis firm Netezza for $27/share, in a deal valued at $1.7B. Note that big blue has made numerous acquisitions in the data analysis area over the last several years and has called the business a key growth area.
- It was an eventful week for government bond markets. Through the first couple sessions prices were bid up and yields plunged. Soft economic data in both Europe and the US fanned growth concerns while widening sovereign spreads lingered in European peripheral debt markets and the Fed signaled another round of large scale asset purchases could be in the offing. The US 10-year yield traded below 2.50% for the first time in nearly a month, while the UK 10-year GILT slipped below 3.00%. Bond markets changed course by Friday though, reinvigorated by investor risk appetite and the accompanying equity rally sparked speculation of large asset allocation trades. The benchmark US 10-year yield bounced more than 10 basis points from Thursday's low, but still finished the week some 15 basis points lower at 2.6%.
- Market watchers eagerly awaited debt auctions from peripheral Eurozone states Spain, Greece and Ireland. The results were not particularly successful as yields were higher and bid-to-cover ratios lower, with the exception of short-term 13-week Greek bills. However, the lackluster auction results hardly impeded EUR/USD, as markets were relieved that the total intended amounts were sold. Still European debt concerns remained very much alive, despite Spanish PM Zapatero's statement on Wednesday that the European debt crisis was over. A somewhat disturbing counterpoint came from Irish Finance Minister Lenihan who told a local newspaper that Anglo-Irish bank, nationalized by Ireland in 2009, may not be able to pay its subordinated bonds. With the situation eerily resembling Iceland in 2008, peripheral spreads continued to widen and the Irish spread reached new highs at 420 basis points. In addition, Portugal's opposition Social Democrat party reiterated it is against further tax hikes in the 2011 budget, indicating further potential political disparities and fiscal trouble for the Eurozone.
- Dollar weakness persisted this week, hastened by the dovish FOMC statement and recurring bouts of risk appetite. EUR/USD soared to 1.3286 just after Tuesday's FOMC decision, putting the pair above its 200-day moving average. Besides dollar weakness, Euro moves were also driven by high-impact data, namely the German and Euro Zone PMI and the German IFO. The two indices came in weaker than expected, sparking renewed fears about a European economic slowdown and pushed EUR/USD briefly below the 1.3400 level as some short-term trading towards safe-haven currencies was noted in the markets.
- The broad dollar weakness sent USD/CHF to the lowest point since March 2008, below the 0.9800 level. The Swiss Franc extended losses against the Euro as the significant decline in the Swiss trade balance cast a shadow over Switzerland's economic recovery, which relies heavily on exports. With dollar weakness across the board, Cable was the most stable pair for most of the week as it traded in the narrow range around 1.56, until rising above 1.58 on Friday's market action. The Bank of England minutes, as expected, showed an 8-1 split for on interest rate policy as Sentance, the most hawkish member of the MPC, reiterated his solitary call to raise the rates by 25 bps to 0.75%.
- Trading in Asian currencies was colored by the growing prospect of a war of "competitive devaluation" between an increasingly dovish Fed, a Bank of Japan that has begun unilateral intervention, and trading partners across the world that don't want to lose export strength to a weaker dollar (emblemized by the stingy Chinese currency policy). USD/JPY decayed steadily all week, moving from above 85.90 on Monday, down to lows below 84.20 on Friday, the lowest level since Bank of Japan intervention began last week. During Friday's Asian session, there was renewed speculation about a second intervention action by the BoJ, as USD/JPY rose by 80 pips above ¥85.30, catching markets by surprise. Contrary to the first intervention, when BoJ quickly confirmed their move into the market, this time officials declined to comment on markets speculation.
- Tensions between China and Japan ratcheted up this week. As Japan apparently continued its currency intervention, a researcher from the China Academy of Social Sciences (CASS) urged policymakers to expand the purchase of Japan government debt to boost the Yen as a national response to Japan's detainment of a fishing captain in the conflict over territorial rights to the Senkaku Islands. Moreover, in a hint of "competitive incarceration," China detained four Japanese employees of a construction company Fujita for questioning over allegedly taking unauthorized video inside a military zone. Meanwhile, leaders of both China and Japan held talks with US president Obama at a UN summit in New York. Premier Wen called for expanded bilateral trade, but also ruled out a 20% Yuan appreciation requested by some of the US lawmakers, arguing a sharp adjustment would bankrupt China exporters and result in severe job losses.
- A hawkish set of comments from RBA Governor Stevens helped the Australian Dollar reach fresh two-year highs of $0.96 against USD, as well as multi-month highs against NZD, CAD and GBP. Stevens suggested that monetary policy must play a part in managing the better-than-expected economic upswing, forecasting economic growth above trend in 2011. He also stated that inflation pressure - already near the upper end of central bank's 2-3% range - is not expected to fall much further. The comments marked a clear upgrade from sentiment seen in the most recent rate decision, in which the policy board expressed comfort with its current setting. Market odds for an early October RBA rate hike have spiked above 50% and two of Australia's biggest investment banks have shifted their expectations for rate tightening coming to the next decision.
- In contrast, the New Zealand dollar decoupled from Aussie strength late in the week following much worse-than-expected GDP data, bolstering the case for RBNZ to remain on hold into 2011. Q2 q/q came in a 0.2% (below expectations for a 0.7% figure), for the second consecutive quarter of lower growth. Private spending was at a five-quarter low of 0.1% and government spending was a three-quarter low of 0.5%. A silver lining was seen in the construction space where residential building rose 11.1% q/q, a multi-year high rate of expansion. This metric is expected to increase further on future rebuilding efforts following this month's 7.1 magnitude earthquake.
Week of Monday, September 27, 2010 thru Friday, October 1, 2010
Monday, September 27, 2010
Economic
08:30 US Aug Chicago Fed NAI Index
10:30 US Sept Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index
13:00 US Treasury $36B 2-yr Auction
Tuesday, September 28, 2010
Economic
09:00 US Aug S&P/CS Home Price Index, S&P/CS Composite-20
10:00 US Sept Consumer Confidence
10:00 US Sept Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index
13:00 US Treasury $35B 5-yr Auction
16:30 API Crude Oil/Gasoline/Distillate Inventories
Wednesday, September 29, 2010
Economic
10:30 DoE Crude Oil/Gasoline/Distillate Inventories
13:00 US Treasury $29B 7-yr Auction
Thursday, September 30, 2010
Economic
08:30 US Final Q2 GDP, Q2 GDP Price Index, Q2 Personal Consumption, Q2 Core PCE , Initial Jobless Claims, Continuing Claims
09:45 US Sept Chicago Purchasing Manager Index
10:30 Natural Gas Inventories
Friday, October 01, 2010
Economic
08:30 US Aug Personal Income, Personal Spending, PCE Core, PCE Deflator
09:55 US Sept Final University of Michigan Confidence
10:00 US Sept ISM Manufacturing, Aug Construction Spending
< BR>
Please read our disclaimer:
Trading has large potential rewards, but also large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the markets. The videos are neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures or options. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Rule 4.41 - Hypothetical or simulated performance results have certain limitations. Unlike an actual performance record, simulated results do not represent actual trading. Also, since the trades have not been executed, the results may have under-or-over compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profit or losses similar to those shown. Learn to trade futures forex stocks.
08:00 Brazil Aug Unemployment
08:30 US Durable Goods Orders
10:00 US Aug New Home Sales
Todays Headlines
7:06:43 AM
(GR) Greece Fin Min Papaconstantinou: There was no discussions with the German Fin Min on broadening the rescue fund
- Note: According to an unconfirmed report, EU has not discussed loan arrangement or new terms for aid with Greece.
-German Ministry states there were no discussions on Greek loan payments. EU says Greece on track to meet conditions for aid agreement.
8:02:21 AM
(PD) Poland Central Bank Minutes: Left rates in Aug flat due to low CPI pressure
- MPC members concerned about rate hike could strengthen the zloty currency.
- Rate increase would lower the expectations in the CPI.
8:30:03 AM
*(US) INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS: 465K V 450KE; CONTINUING CLAIMS: 4.49M V 4.47ME
- Prior Initial Jobless Claims revised higher from 450K to 453K
- Prior Continuing Claims revised higher from 4.485M prior to 4.537M
10:00:02 AM
*(US) AUG EXISTING HOME SALES: 4.13M V 4.10ME (+7.6% m/m)
- Prior revised higher from 3.83M to 3.84M
- Median existing home price $178.6K v $182.1K prior (+0.8% y/y, -2% m/m)
- Total Months Supply: 11.6 months v 12.5 prior
- Distressed sales: 34% v 32% in July
- Condo sales: +8.5% m/m; -17.1% y/y
1:10:33 PM
(JP) Calls for stronger JPY voiced as Chinese response to Japan in conflict involving the Senkaku Islands - Nikkei News
- The dispute over a chain of islets in the East China Sea is stirring up public sentiment here for harsher action against Japan, with a leading Japan expert now urging the Chinese government to buy yen assets as a way of boosting the yen's value against the U.S. dollar and other currencies.
Please read our disclaimer:
Trading has large potential rewards, but also large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the markets. The videos are neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures or options. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Rule 4.41 - Hypothetical or simulated performance results have certain limitations. Unlike an actual performance record, simulated results do not represent actual trading. Also, since the trades have not been executed, the results may have under-or-over compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profit or losses similar to those shown. Learn to trade futures forex stocks.
08:00 Brazil Aug Unemployment
08:30 Initial Jobless Claims, Continuing Claims
10:00 US Aug Existing Home Sales, Aug Leading Indicators
10:30 Natural Gas Inventories
11:00 US Treasury Note Announcement
12:00 Colombia Q2 GDP
Todays Headlines
7:26:14 AM
UBS initiates US Lodging Sector Net Positive
- HOT, MAR, HST initiated Neutral, price targets $60, $42, and $18 respectively
- CHH initiated Buy, price target $36
8:00:11 AM
*(NO) NORWAY CENTRAL BANK (NORGES) LEAVES DEPOSIT RATE UNCHANGED AT 2.00%; AS EXPECTED
- Risk of future imbalances suggest rates should return to more normal levels
- Reiterates that it sees key deposit rate in 1.5-2.5% range until 27th October meeting
- Underlying inflation is somewhat below 2%
8:30:08 AM
*(CA) CANADA JULY RETAIL SALES M/M: -0.1% V +0.6%E; RETAIL SALES LESS AUTOS M/M: -0.4% V +0.4%E
- Prior retail MoM revised lower from 0.1% to 0.0%
- Prior retail less autos MoM revised lower from -0.5% to -0.6%
9:04:22 AM
(CH) China Premier Wen: FX differences with the US will be very easy to resolve, would like to improve tenor of China-US relations
- Concedes that there is a trade imbalance between US and China. but the imbalance is narrowing.
- Says trade imbalance is not intentional.
- Exchange rate is not the main cause of China-US trade imbalance.
9:14:36 AM
(US) White House Econ Advisor Volcker: Money market funds weaken the banking system; not pleased with how ratings agencies dealt with the post-crisis period
- Need to look at regulations governing money market funds.
- US economy is "way out of balance," cannot pump up the economy with consumption.
- Need arrangement that allows institutions to fail without contagion
11:06:21 AM
NY Fed: Purchased $2.07B in outright coupon purchase; dealers submitted $20.4B for consideration (bid to cover 9.8)
- Heaviest purchase $925M in the 09/15/13 maturity
- Avg bid to cover over prior four auctions is: 8.9
- Purchased maturities dated 03/15/2013 - 08/31/2014
Please read our disclaimer:
Trading has large potential rewards, but also large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the markets. The videos are neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures or options. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Rule 4.41 - Hypothetical or simulated performance results have certain limitations. Unlike an actual performance record, simulated results do not represent actual trading. Also, since the trades have not been executed, the results may have under-or-over compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profit or losses similar to those shown. Learn to trade futures forex stocks.
08:30 Canada July Retail Sales, Aug Leading Indicators
10:00 US July House Price Index
10:30 DoE Crude Oil/Gasoline/Distillate Inventories
Todays Headlines
9:30:40 AM
*(BR) BRAZIL AUGUST CURRENT ACCOUNT: -$2.9B V -$2.5BE; FOREIGN INVESTMENT (FDI): $2.4B V $2.3BE
- No revisions
- Forecasts 2010 current account deficit at $49B; trade suplus $15B and sees 2010 foreign direct investment of $30B.
8:30:02 AM
*(US) AUGUST HOUSING STARTS: 598K V 550KE (+10.5% m/m); BUILDING PERMITS: 569K V 560KE
- Prior Housing Starts revised lower from 546K to 541K
- Prior Building Permits revised lower from 565K to 559K
9:12:53 AM
(BR) Preview: Brazil Current Account and FDI expected at 09:30 ET (13:30 GMT)
**Consensus expectations
Current Account: -$2.5Be v -$4.5B prior;
Foreign Direct Investment (FDI): -$2.2Be v $2.6B prior
9:57:06 AM
(EU) ECB forex reserves w/e Sept 17th: €191.6B v €191.1B prior (update)
- Gold and gold receivables w/w -€22M at €351.95B
10:05:45 AM
European market internals update at 10:00 ET
- FTSE100 volume at 407.7M, which is 52% below its 10-day moving average
- DAX volume at 63.9M, which is 43% below its 10-day moving averag
- CAC40 volume at 86.3M, which is 50% below its 10-day moving average
Please read our disclaimer:
Trading has large potential rewards, but also large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the markets. The videos are neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures or options. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Rule 4.41 - Hypothetical or simulated performance results have certain limitations. Unlike an actual performance record, simulated results do not represent actual trading. Also, since the trades have not been executed, the results may have under-or-over compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profit or losses similar to those shown. Learn to trade futures forex stocks.
07:00 Canada Aug CPI, Core CPI
08:30 US Aug Housing Starts
09:30 Brazil Aug Current Account, Aug Foreign Direct Investment
14:15 FOMC rate decision
16:30 API Crude Oil/Gasoline/Distillate Inventories
Todays Headlines
5:27:59 AM
(UK) Moody's: UK's AAA rating to withstand economic challenges; retains stable outlook
- Despite a weak post-crisis balance sheet and challenging economic outlook, the UK is able to meet these challenges whilst maintaining its Aaa credit rating
- The country's economic outlook is also more challenging because private sector deleveraging, the uncertain state of the financial sector and slower growth in the UK's main trading partners are not conducive to allowing GDP growth to return to its pre-crisis trend rate
5:36:59 AM
*(SZ) SWISS KOF JUN ECONOMIC FORECASTS: RAISES FY10 GDP TO 2.7% V 1.8% PRIOR
- Raises FY11 GDP forecast to 1.8% v 1.6% prior
- Expects moderate slowdown in 2011 as strong swiss franc hits exporters
- Note follow's SNP econ GDP outlook boost from last week.
7:15:36 AM
(EU) ECB's Trichet: EMU states success needs states to take responsibility
- Flexible nominal wages essential for job creation.
- Estonia may urge other countries to reform; country is well equiped to deal with imbalances.
- Follow up: No comments on Irish spreads.
8:54:57 AM
*(FR) FRANCE SELLS TOTAL OF €8B IN 13, 26, 52 WEEKS BILLS
- Sells €4B in 13-week bills, avg yield 0.365% v 0.381% prior
- Sells €2.0B in 26-weeks bills; avg yield at 0.479% v 0.561% prior
- Sells €2.0B 52-week; avg yield 0.662% v 0.561% prior
11:03:48 AM
NY Fed: Purchased $5.2B in outright coupon purchase; dealers submitted $24.06B for consideration (bid to cover 4.6)
- Heaviest purchase $775M in the 03/31/17 and the 08/15/19 maturity
- Avg bid to cover over prior four auctions is: 10.8
- Purchased maturities dated 09/30/2016 - 08/15/2020
Please read our disclaimer:
Trading has large potential rewards, but also large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the markets. The videos are neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures or options. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Rule 4.41 - Hypothetical or simulated performance results have certain limitations. Unlike an actual performance record, simulated results do not represent actual trading. Also, since the trades have not been executed, the results may have under-or-over compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profit or losses similar to those shown. Learn to trade futures forex stocks.
08:30 US Aug PPI, Aug Core PPI, July Housing Starts, Q2 Current Account Balance, Initial Jobless Claims, Continuing Claims, Chile Aug Copper Exports
08:30 US Aug CPI, CPI Ex Food & Energy, CPI Core Index SA
09:55 US Sept Prelim University of Michigan Confidence
12:00 US Q2 Fed Household Wealth Survey
17:00 Colombia July Industrial Production, Retail Sales
Todays Headlines
8:30:01 AM
*(US) INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS: 450K V 459KE; CONTINUING CLAIMS: 4.485M V 4.46ME
- Prior Initial Jobless Claims revised higher from 451K to 453K
- Prior Continuing Claims revised higher from 4.478M prior to 4.569M
10:45:42 AM
(US) Treasury Sec Geithner: China "may" meet criteria for currency manipulator status at some point in the future
- Says labeling China as a "currency manipulator" would prompt more talks but not guarantee China would take action.
- US exports to China growing quickly; China's growth appears resilient, sees China growth at approx 8% over time.
- NOTE: The next semi-annual Treasury Dept currency report is due out around Oct 15
11:01:56 AM
NY Fed: Purchased $1.379B in outright coupon purchase; dealers submitted $30.16B for consideration (bid to cover 21.8)
- Heaviest purchase $738M in the 12/15/12 maturity
- Avg bid to cover over prior four auctions is: 6.8
11:27:09 AM
(GE) German Chancellor Merkel: EU needs to discuss treaty changes designed to strengthen the euro; will not support any proposal to extend the Euro safety net
- Reiterates that the EU needs sanctions for high budget deficit Euro Zone member states.
- Germany Fin Min: ECB rate is too low for Germany; currently 'relaxed' with regards to growth outlook, Germany on a good path out of the fiscal crisis
12:01:11 PM
*(TU) TURKEY CENTRAL BANK LEAVES BENCHMARK REPO RATE UNCHANGED AT 7.00%; AS EXPECTED
- Cuts overnight borrowing rate to 6.25% from 6.5%; Cuts overnight lending rate 8.75% from 9.0%
- Core inflation indicators expected to remain within medium term targets.
Please read our disclaimer:
Trading has large potential rewards, but also large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the markets. The videos are neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures or options. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Rule 4.41 - Hypothetical or simulated performance results have certain limitations. Unlike an actual performance record, simulated results do not represent actual trading. Also, since the trades have not been executed, the results may have under-or-over compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profit or losses similar to those shown. Learn to trade futures forex stocks.
08:30 US Aug PPI, Aug Core PPI, July Housing Starts, Q2 Current Account Balance, Initial Jobless Claims, Continuing Claims, Chile Aug Copper Exports
09:00 US July Long-Term TIC Flows
10:00 US Sept Philadelphia Fed
10:30 Natural Gas Inventories
Todays Headlines
7:00:11 AM
*(US) MBA MORTGAGE APPLICATIONS W.E SEPT 10TH: -8.9% V -1.5% PRIOR
- Refi's: -10.8% v +2.8% prior
- Avg Rate on 30y mortgage: 4.47% v 4.43% prior
- Purchase Index: (Seasoanlly adj) -0.4% v +1.8% prior
7:18:23 AM
(UK) Bank of England Gov King: Role of monetary policy is to assist the creation of private sector jobs - Q&A session
- Does not see neither a simple or short-term solution to credit strains.
- Banks are nervous and only lending at high rates.
- No short-term solution to bank lending problems.
8:30:02 AM
*(US) AUG IMPORT PRICE INDEX M/M: 0.6% V 0.3%E; Y/Y: 4.1% V 3.8%E
-Prior MoM revised lower from 0.2% to 0.1%
-Prior YoY revised higher from 4.9% to 5.1%
9:15:03 AM
*(US) AUG INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION: 0.2% V 0.2%E; CAPACITY UTILIZATION: 74.7% V 75.0%E
- Prior Industrial Production revised lower from 1.0% to 0.6%
- Prior Capacity Utilization revised lower from 74.8% to 74.6%
11:02:48 AM
NY Fed: Purchased $3.9B in outright coupon purchase; dealers submitted $16.6B for consideration (bid to cover 4.2)
- Heaviest purchase $797M in the 01/31/15 maturity
- Avg bid to cover over prior four auctions is: 12.8
- Purchased maturities dated 09/30/2014 - 08/31/2016
Please read our disclaimer:
Trading has large potential rewards, but also large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the markets. The videos are neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures or options. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Rule 4.41 - Hypothetical or simulated performance results have certain limitations. Unlike an actual performance record, simulated results do not represent actual trading. Also, since the trades have not been executed, the results may have under-or-over compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profit or losses similar to those shown. Learn to trade futures forex stocks.
08:00 Brazil July Retail Sales
08:30 US Aug Import Prices, Sept Empire State Manufacturing Index, Canada July Manufacturing Sales
09:15 US Aug Industrial Production, Aug Capacity Utilization
10:30 DoE Crude Oil/Gasoline/Distillate Inventories
Todays Headlines
4:31:19 AM
(GE) Germany Engineering Group (VDMA) Doubles 2010 engineering production forecast to 6% from 3%, citing good new orders in recent months
- Notes the strength in orders is being driven by South America and Asia.
**Reminder from July 20th: (GE) Germany's VDMA: Raised FY10 outlook; sees 3% output growth vs flat prior view; Machinery orders moving towards levels seen in 2006.
8:30:01 AM
*(US) AUGUST ADVANCED RETAIL SALES: 0.4% V 0.3%E; EX AUTOS: 0.6% V 0.3%E (largest rise in Adv Retail Sales in 5 months)
- Retail Sales ex Auto & Gas: 0.5% v 0.4%e
- Prior Retail Sales revised lower from 0.4% to 0.3%
- Prior Retail Sales less autos revised lower from 0.2% to 0.1%
- No revision to Prior Ex auto & gas at -0.1%
10:46:19 AM
(CA) BoC's Carney: 2009-2012 GDP may be trimmed by 9% due to financial crisis
- Highlights that the stronger capital and liquidity requirements from Basel 3 will help raise G20 GDP by 1.8%
- Sees impact to European GDP over 2009-2012 to by approx 16% due to the financial crisis.
- Expects long term benefit for G20 from new Basel 3 is expected to reach.
10:58:15 AM
(US) US Senate Panel approves $680.9B Pentagon spending bill; recommends F-35 production be cut to 32 from 42 planned; bill is without alternate engine for F-35
- Reminder: Much had been made of the push to include an alternate F-35 engine, built by GE and Rolls Royce; numerous opponents had claimed it was wasteful spending
11:51:48 AM
(CZ) Czech Central Banker: Current interest rates are not appropriate, are appropriate during a crisis
- Observing inflationary risk from power and food prices; demand is not a major component of price pressures at the moment
12:27:33 PM
(US) US Supreme Court temporarily blocks $270M Louisiana court judgement against tobacco companies
- Note that in February 2007, Tobacco companies lost part of a Louisiana appeal and were ordered to pay for stop-smoking efforts.
-The state court in New Orleans upheld part of a $591M jury verdict and the decision knocked more than $312M from the jury award
Please read our disclaimer:
Trading has large potential rewards, but also large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the markets. The videos are neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures or options. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Rule 4.41 - Hypothetical or simulated performance results have certain limitations. Unlike an actual performance record, simulated results do not represent actual trading. Also, since the trades have not been executed, the results may have under-or-over compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profit or losses similar to those shown. Learn to trade futures forex stocks.
08:00 Brazil July Retail Sales
08:30 US Aug Retail Sales
10:00 US July Business Inventories, Sept IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism
16:30 API Crude Oil/Gasoline/Distillate Inventories
Todays Headlines
4:31:19 AM
(GE) Germany Engineering Group (VDMA) Doubles 2010 engineering production forecast to 6% from 3%, citing good new orders in recent months
- Notes the strength in orders is being driven by South America and Asia.
**Reminder from July 20th: (GE) Germany's VDMA: Raised FY10 outlook; sees 3% output growth vs flat prior view; Machinery orders moving towards levels seen in 2006.
5:15:10 AM
*(IT) ITALY DEBT AGENCY (TESORO) AUCTION RESULTS: SELLS TOTAL €5.5B IN 5-YR and 40-YR BONDS (as expected)
- Sells €3.5B in 3% 2015 BTPs; avg yield 2.69% v 2.63% prior, bid-to-cover 1.44x v 1.26x prior
- Sells €2B in 5% 2040 BTPs; avg yield 4.80% v 5.08% prior, bid-to-cover 1.73x v 1.35x prior
8:00:19 AM
(EU) ECB's Trichet: Does not expect Basel III moves to hamper the global recovery; must work very actively on bank capital ratios
- Reiterates sees no risk of a double dip recession, no risk of deflation appearing.
- Advanced economies must remain vigilant to avoid deflation.
- Growth in advanced economies is more modest
- Seeing strong, sustainable growth in emerging economies
9:01:31 AM
(IT) Bank of Italy's Draghi: Italian banks can increase capital without affecting economic growth; do not expect changes to be made to agreement at G20 ratification meeting in Seoul
- Highlights taht the systemically important banks will require more capital, yet the new capital rules do not address moral hazard
- Not expecting dividend cuts in the future
11:05:00 AM
NY Fed: Purchased $3.4B in outright coupon purchase; dealers submitted $17.2B for consideration (bid to cover 5.05)
- Heaviest purchase $1.075B in the 11/15/18 maturity
- Avg bid to cover over prior four auctions is: 13.1
- Purchased maturities dated 08/15/2016 - 05/15/2020
Please read our disclaimer:
Trading has large potential rewards, but also large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the markets. The videos are neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures or options. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Rule 4.41 - Hypothetical or simulated performance results have certain limitations. Unlike an actual performance record, simulated results do not represent actual trading. Also, since the trades have not been executed, the results may have under-or-over compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profit or losses similar to those shown. Learn to trade futures forex stocks.
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